Kentucky Derby 2017 Rankings – November Edition

Nearly six months away from Kentucky Derby 2017, the following rankings are either ridiculously early, or just in time, depending on your point of view. Things will change, they always do, but at the very least, I feel better about the top two from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile than I have in a long, long time. Without further ado, I give you the ten horses I consider to be the most likely to wear the roses on the first Saturday in May…

1) Not This Time (Giant’s Causeway—Miss Macy Sue, by Trippi) Dale Romans (4-2-1-0)

A half-brother to the brilliant Liam’s Map, Not This Time is a homebred for the Albaugh Family Stable. As the name says, they were not going to sell their young star this time. The Kentucky Derby veteran trainer, Dale Romans has been high on him from the beginning, and after a learning experience in his first start, the son of top sire Giant’s Causeway has delivered the goods without fail. A runaway winner of both a maiden race at Ellis Park, and the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs in his next two starts, he came back to run a huge effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The colt just below him on this list held him off for the victory, but Not This Time was gaining strongly in the late stages. Validating the class of both, the rest of the large Juvenile field was left in their wake, as the two sprinted to the wire in a final time 2.52 seconds faster than the Juvenile Fillies. Romans knows how to get a horse ready for the first Saturday in May, and with this horse’s effortless way of moving over the track, he looks armed with his strongest ammunition yet to finally win the one race which he wants more than any other.

2) Classic Empire (Pioneerof The Nile—Sambuca Classica, by Cat Thief) Mark Casse (5-4-0-0)

John Oxley’s Classic Empire has impressed me early and often in his two-year-old season. After winning his debut in the slop, he showed great character in his initial stakes try when it looked like Recruiting Ready was home free in the Bashford Manor Stakes. Unwilling to take no for an answer, the $475,000 yearling purchase somehow ran him down in deep stretch. Unfortunately, he may have shown a little too much character when unseating his rider in his third lifetime start, which was the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes. Undeterred, the always well thought of colt came back to prove his class with two important wins around two-turns. The Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity victory at Keeneland highlighted his tactical ability, while the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile win both clinched a championship, as well as, demonstrated his heart and tenacity. The fact that he would not let Not This Time by, speaks well for his future, as I suspect this rivalry is far from over. With two victories already under his belt at Churchill Downs, and with a pedigree that suggests he can go even farther, there seems little not to like about our soon to be juvenile champion.

3) Takaful (Bernardini—Sablah, by Distorted Humor) Kiaran McLaughlin (1-1-0-0)

Since a surprising second-place finish by Closing Argument back in 2005, the Kentucky Derby has not exactly been kind to trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin. Each year of late, horses like Cairo Prince, Frosted, and Mohaymen have not made the kind of dent in the Derby that it looked like they might heading into their sophomore seasons. The veteran trainer looks only to reload, though, and in this once-out juvenile, he may again have a real horse to talk about in the next six months. The Shadwell Stable homebred could not have looked any more impressive for his unveiling less than two weeks ago. Running an excellent 6 ½ furlongs in 1:15.82 at Belmont Park; visually, the eight-length winner reminded me quite a bit of his sire. It’s obviously way too early to tell if he has what it takes to approach the accomplishments of the 2006 three-year-old champion, Bernardini, but so far so good. He has the pedigree, looks, and impressiveness for me to consider him as exciting as any prospect that has yet to make his stakes debut.

4) McCraken (Ghostzapper—Ivory Empress, by Seeking the Gold) Ian Wilkes (2-2-0-0)

“Release the McCraken!” is what supporters of the Whitham Thoroughbreds homebred could well be yelling as the field for the 2017 Kentucky Derby hits the far turn. Another colt based here in Kentucky, the son of Ghostzapper has yet to become a favorite of bettors, but that is completely understandable given trainer Ian Wilkes penchant for bringing along his horses with patience. Still the bay colt has been able to smartly score in his first two career starts, including an impressive 'blow by the field' effort last time in the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs. It was an eye-catching performance which was completed in racehorse time of 1:35.55 for the flat mile. With a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner as his sire, and Phipps blood coursing through his bloodlines from the female side, McCraken is one who should be able to appreciate things as distances increase. Look for him to get his next test in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club over Thanksgiving weekend.

5) Beach Bum (Arch—Chili Cat, by Storm Cat) Bob Baffert (1-1-0-0)

Now let’s get to the Baffert’s … A trainer to watch in any big race, this is especially true for the Kentucky Derby. I have two in a row listed that he unveiled a little too late for the Breeders’ Cup, but in plenty of time to talk Derby. This one is bred to get the distance, but looked anything like a plodder in his career debut on the afternoon after the Breeders’ Cup show left town. Taking on a large field of maidens at Santa Anita, the son of Arch had speed to stay close early through fast fractions, before taking charge of the race at the top of the lane. Final time for the 5 ¼-length win in the seven-furlong race was a solid 1:22.83. A $400,000 yearling purchase by Gary and Mary West, Beach Bum is a half-brother to the long-winded turf runner, Cat’s Claw, who won the 12-furlong Waya Stakes at Saratoga in 2014.

6) Mastery (Candy Ride—Steady Course, by Old Trieste) Bob Baffert (1-1-0-0)

He is probably the more brilliant of the two recent maiden winners from the powerful barn of Bob Baffert, but on potential for ten furlongs alone, I gave a slight edge to Beach Bum. This one is a son of one of America’s top sires in Candy Ride, and he was well thought of before making his career debut on October 22 at Santa Anita. Purchased by Cheyenne Stables in last September’s Yearling Sale at Keeneland for $425,000, Mastery was sent off as the 3-10 overwhelming favorite in the field of eight. He took command of the race early and coasted home to win by more than four lengths, with the second-place finisher more than nine ahead of the rest. The debut victory in 1:09.56 was exactly what Baffert wanted to see from the juvenile he has been touting more than any other so far this year.

7) Good Samaritan (Harlan’s Holiday—Pull Dancer, by Pulpit) Bill Mott (3-2-0-1)

It’s been nothing but turf so far for this son of Harlan’s Holiday owned in partnership by the China Horse Club and WinStar Farm. Clearly, his turf form has been excellent for trainer, Bill Mott. A first out winner at the Spa in August, he came right back to score in the Grade 2 Summer Stakes at Woodbine with a strong closing kick. Sent off as the favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, he had an unfortunate run into the first turn, which cost him some early positioning. Still, he came home full of run to finish a good third in the 14-horse field. With his turf ability and class proven, I look for the WinStar homebred to try the main track next year on the road to Louisville. While the turf breeding is there, nothing in his pedigree suggests that he will not be able to perform equally well on the dirt.

8) Totality (Tapit—Jackpot Joanie, by Giant’s Causeway) Steve Asmussen (1-1-0-0)

From the familiar duo of Winchell Thoroughbreds and Steve Asmussen, this son of the nation’s leading sire, Tapit, looked like a runner first time out. A full brother to Taxable, who finished a good second in this spring’s Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn Park, Totality came from well of the pace to score in a 6 ½-furlong maiden race at Churchill Downs on October 2 by 1 ½-lengths. He’ll make his second career start tomorrow (11/10) in a Churchill Downs allowance race, stretching out to 8 1/2 furlongs. Note that his career debut victory could become a key race, as the runner-up came right back to score in impressive fashion at Keeneland next time out.

9) J Boys Echo (Mineshaft—Letgomyecho, by Menifee) Dale Romans (2-1-1-0)

Second to Totality in his career debut, J Boys Echo made good on that experience, in which he came flying from the back of the pack, to dominate in his second career start. Facing a full field of maidens at Keeneland, he overcame a sharp steady at the top of the lane, and powered home by more than five lengths on graduation day, while stretching out to two-turns. A half-brother to 2015 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile participant Unbridled Outlaw, he was a $485,000 yearling purchase for the Albaugh Family Stable last fall at Keeneland, making him a stablemate of the top horse on this list. Look for the son of Horse of the Year Mineshaft to show up in a stakes race for his third start of the year.

10) Practical Joke (Into Mischief—Halo Humor, by Distorted Humor) Chad Brown (4-3-0-1)

Heading into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, I respected this one as an undefeated winner of both the Hopeful and Champagne, but I was concerned that the best game of the $240,000 yearling purchase might prove to be as a one-turn rallier. Following the race in which he moved up nicely to get into contention at the top of the lane, only to watch the top two pull away in the stretch, left my feelings unchanged. Still, as a two-time Grade 1 winner, and as the colt clearly the best of the rest at Santa Anita, he is the obvious choice as the third one out of the Juvenile. Having trainer, Chad Brown on his side does not hurt his chance a bit either.