Kentucky Derby 2017 Post Position Analysis

For weeks now I've been hearing that we need to wait for the draw of Kentucky Derby 2017 before making any final decisions as who to bet. Whether or not you buy into that logic, the respective post positions in the 20-horse field will play a part in how the race is run. With that in mind, let's take a look at the entire field, from the rail out, and what exactly their post position draw could mean to their chances on Saturday afternoon. But, of course, racing luck will be the final determination...

1) Lookin At Lee  (20-1)  Steve Asmussen / Corey Lanerie

I am not going to sugarcoat it -- the dreaded one-hole is the worst spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate. Having said that, it might not be all that bad for this longshot. By no means am I saying the one-post in the Kentucky Derby is anything but unlucky, but of all the horses, he might be the least affected by the unwanted post. He will drop pack and save ground, the plan anyway, and with Lanerie's penchant for finding the hole, and a little luck, he might just find running room as the field turns for home. Calvin Borel knows of what I speak. Negative draw, but not as bad as it would have been for others.

2) Thunder Snow  (20-1)  Saeed bin Surror / Christophe Soumillon

This classy, talented horse already has plenty of obstacles to overcome, and now the two-hole only makes it more likely he will encounter traffic problems. Negative draw

3) Fast and Accurate  (50-1)  Mike Maker / Channing Hill 

It was always likely that this guy would show speed, but now from the three-hole, he is even more likely to be part of the early pace, in fear of being shuffled back. Neutral draw

4) Untrapped  (30-1)  Steve Asmussen / Ricardo Santana, Jr.

Best suited to make a middle move, like one that he has uncoiled from the outside in the past, this post is not ideal. Saving ground early would be nice, but he will likely need to find room heading into the far turn. Neutral draw

5) Always Dreaming  (5-1)  Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez

On the inside third is not a bad post for this talented horse with good natural speed. The only reason I say this isn't a positive draw, is the speed close to him on both the inside and outside, which could make him expend more energy than ideal early. Neutral draw

6) State of Honor (30-1)  Mark Casse / Jose Lezcano

I have to believe that this Canadian-bred will show speed, and in the six-hole, and outside of one of the favorites, may be as good as spot as any to do just that. Neutral draw

7) Girvin  (15-1)  Joe Sharp / Mike Smith

Overall, I think the connections of the Louisiana Derby should be happy with this spot, although a little farther out might offer a better opportunity for less chance of traffic. Neutral draw

8) Hence  (15-1)  Steve Asmussen / Florent Geroux

Nothing wrong with this spot for the 2017 wise-guy horse. It now will just come down to racing luck. Neutral draw

9) Irap  (20-1)  Doug O'Neill / Mario Gutierrez

Another draw that looks good on paper. The only caveat to that, for the upset winner of the Blue Grass, would be having Battle of Midway slightly to his outside. Neutral draw

10) Gunnevera  (15-1)  Antonio Sano / Javier Castellano

This one should drop back early, and look to make one big run. Ten is just about as good a draw as any to do such. Positive draw

11) Battle of Midway  (30-1)  Jerry Hollendorfer / Flavien Prat 

With no speed for several spots to his outside, this should be a good spot to gain a positive position into the first turn for the brave runner-up of the Santa Anita Derby. Positive draw

12) Sonneteer  (50-1)  Keith Desormeaux / Kent Desormeaux

Much like Gunnevera, the maiden should drop back early, and look to make one big run. Twelve should be a good spot in which to do this. Positive draw

13) J Boys Echo  (20-1)  Dale Romans / Luis Saez

The only way this could be considered a poor draw for the Romans late runner, is if you are superstitious. Positive draw

14) Classic Empire  (4-1)  Mark Casse / Julien Leparoux

The two-year-old champion may have drawn the best post-position of all, on the far outside of the main gate. He'll have room to his right, and time to find a good position as they pass the stands for the first time. Positive draw

15) McCraken  (5-1)  Ian Wilkes / Brian Hernandez, Jr.

And if Classic Empire did not draw best, than it is this son of Ghostzapper, on the inside of the auxiliary gate. With open room to his left, he should be able to find that middle of the pack position he wants, and have a good chance to stay free of serious traffic. Positive draw

16) Tapwrit  (20-1)  Todd Pletcher / Jose Ortiz

One of the reasons for his poor performance in the Blue Grass, according to his connections, was his tardy beginning. Out in the 16-hole, he has some room to maneuver, but would still need to break well to solidify a good spot for the first half of the race. Neutral draw

17) Irish War Cry  (6-1)  Graham Motion / Rajiv Maragh

While you might not necessarily want to draw this far outside with a speed type, the good news is that there is very little early speed around him. It could give him a good shot to be forwardly placed just behind the speed to his inside. Neutral draw

18) Gormley  (15-1)   John Shirreffs / Victor Espinoza

He's pretty far out there, but the Santa Anita Derby winner might be able to draft in right behind the speedy Irish War Cry early. The early fortune of one, might be the early fortune of both. Neutral draw

19) Practical Joke (20-1)  Chad Brown / Joel Rosario

Being way outside has proven to be doable for winning Derby horses in recent years, but for a horse that might struggle to get ten furlongs, this lost ground early might be too much to overcome Negative draw

20) Patch (30-1)  Todd Pletcher / Tyler Gaffalione

So the horse with no left eye draws the far outside post of twenty, meaning he will not see any of the other 19 horses in the field out of the gate. What that ultimately means to his chances, I'm not sure, but it is interesting. I would have liked to save a bit more ground if I was a Patch supporter. Negative draw