Kentucky Derby 2015 - The Top 25

1. Texas Red (Afleet Alex - Ramatuelle (CHI), by Jeune Homme)– Cannot wait to see what the author of the best juvenile race of 2014 can do as a more mature colt. He sure looks the part of a ten furlong horse to me. Steady works at Santa Anita should have him ready for his seasonal debut which likely will come in the San Vicente on February 1, on his way to the 2015 Kentucky Derby.

2. War Story (Northern Afleet - Belle Watling, by Pulpit) – As of yet the son of Northern Afleet is a non-stakes winner, but I love the progression he has made in three career starts. The gelding has shown good finishes in maiden and allowance wins, as well as, a deceptively good performance after a slow break, 2nd place finish in the Lecomte. Further progression expected.

3. Imperia (Medaglia d'Oro - Cocoa Beach (CHI), by Doneraile Court) – Bred to be any kind for Godolphin and trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, I really like the way his graded stakes winning experience transferred smoothly over to the Churchill Downs dirt in last fall’s Kentucky Jockey Club. Look for Imperia to begin his three-year-old season in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds.

4. Blofeld (Quality Road - Storm Minstrel, by Storm Cat) – The first Todd Pletcher trainee on the list, Blofeld was an evil genius in each of his three starts at two. He demonstrated a strong dose of class, tactical speed, and a good finishing kick while going undefeated against solid company. He’s yet to make it to back to the worktab in 2015, which is a bit of a concern, but there is still plenty of time to get him cranked up for Louisville.

5. Ocean Knight (Curlin - Ocean Goddess, by Stormy Atlantic) – Another of Kiaran McLaughlin’s strong group of sophomores. His maiden victory was as easy as it was impressive. Steady works at Palm Meadows indicate that he will be prepared for his second career start soon.

6. Dortmund (Big Brown - Our Josephina, by Tale of the Cat) – Unbeaten in three starts, including a terrific Los Alamitos Futurity finish, the son of the 2008 Kentucky Derby winner physically looked like a man against boys as a juvenile. Distance could be a question, but as impressive as he looked last year, it’s hard not to have him high on the list. A Robert Lewis run on February 7 should start his sophomore season.

7. Firing Line (Line of David - Sister Girl Blues, by Hold for Gold) – I’m a little surprised that this one is not getting more love after his Los Alamitos Futurity run. He did early dirty work, before finishing game as could be, while exiting only a maiden sprint. He should definitely be considered one of the big boys from a strong group out in California. An early rematch with Dortmund could be coming in a few weeks.

8. Carpe Diem (Giant's Causeway - Rebridled Dreams, by Unbridled's Song) – Hard to knock the well-bred colt who won the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, and then rallied to be 2nd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in his cross-country trek. He’s back on the worktab for trainer Todd Pletcher in hopes of being ready for the Fountain of Youth in four weeks.

9. Calculator (In Summation - Back to Basics, by Alphabet Soup) – After showing big potential at two, his maiden breaking victory in the Sham was the real deal. Parked out wide on the first turn, he still had no trouble dominating the field at Santa Anita. I need to see if he can do it at a distance, and he will need to find something on the female side of his pedigree to get that done.

10. American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile - Little Princess Emma, by Yankee Gentleman) – A deserving winner of the Eclipse Award as Juvenile Champion, considering his back-to-back, impressive Grade 1 wins. Those victories were also flattered by Texas Red and Calculator’s subsequent races. Having said that, my head tells me that classic distances might be a little farther than his best. 

11. Upstart (Flatter - Party Silks, by Touch Gold) – The first of consecutive New York-breds on the list, Upstart did nothing but run very well in each of his starts as a juvenile. While precocious enough to be a stakes winner sprinting, his breeding suggests that he will be able to succeed at longer distances, as well. Saturday’s Holy Bull starts off his new season.

12. International Star (Fusaichi Pegasus - Parlez, by French Deputy) – This one has nice experience on all surfaces, as well as good experience going two-turns. While not overly fast, he looked good in coming off the rail to finish up with plenty of run to win the Lecomte going away. Further development is still needed, but he is in the game.

13. El Kabeir (Scat Daddy - Great Venue, by Unbridled's Song) – Nothing wrong with his last pair in winning both the Kentucky Jockey Club and the Jerome, but still I wonder if he is a horse who will look great until both the distance and the competition rise. We shall see, but for now he is numero uno of the ones wintering in New York.

14. Frosted (Tapit - Fast Cookie, by Deputy Minister) – The potential is certainly there, and I do believe that he was best in the nine furlong Remsen Stakes. His breeding and running style also offer no red flags, but on the other hand, I do question the overall quality of the horses he faced in the Remsen.

15. Ocho Ocho Ocho (Street Sense - Winner, by Horse Chestnut) – He’s undefeated and a son of the Kentucky Derby winner of 2007, so why don’t I have him higher on this list? Perhaps, I was not fully convinced with either of his stakes wins to date, but do not be surprised if he comes back even better at three.

16. Far From Over (Blame - Alchemist, by A.P. Indy) – I like the way he earned a hard fought victory over a more experienced colt in his career debut at Aqueduct. Clearly things will only get tougher from here, but you can bet that distance will not be an issue for this Pletcher runner.

17. Mr. Z (Malibu Moon - Stormy Bear, by Storm Cat) – He’s got the breeding, class, and experience to go a long way this spring, but his bolt to the right in the Smarty Jones is definitely bothersome. Is it just a reaction to the left-hand whip, has he still not learned his lessons, or could it be a sign of a physical issue on the horizon?

18. Far Right ( Notional - Zindi, by Vindication) – I liked him going into the Smarty Jones, and he certainly did nothing wrong, but I still wonder if he has the class or the want for ten furlongs to actually be a Derby winner. Having said that, he is clearly moving in the right direction for trainer Ron Moquett.

19. Blame Game (Blame - La Pascua, by Caerleon) – The son of the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner looked the part in winning his career debut last month. Step two on his ascent will be a strong allowance race on Saturday at Gulfstream Park against a stablemate and another colt on this list. He’ll be my lukewarm choice in that one, but look for him to appreciate more time and distance.

20. Materiality (Afleet Alex - Wildwood Flower, by Langfuhr) – Granted his impressive career debut came on a sloppy track, but I love the bloodlines, and how easily he made that victory look. Like the top one, he is by a Derby/Belmont winner, and his dam also produced My Miss Sophia last year. This one should be fun to watch this spring.

21. Bold Conquest (Curlin - One For Jim, by Distorted Humor) – He only won once in four starts last year for trainer Steve Asmussen, but ran well in each of them. He will need to improve this year, but is bred to do just that. He’s working steadily at Fair Grounds for a likely return in the Risen Star next month.

22. Punctuate (Distorted Humor - Peppers Pride, by Desert God) – It’s hard not to root for the son of the undefeated Peppers Pride, and his debut performance back in September was very promising. He has not run since, but has a string of works at Santa Anita in preparation for his sophomore return.

23. Itsaknockout (Lemon Drop Kid - Stormy B, by Cherokee Run) – After just getting to the wire a nose in front in his career debut at Gulfstream in December, this son of a Belmont winner came back to blitz his competition in his second career start. He’s heading in the right direction and looks ready for his stakes debut.

24. Daredevil (More Than Ready - Zindi, by Forty Niner) – #24 might seem low for the Champagne winner, but until I see more from him going two-turns on a fast track, this will be his spot for now. He just returned to the worktab for trainer Todd Pletcher in South Florida.

25. Overcontrol (Tapit - Ready for Fortune, by More Than Ready) – Impressive maiden winner for Pletcher and Repole on December 27 finds a tough allowance race against Blame Game and more on Saturday. This test comes at a flat mile, so distance questions will remain until he stretches out.