Kentucky Derby 2015: The Big Six

After too many hours to count of going over the past performances, watching the replays, studying the pedigrees, playing out the pace scenarios, and drawing on my 40-plus years of experience of watching the most exciting two minutes in sports, I have narrowed down the 2015 Kentucky Derby to six horses.

That's not to say that one of the other fourteen horses that will make up this year's field are not capable of running a very good race, and filling out a position in the exotics, but I feel confident that the horse to be draped in roses in less than a week will come from the list that I call 'The Big Six'. Considering that this is one of the deepest Kentucky Derby fields I have ever seen, the fact that I have narrowed it down to six possible winners, is a good feeling. Without further ado, here is The Big Six ...

Dortmund - I cannot find one thing in which not to like about this strapping son of Big Brown. He comes into the Derby in good form, and looks to be still improving, as evidenced by his dismantling of the Santa Anita Derby field. Dortmund has already proven the ability to win races in a variety of different styles, possessing both good tactical speed, as well as the ability to make a strong final surge to the wire. He has a win over the Churchill Downs main track. And perhaps most important of all, he is battle tested. Having been twice been through the wars with the very talented Firing Line, Dortmund has not only proven that he can persevere under trying conditions, but also that he has that experience to fall back on in the race which will undoubtedly be the most demanding of the entire field's career. If this year's Derby comes down to a two-horse battle to the wire, my money is on this one.

American Pharoah - Sometimes the Kentucky Derby is won by the most brilliant horse in the race, and often it is not. If this year's edition is indeed won by the most brilliant runner, than look no further than the 2014 Two-year-old Champion. With a high cruising speed, and an effortless stride, this son of Pioneerof The Nile has rightly impressed those around him greatly since day one. He has won four consecutive graded stakes (two last year, and two this year) in absolute crushing fashion. He's bound to be favorite after his two romping wins in Arkansas, and the appearance he makes in the mornings. I worry that he has not yet been tested, and that he may be hurt by a strong early pace more than the others on this list, but there can be no denying his obvious talent. If there is one horse in this year's field that people are talking about 50 years from now, it is most likely American Pharoah.

Carpe Diem - Poor Carpe Diem. His breeding, early ability, and good looks made him a $1.6 million purchase out of a two-year-old in training sale last March. Sent to the loaded Todd Pletcher barn, he has proven to be worth every cent of that purchase with four wins, and one second, in five career starts against quality competition. He has won both of his starts this year with great ease, finishing both the Tampa Bay Derby and the Blue Grass like more distance would be a welcome addition. He comes in the Kentucky Derby in perfect health and form; so why hasn't he earned the respect that the Bob Baffert duo has? Perhaps he is not as flashy as Dortmund and American Pharoah, but make no mistake, he is all racehorse. A middle of the pack early trip, with a strong move on the turn is how many Kentucky Derbys have been won, and that style suits Carpe Diem just fine.

Frosted - Every year there is a horse that I like a little along the way, but I really warm up to late. Last year it was Hoppertunity, but he never got the chance. This year the honor falls to Frosted. He was my Wood Memorial pick, and he was a solid winner, but at the time I wondered if beating Tencendur and El Kabeir would mean much on the first Saturday in May. I'm starting to believe. In re-watching last year's Remsen Stakes, I see a horse with plenty of talent, who will keep coming down the lane. He's beautifully bred, so it makes sense that ten furlongs will be well within his scope, but most of all, I think the changes made by trainer Kiaran McLaughlin have brought out his best. Not the least of which was a throat procedure to make sure he gets enough wind when needed. If you look at both of his Florida losses, he was in perfect position before suddenly going flat. That is not the horse I see in the Remsen and the Wood. I think the real Frosted is very dangerous.

Mubtaahij - Distance, distance, distance. Isn't that what the realtors say? If there is one horse above any other in this field that I believe will appreciate every inch of the 1 1/4 miles of the Kentucky Derby, it is the colt coming from Dubai. Earlier, I mentioned that Dortmund was battle tested, I believe the same about Mubtaahij, but for a different reason. The only Lasix-free horse in the Derby, the son of Dubawi is a glutton for work, and that coupled with the fact that international trainers build more stamina through their training methods, and you have a horse that is better equipped for the demanding nature of the Kentucky Derby than any of his U.S. counterparts. He's also run two race at a longer distance than any other horse has ever run. Is he good enough? That remains to be seen, but I believe what he was running against overseas is probably better than most Americans realize. He is poised to be the most dangerous foreign entrant into the Kentucky Derby in nearly 30 years, since the second-place finish of Bold Arrangement.

Upstart - The Holy Bull winner, and Florida Derby runner-up has tactical speed, solid experience, and possess plenty of toughness. Despite coming into the Derby off a loss, I think the last two difficult races over the especially deep surface at Gulfstream Park, should suit him well for the test he is about to face. He's already proven that he can compete with many of the best of this generation, and he doesn't need to bring his racetrack with him, already having run well at Belmont, Saratoga, Santa Anita, and Gulfstream. Rick Violette seems to be really working to get his star to peak at just the right time, and I think that will pay off handsomely at Churchill Downs. Whether that is enough to actually win the Kentucky Derby is the question, but I have little doubt that Upstart will not be one of those who disappoint on the biggest stage. And, oh by the way, of the Big Six, Upstart should have the most attractive odds.