Jockey Club Gold Cup 2016: Odds and Analysis

38 years ago, Seattle Slew bravely fought off the reigning Triple Crown winner, Affirmed, not to mention that one’s stablemate, Life’s Hope, through excruciating fractions, before being passed by the top notch handicap horse, Exceller early in the stretch. What did Slew do? A Triple Crown Champion himself, Seattle Slew, with Angel Cordero, Jr. in the irons, re-rallied and came tantalizingly close to catching Exceller on the wire. Now that was a Jockey Club Gold Cup. This year’s edition pales in comparison. Still, as a Breeders’ Cup Classic ‘Win and You’re In’ event, plus the historical significance of the race, Saturday’s featured event at Belmont Park carries its own level of importance. Topped by an evenly matched trio, let’s take a look at the expected field for this year’s Jockey Club Gold Cup, including my analysis and projected odds.

2) Mubtaahij (2-1) – Still without a win in four tries in America, this might finally be the time for the Irish-bred colt to break the ice in the States. Last time he faced Effinex, he came up 1 ½ lengths short in the Suburban. Keep in mind, though, that was his first try for his new connections, and since finishing a good second in the Dubai World Cup. Since that race, he came back with a very strong effort to split a three-horse photo with Shaman Ghost and Frosted in the Grade 1 Woodward. A similar performance here could be enough to get the win on Saturday, but the ten furlong trip should be even better for the import to the Kiaran McLaughlin barn. The ride will be important, but expect him to track Effinex early, and see who is better from the quarter pole home. I like his chances. The Top Pick

6) Effinex (8-5) – The two-time winner of the Suburban Handicap, over the same distance and track, Effinex is the one to beat in his second try in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Looking at his win-every-other-start pattern in 2016, you would expect the New York-bred ready to fire his best shot this time coming in off a fourth-place finish behind Frosted in the Whitney. He’s been rested since, with this race in mind, and he comes home to a track he clearly appreciates. He also could have a tactical advantage over the other two favorites, with his ability to be close to the lead, if need be. Under Mike Smith, he employed those same tactics beautifully to earn both of his wins this year, including the Oaklawn Handicap over Melatonin. He should have every chance to win at the top of the lane The Chief Rival  

3) Hoppertunity (5-2) – Ships in from the West Coast after avoiding California Chrome in the Awesome Again Stakes. It was a wise decision. Still, it might offer him no better finish position than he would have earned there. Certainly he is in with a better chance to win on Saturday, but I do like the top two better. If this race was full of pace, I would be singing a different tune, but with moderate early fractions expected, it is going to be tougher for him to uncork his most powerful late run. Having said that, the multiple graded stakes winner deserves full respect on class alone, and if all goes right, it certainly would be no surprise to see him in the winner’s enclosure after the race. More Pace Would Improve His Chances

4) War Story (15-1) SCRATCHED – One of these days, this Loooch Racing Stable owned gelding is probably going to break through and win something significant. Will it be on Saturday? Chances are not great, but I do like him better in here than I did in his last Grade 1. Asked to do too much following a seasonal debut romp in a Thistledown allowance race, War Story was never a factor in the Pacific Classic. Now, with one more race under his belt, a good second on the Pennsylvania Derby undercard, he gets thrown to the wolves again. Only this time, against slightly less toothy wolves. The Dark Horse

1) Protonico (12-1) – After going off the boil a little to close out 2015, this multiple graded stakes winning son of Giant’s Causeway has made just one appearance so far this year. Stumbling out of the on September 9, Protonico was a determined winner of the one-mile allowance race at Belmont Park. The win, in a sharp 1:34.00 demonstrates that the talented five-year-old still has his mind on running. In a race without much natural speed, look for him to go right after things in the opening stages. Asking him to win it might be a tall order, but depending how much Effinex lets him get away with early, he could become a very pesky entity when the real running begins. Pace Factor

5) Watershed (20-1) – After a promising start to his career, the Godolphin charge has never quite lived up to his expectations for trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin. He has been going a route of ground of late, and did have a promising allowance win at Saratoga in July, but followed that up with a less than stellar third place effort against weaker competition in the Grade 3 Philip H. Iselin at Monmouth Park. Now he stretches out to ten furlongs in a Grade 1, and frankly, I just do not see a lot here to like his chances against this bunch. Exits Disappointing Effort