Zipse: Japan’s quest for elusive Kentucky Derby triumph

Japan will win the Kentucky Derby. It’s not a matter of if. It’s a matter of when.

Forever Young came tantalizingly close one year ago. Admire Daytona and Luxor Café will be the next to try as we are inside two weeks from America’s most prestigious horse race.

Admire Daytona, a son of good sprinter Drefong, used his speed and gameness to win the rich, Grade 2 UAE Derby at Meydan in his last start. The experienced and successful international rider Christophe Lemaire will have the mount again in the Kentucky Derby.

Having been twice beaten by Luxor Café back in Japan, his win in Dubai’s biggest race for 3-year-olds flattered the other Japan entrant in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Luxor Café is bred to be a good one. A son of the Triple Crown champion American Pharoah, he is out of More Than Ready mare Mary’s Follies. He is a full brother to Café Pharoah, a multiple Group 1 stakes winner in Japan, and a half-brother to American champion turf mare Regal Glory, who was sired by Animal Kingdom.

All six of his races have come in Japan, where after two promising defeats last summer he has rattled off four straight wins. It’s worth noting that in those six starts he has faced an average field size of 13 horses.

Luxor Café is improving with each start and seems to be well equipped for the 10 furlongs of the Kentucky Derby. In his most recent start he was an eye-catching winner of the nine-furlong Fukuryu Stakes in late March. He, too, will have a top rider follow him over to America for the Kentucky Derby as João Moreira will retain the mount.

In the past Japan-based runners in the Kentucky Derby have provided a strange mix of either running too fast early or more often falling back too far.

The beautifully bred gray Ski Captain was the first Japan-based horse to attempt the Kentucky Derby but broke slowly from the auxiliary gate and could do no better than 12th in the 1995 edition won by Thunder Gulch.

Another gray Lani became a popular horse when he came to America in 2016. The son of Tapit was way back early and incredibly wide on the far turn in the Derby. His late run was good enough only for ninth behind Nyquist. He followed that up with a fifth-place finish in the Preakness and a third in the Belmont Stakes.

Bred and raced in Japan, Master Fencer also came with a late run in the Kentucky Derby. The long shot was dead last turning for home in the controversial 2019 edition but weaved through traffic on the inside and finished a good seventh, promoted to sixth, on a sloppy track.

Not all the Japan horses have come from way out of it, however. The good-looking, UAE Derby winner of 2022 was Japan’s Crown Pride. Along with the UAE Derby runner-up Summer Is Tomorrow, he set suicidal early splits at Churchill Downs. The crazy pace set up the big late run of huge long-shot winner Rich Strike.

Perhaps Derma Sotogake could have done better than a sixth-place finish behind Mage in the 2023 Kentucky Derby, but a poor break cost the Japan-based son of Mind Your Biscuits. He redeemed himself later in the year with a solid, runner-up finish in the Breeders’ Cup Classic in his next start.

Japan is learning from mistakes, sharing information and discovering how to best prepare their runners for big American races. The nation had a big Breeders’ Cup when Loves Only You won the Filly & Mare Turf and Marche Lorraine upset the Distaff in 2021.

In last year’s run for the roses, classy Forever Young ran a big race but prolonged bumping down the Churchill Downs stretch may have cost him. Still he lost by only a pair of noses. Japan’s other entrant T O Password also ran well. His sneaky solid performance was good for fifth out of 20.

Can Japan break through and get its first Kentucky Derby win this year?

Admire Daytona, the UAE Derby hero, is an unlikely winner May 3, in my opinion. He very well could make his presence felt early, however, and add to what looks to be a very solid pace.

Luxor Café, on the other hand, is a serious threat. His experience, training, breeding, progression and turn of foot all suggest he is coming to Churchill Downs with the ability not only to run a good race but to win.