Zipse: Is this the year for the Louisiana Derby streak's end?

While a Kentucky Derby winner has not run in the Louisiana Derby (G2) for 16 years, this could be the year the losing streak ends. 

This past weekend we saw the two early Kentucky favorites return defeated in split divisions of Oaklawn Park's Rebel Stakes. While neither Game Winner nor Improbably ran at all poorly in their respective sophomore debuts, their undefeated records went by the wayside in a pair of photo finishes, as did any air of invincibility.

This road to the roses is now even more wide open than it was a few days ago, putting Saturday's million-dollar race at Fair Grounds in the forefront.

Contested at nine furlongs over the main track, the Louisiana Derby attracted 11, and every horse in the field has something in his past performances to suggest he could make some noise on the Derby trail. In particular, I see the Top 3 as horses who potentially could become household names on the first Saturday in May.

The clear place to begin is with War of Will. Certain to go off as the favorite on Saturday, the son of War Front will once again welcome Tyler Gaffalione to the saddle. Together the pair has been perfect in three consecutive impressive victories, which also happen to be the colt's only three races so far on dirt.

A solid stakes performer last year as a juvenile grass horse, the Mark Casse-trained bay found a sloppy track for his dirt debut last November at Churchill Downs. The result was an eye-catching five length romp that thrust War of Will onto the Kentucky Derby trail. Wintering in New Orleans, he has taken to the fair surface and long stretch at Fair Grounds like a duck to water.

His first try in the Big Easy came in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) and once again, the result was eye opening. In striking position throughout, the 8-5 favorite in the large field exploded at the top of the lane, and easily drew away to victory. Suddenly one of the big names on the Derby trail, War of Will was next sent off at even money against 13 others in the Risen Star Stakes (G2).

It may not have been as easy as the Lecomte victory was, but it wasn't far off. Once again running like a push-button type of runner, the race favorite always looked like a winner as he stalked, pounced, and quickly opened up in the Fair Grounds stretch. 

Now 3-for-3 on dirt, including two on fast tracks, and one on the slop, there is an awful lot to like in War of Will. He's bred to get the distance, and he seems to be a rider's dream in his ability to get prime position in big fields early. Could another win on Saturday could send him to Louisville as the Kentucky Derby favorite? Having said all this, War of Will is not a mortal lock in this year's edition of the Louisiana Derby.

First, there is the horse that finished second to him in the Risen Star. Country House travelled to New Orleans off a pip of a maiden win at Gulfstream Park. After a promising runner-up result in his dirt debut to finish off his juvenile season, plenty was expected from the Bill Mott trainee in his 3-year-old debut. He did not disappoint.

Both slow and awkward from the gate in what was his third career start, favorite bettors had to hate their chances a few yards out of the gate in the Gulfstream Park. As it turned out, they had little to worry about. Looking like a man against boys, the son of Lookin At Lucky inhaled in competition, and announced himself as one to watch.

Building upon that visually impressive first win, Country House ran a big race behind War of Will in the Risen Star. His break from the gate was improved, but still not good in his stakes debut. Once again, he was able to uncoil an impressive rally.

He ran anything but a straight line down the stretch, repeatedly lugging in. Luis Saez had to yank him back out on numerous occasions, but still he was clearly second best, while not being pushed hard late. Country House surely still has some lessons to learn, but I believe this is a horse who has all the tools to run big in the Kentucky Derby provided he can straighten out his bad habits in time.

Then there's Spinoff. Promising early on, the son of Hard Spun ran twice as a juvenile. He was a first-out winner at Gulfstream Park for trainer Todd Pletcher way back in June. Off that sharp victory, the well-bred chestnut went right into graded stakes racing at Saratoga, where he was competitive all the way while finishing third behind a pair of very fast colts in the Saratoga Special (G2).

A small fracture discovered after that effort was repaired, but kept him away from the races for more than six months. The colt, owned and bred by the Wertheimer brothers, reappeared Feb. 22 at Tampa Bay Downs in an allowance race, and looked the part of a special horse. Tested by a stakes-experienced colt named Cave Run, Spinoff ran away with it.

The 11 3/4-length romp was every bit as impressive as it looks on paper. Coming back a month later, he is an extremely interesting new shooter against the top two in the Louisiana Derby.

As mentioned, there are numerous interesting horses entered for the signature race at Fair Grounds on Saturday, but in War of Will, Country House, and Spinoff, don't be too surprised if the million-dollar affair produces your next Kentucky Derby winner.