Is Groupie Doll Horse of the Year material?

The Breeders’ Cup may be over, but the important racing of 2012 is not. One race above all others that I’m looking forward to post-Breeders’ Cup will take place this Saturday at Aqueduct Racetrack, when that marvelous sprinting filly, Groupie Doll takes on a field of males in the Grade 1 Cigar Mile. A victory by the Buff Bradley star would not only mark the first female to win in the history of the race, but it would also mean the four-year-old filly would have scored in the two most important races of her career in succession to close out her excellent season. It’s a season that has captured the imagination of racefans throughout the nation, but today I ask, would it be enough to secure her a legitimate chance to become the 2012 Horse of the Year? Let’s take a look at some of the pros and cons of her argument.

Pro – With a win in the Cigar Mile, Groupie Doll would send her resume off to the voters on a most impressive roll. Victory on Saturday would mean that she ends 2012 with six consecutive wins, including four grade 1’s, (more than anyone in America) and a pair of grade 2’s. In this, what have you done for me lately world in which we currently live, momentum like this could be important in a tight, year-end vote.

Con – Winning the Cigar Mile would be a big feather in her cap, but for some voters, the big decision may have already been made. The Breeders’ Cup is thought of as the end-of-year World Championships, and anything that happens afterwards may be only a small blip on their radar.

Pro – Considering the way Groupie Doll has manhandled her competition in each of her last five races, including at the Breeders’ Cup, I believe it is safe to say that she dominates her division more thoroughly than any other single horse in America.

Con – Dominant in her division yes, but unfortunately for her, the female sprinter division may be the furthest removed from the glamour races of males running classic distances on the dirt.

Pro – While some of the other Horse of the Year contenders did not leave their comfort zones to finish off their seasons, Groupie Doll’s connections are thinking outside of the box with entry in a late-season, big race against males at one of the most important distances in American racing.

Con – Going into the Cigar Mile, Groupie Doll lacks a win over real topnotch competition, with fillies like Dust and Diamonds, Switch, and Musical Romance, being the classiest horses she has defeated yet this year. Saturday’s win would help, but even a victory over the likes of Stay Thirsty, Hymn Book, and Jersey Town might not look good enough compared to her competition.

Pro – Despite coming from a less glamorous division, Groupie Doll holds the advantage of girl power. The Horse of the Year voters are all human, and the popularity that comes with a girl taking on the boys may be a factor. See the last three HOTY winners for proof of this.

Con – With three straight female winners of the big award, the novelty or good feeling from selecting a girl over the boys, might have come and gone. Having another female candidate, in Royal Delta, might also lesson any thought of the popularity vote swinging towards Groupie Doll.

Pro – Groupie Doll is not only winning grade 1 races in spectacular fashion, but with a victory on Saturday, she has done it in America’s most important places, including Kentucky, New York, and Southern California. Having demonstrated her dominance, for a majority of voters to have seen in person, cannot hurt her chances.

Con – Winning in all the major racing markets is nice, but unless you win a Triple Crown race, or the Breeders’ Cup Classic, there are some who will not consider her the best of the best.

Pro – If Wise Dan is indeed the Horse of the Year favorite, it can be said that he also suffers from a lack of racing in America’s classic races.

Con – Wise Dan does have one major advantage over Groupie Doll, though, in that his season was about as close to perfect as could be. Only a somewhat unlucky, and narrow loss in the Foster, stopped him from being undefeated this year, while Groupie Doll has no real excuse in her first three races this year, other than the equipment change to blinkers since.

So where does all this leave Groupie Doll on her quest for the Horse of the Year award? First things first, she needs to continue her excellent racing in the Cigar Mile. Her attempt in the race is unique and should be appreciated. Personally, I hope we see her best on Saturday, culminating with another impressive win. After that, let the Horse of the Year chips fall where they may.