Is Astrology Beatable in the Iowa Derby?
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Three big stakes tonight at Prairie Meadows, and with all due respect to Awesome Gem and Daisy Devine, arguably the biggest star on the program is the Steve Asmussen trained colt, Astrology. A graded stakes winner at two, Astrology furthered his reputation with a strong performance in the middle jewel of the Triple Crown. That 3rd place finish, beaten less than two lengths, to division leaders Shackleford and Animal Kingdom came in his last start. Coming off such a quality race in the Preakness, pretty much guarantees that he will go
Good news for bettors if you agree with me that he is beatable. Don't get me wrong, I recognize that Astrology has the class edge and may prove much the best, but at these odds I think it makes sense to try and beat him. There are several in here that I think can step up and run big tonight, but two in particular interest me the most, and likely second and third choices Caleb's Posse and Prayer for Relief are not among them.
Chosen Miracle – Crazy right? He's only had two races, both sprints, and only in maiden and allowance company. Not so fast my friends. His last race at Arlington was terrific, when he won for fun and earned a big Beyer of 98. The son of Ghostzapper should be able to handle 1 1/16 miles, he just picked a tough spot to do it. My guess is he is near the lead early on a track that favors that type of style, and may prove very brave down the lane at big odds.
Sherriff Cogburn – His two races as a juvenile were spectacular. A maiden win in which he beat Caleb's Posse (one of the favorites tonight) by seven lengths, was followed by a runaway win in the Prairie Meadows Juvenile. Setbacks kept him off the Derby trail, and he is 0 for 2 since returning, but both losses were good enough to think he is not far from a sophomore breakthrough. This is his third race off the layoff and he had a mile race to serve as a tightener. As the likely fourth choice, the Sherriff offers solid value.
In the evening's other big races ... I do feel the big favorite in the Iowa Oaks, Daisy Devine, is also beatable, as all four of her really good races came at the Fair Grounds, but the problem is I could not find another filly in the race I really like. So, if she runs near her best race, she should be able to handle this bunch. I will play some Pick-3's with all in the Oaks, but a little more with Daisy in the winning spot. While in the Cornhusker, I like two horses quite a bit both of whom are happily 8-1 on the morning line.
Headache has had a bit of an on again, off again type of career, but if his last race is any indication, he may be ready to put it all together. I like the rail post, and the fact that he should get first jump on the leaders, as many of the favorites are more closer types. I like him the best, with Shadowbdancing being my next choice. He won this race last year at 10-1, and should have similar odds tonight. He absolutely loves this track, and I would be surprised if he is not leading the field as the horses turn for home. It Happened Again will be the third horse I play. It's not often I like two 8-1 shots as my top two picks in a race, but it's true tonight, and it was true last year when I had my biggest collect of the year in the Cornhusker Handicap.
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