Is 3 Enough for My Miss Aurelia and an Eclipse?

I have little doubt that the best three-year-old filly I saw run this year is My Miss Aurelia, but with only three races, two wins, and one grade 1 stakes victory in 2012, I wonder if the George Bolton and Stonestreet owned, and Steve Asmussen trained, filly has done enough to garner the nod as the champion sophomore filly this year.

With an easy win in the listed Mandy’s Gold Stakes at Saratoga, a tenacious victory over Questing in the $1,000,000 Cotillion Stakes at Parx Racing, and an excellent performance when second to the champion older mare, Royal Delta in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic, it would seem that My Miss Aurelia has made a strong claim for her second Eclipse Award in two seasons of racing, despite her short seasons. Did she accomplish more than her main competition for the championship? The answer may well be yes when you consider the shortcomings of her competition.

The Competition

Questing might be the strongest of her divisional rivals considering her two big, grade 1 wins in the Coaching Club American Oaks and the Alabama. She has three wins in seven starts this year, but has never won a stakes race outside of Saratoga. Perhaps most damaging to her case is her 0-for-3 record against My Miss Aurelia, including 0-for-2 this year.

Lady of Shamrock has been the most consistent sophomore filly over the entire 2012 season with a 7-4-1-1 record, including four stakes wins, with two grade ones. Her entire argument, though, rests on the turf vs. dirt argument, as all of her wins came on the grass. Was she dominant enough on the turf to win the award? A 5th place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, while not a poor race, does not bolster her chances.

Believe You Can was the clear leader of the division back in the first week of May when she collected her third stakes win of the year in the prestigious Kentucky Oaks, but has only run once since, that being a disappointing and well-beaten 3rd place finish in the Mother Goose. Her inactivity has left her as the forgotten horse in the chase for a championship.

Contested has an excellent 4-for-5 record this year, including impressive wins in the Grade 1 Acorn and Grade 1 Test, but in her only try around two-turns, she failed miserably when finishing up the track in the nine-furlong Mother Goose.

Grace Hall and In Lingerie were good enough to each collect three graded stakes wins this year, but unfortunately, neither could beat the very best in several tries, including out-of-the-money finishes in their respective Breeders’ Cup races.

With the competition outlined, the next question would be: Is there precedent for My Miss Aurelia to win an Eclipse Award with such little racing? The answer is yes … and no.

The Precedents

In the juvenile divisions, it has become almost commonplace to earn a year-end championship with only three races. See undefeated juvenile champions, Indian Blessing, Uncle Mo, and Hansen for proof of this, but then again, they all went perfect in their championship seasons. Perhaps the 2003 Eclipse Award for Action This Day provides the best hope for My Miss Aurelia. His 3-2-1-0 record is identical to hers, but keep in mind, his other two races, other than his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile win, were both in maiden special weight races. So the precedent has been set by two-year-olds, but what about more experienced horses?

In my research, I could not find a single horse of three or older that won an Eclipse Award with as few as three starts during their championship season; having said that, I did find several examples that may make it more acceptable for My Miss Aurelia to be rewarded, despite only three races this year.

In 2004, Ghostzapper was not only named Champion Older Male, but he took home the big one, Horse of the Year, while only making just four starts that year. Voters recognized that Ghostzapper was the best of the year, and were more than willing to vote accordingly, despite only four races.

In 2002 and 2003, High Chaparral made ten combined starts, but it is interesting to note that he won back-to-back Eclipse Awards, despite only one race in America each year, and one of those was a dead-heat to Johar. More recently, no one had any trouble with awarding consecutive championships to Goldikova after only one start a year in the United States.

And finally, consider the case of Left Bank, who in 2002, was named the Champion Older Male. That year, he ran only four times, winning the six-furlong Bold Ruler, running 5th in the Met Mile, winning the seven-furlong Tom Fool, before winning the nine-furlong Whitney. Meaning he won an Eclipse Award traditionally reserved for distance dirt horses while competing in only a single two-turn race the entire year.

My Miss Aurelia’s claim to a championship seems to be looking stronger all the time, but of course, each Eclipse Award is unique and very much tied in to the strength (or lack thereof) of their competition.

So the question remains … has My Miss Aurelia done enough in only three starts to deserve the three-year-old filly award? My opinion, as you may have guessed by now, is yes, she was able to prove best of her division in only the three races.