Iowa Derby 2017: Odds and Analysis
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The action will be hot Friday night at Prairie Meadows, when nine sophomore colts line up for the $250,000 Iowa Derby, as part of the 2017 Iowa Festival of Racing. Won in recent years by talented runners such as Hansen and American Freedom, the 1 1/16-mile, Grade 3 test on the dirt has not enticed any of the biggest names from this year's Triple Crown, but it does offer a nice mix of young colt, most of whom will be looking for the biggest win in their careers. Without further ado, let's take a look at the field, in order of preference, and including my projected odds ...
1) Petrov (6-1) - After a strong win in his career debut, it's been an extended dry spell for the Ron Moquett-trainee. Six consecutive stakes races have come and gone without a trip back to the winner's circle. The good news being, in all but the Arkansas Derby, he has been right there. On Friday evening, he will break from the rail, under Ricardo Santana, Jr. and should be able to use his good tactical speed to be involved throughout. He gets nine pounds from the favorite, and I see him on the lead when they straighten out. It should take a big race to go by him. Due to Win One
6) Hence (3-2) - The favorite will need a bounce-back effort after a pair of disappointing performances in the first two legs of the Triple Crown. The Calumet homebred son of Street Boss looked like a serious player when winning the rich Sunland Derby in impressive style three races back. He will likely need to employ a similar come from well back running style to win the Iowa Derby. With Mike Smith in the saddle, the talented colt certainly can succeed, but giving six to nine pounds, he is anything but a sure thing in here. The One to Beat
3) McCormick (4-1) - The progressive colt of the bunch, this homebred son of Hard Spun seems to have turned a corner for trainer Ian Wilkes. After breaking his maiden in his fourth lifetime start, he blitzed an allowance field at Churchill Downs in his return to fast dirt. Any improvement off that sharp mile one month ago, and he could find himself in the winner's circle for the third straight time. On The Rise
4) Impressive Edge (5-1) - After his allowance romp at Gulfstream Park back in March, the Dale Romans runner looked like he could be on the verge of something good. Two straight graded stakes events, the Florida Derby and Peter Pan followed, with only moderate results. He's been working well at his home base at Churchill Downs, and with the hot Robby Albarado in the irons, he may have found a good spot to make his first real run at a graded stakes win. Well Spotted
2) Silver Dust (12-1) - After a strong maiden win to close his juvenile season, there was plenty of hope for this son of Tapit in 2017. In four starts, though, this season, he has yet to connect. Having said that, the stretch-runner has not run poorly in any, and certainly rates a shot in here if he can fire his best shot. McCormick beat him last time, but that should serve as a good prep for this. Needs Best to Threaten
5) Jerrid (8-1) - This son of Mineshaft won the local prep, the Prairie Mile Stakes, nicely in his most recent start. After a string of just okay races at Oaklawn Park, it was a nice move forward, but one that came at the expense of a much weaker field than he will see on Friday. For that reason, I am not expecting him to parlay his first stakes victory into something bigger here. Stepping Up
9) Thirstforlife (15-1) - A good looking two-year-old early last year, he never quite paid off on his early potential for trainer Mark Casse, including a well-beaten seventh to close the season in the Delta Downs Jackpot. He's only made one start in 2017, finishing fifth in a turf allowance. He could improve off that effort, but a big result here would be a surprise. Return Race Not Strong
8) Line Judge (15-1) - Won three straight last year, including a pair of listed stakes, with plenty of early speed. Unfortunately, he failed in his class test in the Delta Downs Jackpot, and faded pretty badly in his return race last month. He should be one of the ones on the early lead in here. Pace Factor
7) Balandeen (20-1) - The most experienced colt in the field has been sprinting on an all-weather surface at Presque Isle Downs in his last two. While those efforts were solid, both the distance and the class of this one seem a little bit out of his reach. He should press the pace. Been Sprinting Lately
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