Indiana Derby Evening Analysis & Pick 4

Mari Hulman George (Race 6 - 8:15 ET) 1 1/16 miles Dirt

The all-stakes Pick 4 at Indiana Grand begins with this seven-horse affair of older females going 8 ½ furlongs on the dirt. The morning line favorite is (7) Cabana, who is coming off a sharp, front running win last month at Churchill Downs, but while she is definitely a danger, I like (5) Unbridledexplosion better. From the Ian Wilkes barn, the daughter of Eddington has finished first or second in nine of her eleven career starts, and comes into tonight’s race in the best form of her career. The four-year-old filly has enough tactical speed to stay in touch early, and she has demonstrated the ability to get it done on fast or sloppy tracks, which could come in handy. Look for her to win the first stakes race of her career tonight, while winning for the third straight time, and don’t be surprised to see her contending in graded stakes racing later this summer.

Michael G. Schaefer Memorial (Race 7 - 8:41 ET) 1m & 70 yards Dirt

A full field of ten are slated to go to the post in the 2015 edition of the Schaefer, and it would be a stretch to eliminate a single horse as a potential winner. While the ‘all’ button is a very reasonable option here, there is one horse that does stand out to me as extremely playable. (3) Stealcase has a ton of back class, and now healthy, looks to be primed to run big tonight. The winner of better than $400,000 lifetime comes in off an ideal prep, having made a solid move into contention in a fast edition of the seven furlong Kelly’s Landing at Churchill Downs, off a long layoff. He hung a bit late, which was understandable in his first race back, but that effort, combined with a string of solid works, should have him ready to roll at an optimum distance for the classy veteran. At 6-1 on the morning line, the Mark Casse runner looks to offer great value, and happily, HRN’s man on the scene at Indiana Grand, Scott Dick, feels even more strongly about Stealcase’s chances than I do.

Indiana Oaks (Race 8 - 9:11 ET) 1 1/16 miles Dirt

A solid field of three-year-old fillies has come together for this Grade 2 affair. So solid, in fact, that it could potentially upstage the male version one race later. Despite all the talent in here, I really do like one horse best; as my lovely wife likes to say, “Ahh Chocolate”. A lightly raced daughter of Candy Ride, (6) Ahh Chocolate has been excellent in each of her three career starts for trainer Neil Howard. She came from the clouds to roll by them all late in her career debut at Fair Grounds, before a visually impressive victory against allowance fillies at Keeneland in her second start. Most recently, she ran a deceptively good race in the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan. Wide on both turns and behind a slow early pace, she was never going to get to the loose on the lead Keen Pauline, but she ran big to loom a danger early in the stretch. The inexperienced filly was passed late by Include Betty for second, but keep in mind, that one came back to win the Grade 1 Mother Goose impressively in her next go. With a little rest between starts, I fully expect the Indiana Oaks to be her coming out party.

Indiana Derby (Race 9 - 9:41 ET) 1 1/16 miles Dirt

The signature race of Indiana Grand, the Indiana Derby usually attracts a solid field, and this year is no exception. Led by the Ohio Derby battlers, Mr. Z and Divining Rod, eight sophomores are set to go after the biggest share of the $500,000 purse. A case could be made for most in the race, and certainly the top two favorites on the morning line have earned the respect, but this is the time of year when I look for the up and coming, late developers to make their summertime move. (6) Island Town fits the bill well, and will be my top pick. The son of Hard Spun is improving with each start for trainer Ian Wilkes, and while he was not better than Fame And Power while winning the Grade 3 Matt Winn last time, I came out of the race liking both of them quite a bit. Game and improving, I am expecting a good stalking trip under Julien Leparoux, and as long as he can do it away from Churchill Downs, I look for him to continue his winning ways against the toughest field of his career.

Pick 4 Play ($64)

50-cent Pick 4 - 5 / all /6 / all  = $40

50-cent Pick 4 - 5,7 / 3 / 1,4,6,7,8,9 / 1,2,3,6 = $24