Indiana Derby 2017: Odds and Analysis
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Photo:
Heidi Carpenter
Saturday is the big night of the year in Indiana racing. Headlined by the $500,000 Indiana Derby, the card at Indiana Grand will feature six stakes races, also including the Grade 3 Indiana Oaks. As far as the state's richest and most prestigious race, the Grade 3 affair for three-year-olds drew an interesting field of eleven, led by the winner of the Blue Grass and Ohio Derby. Let's take a look a the group of sophomore males set to travel 8 1/2-furlongs over the main track at Indiana Grand ...
2) Irap (8-5) - Ending any talk that his win in the million-dollar Blue Grass was a fluke, this handsome son of Tiznow rebounded from a tough trip, poor finish in the Kentucky Derby to win a thriller over the classy Girvin in the Ohio Derby. That inspired performance came just three weeks ago, so the big boy will need to prove he can be ready to roll again quick after a hard earned victory. Note that Julien Leparoux will not be in the saddle, which is important, because in his only two rides to date on the Doug O'Neill trainee, he rode him to those pair of big wins at Keeneland and Thistledown. This time it will be Mario Gutierrez who will need to utilize his horse's tactical speed to secure good position early, which could well lead to Irap's third big win in the last four starts. Class of the Field
8) Awesome Saturday (8-1) - Despite only winning one of three, I have been thoroughly impressed with what I have seen from this lightly raced son of Any Given Saturday in three recent races at Churchill Downs. Still learning, the Bret Calhoun trained chestnut just missed twice, before dominating the talented Watch Me Whip in the last one on June 25. He did not debut until late February, and he's run well in each of his first five lifetime starts, but it was in his most recent race, where I became convinced that he is of graded stakes quality. Irap is tough, but overall, I believe he has found a good spot to make his graded stakes debut. Coming Out Party
9) Untrapped (6-1) - Trainer Steve Asmussen is on a roll after a big weekend of stakes victories in Iowa. Will this good looking son of Trappe Shot be the horse to keep things rolling for the Hall of Fame trainer? It's entirely possible, but this will be his seventh straight attempt in graded stakes racing, and he has yet to win one yet. Having said that, he has run several good races, including four times second or third in graded stakes. Most recently, he made a mild rally to finish a non-threatening third behind Irap in the Ohio Derby. Not convinced this will be the evening where he finally breaks through. Needs to Close One Out
11) Watch Me Whip (10-1) - Could not handle Awesome Saturday last time, but the lightly raced son of Smart Strike has always been very well liked by his successful connections. It certainly shows in the spots they have been picking for him this early in his career. Supplemented to this field, I expect improvement now that he has had some experience against good horses. Drawing the outside post is not ideal, but look for him to make good on some of that talent in what will be only his fourth lifetime start. Upset Possibility
3) Wild Shot (8-1) - The impressive Pat Day Mile winner will need to prove he can do it on a fast track. It looks like he will go right to the lead in here, but other than that excellent graded stakes win two starts back, he has not been able to sustain his pace down the lane in several other stakes tries, including a drubbing at the hands of Irap in the Blue Grass. Speed is always dangerous, and he has some talent, but I like others better. Should be on the Lead
10) Colonelsdarktemper (10-1) - After breaking his maiden first out in February, this son of Colonel John has been kept busy by his connections. This will be his seventh start in his first five months. He finished a good second to the classy McCraken last time in the Grade 3 Matt Winn, and in fact, has held his own all along, other than a wet track in the Pat Day Mile. I'm not convinced he has the talent to win this, but he did beat Awesome Saturday two starts back. Solid Efforts in Last Two
5) Hollywood Handsome (8-1) - Along with Society Beau and Irap, this Dallas Stewart charge is the most experienced in the field. After a solid allowance win at Churchill Downs, they decided to roll the dice with him in the final leg of the Triple Crown. That particular experience proved to be a strange one, as he clipped heels, causing rider Florent Geroux to lose his irons. He got through the ordeal unscathed, and now pops up five weeks later in Indiana. Like Untrapped, he will need to rally, but his previous stakes form leads me to believe that Untrapped has the better chance. Exits Eventful Belmont Stakes
4) Brockton George (15-1) - I have big respect for trainer, Kenny McPeek, but this entry seems a tough ask. The son of Harlan's Holiday looked good last fall finishing second in a maiden on the dirt, before a nice win on the grass. Those two maiden races at Churchill Downs, eight months ago, are all he has for racing experience. He certainly may have a future, and obviously his connections like him, but I cannot jump on his bandwagon Saturday without benefit of a single prep. A Tall Task
1) Society Beau (15-1) - Another with plenty of experience, this Neil Howard runner has finished in the money ten times already. The problem for the son of Curlin is that he has not found the winner's circle often. His first two tries in stakes company were decent, but not enough to get overly excited about. He should be passing tiring horses late, though. Needs to Step Up
6) Han Sense (12-1) - He's been all over the country, and the world, in his nine race career. There were some good results there as a two-year-old, but all the travel, and recent form this year, have me looking elsewhere. World Traveler
7) Top Credentials (30-1) - Third place finishes against allowance company at Mahoning Valley and Thistledown will not get it done against this bunch. Overmatched
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