Zipse: Improving Southlawn has a big shot in Kentucky Oaks

Less than a week removed from the most anticipated horse race of the year, there's actually another race which I can’t wait to bet. One day before the Kentucky Derby is the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, and Southlawn will be my top pick.

Although the Derby receives the lion’s share of the attention this time of the year, its sister race, the Oaks, always has been one of my favorite races of each season.

Much like the Derby, it features a big field of top young horses looking to stretch out to a distance they’ve never run before. It generally goes a long way in pointing out the best 3-year-old fillies in the nation, and from a handicapper’s perspective, it is a great betting race. It is also a race that I’ve had great success betting over the years.

With some of the best sophomore fillies in the nation, such as Faiza, Punchbowl and Julia Shining, unable to participate this year because of a lack of qualifying points, Wet Paint is the likely favorite. Her Brad Cox-trained stablemate Botanical is the likely second choice.

Both come in on winning streaks, and either could win. But they look like vulnerable favorites. Wet Paint has little early speed and has done all her best work at Oaklawn Park, primarily on sloppy tracks. Botanical, meanwhile, has done all her winning on the all-weather surface at Turfway Park.

Southlawn, on the other hand, is a filly who should have more attractive odds in the 14-horse field. Trained by Norm Casse, she has a nice running style, with enough tactical speed to stay close before finishing strongly. Most important, she has really come to hand of late for her young trainer.

A winner only once in five starts last year, 2023 has been her coming-out party. It seems that the well-bred filly just needed time to develop.

A $290,000 yearling purchase for owner Robert Masterson, Southlawn is a daughter of Pioneerof the Nile, who sired the Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Her dam is a nice Uncle Mo mare named Mo d’Amour, who competed in the 2016 edition of the Kentucky Oaks.

Working well down in New Orleans for her return to the races, she confirmed the high hopes of her connections with a breakthrough performance in a Feb. 17 allowance race at Fair Grounds. The eight-length romp signaled that she was ready for bigger things.

Facing a trio of graded-stakes winners in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) five weeks later, Southlawn was sent off as the fourth choice at odds of 7-1. In what has been a key prep for the Kentucky Oaks over the years, the improving filly outran her odds with another dominating performance under rider Reylu Gutierrez.

It’s possible a repeat performance on the first Friday in May could get the job done, but I also believe the rapidly improving filly could take another step forward in her third start of the year.

She has carried over her excellent work in the mornings from New Orleans to Louisville, turning in three sharp workouts since arriving to Churchill Downs. She seems likely to be at her very best on Friday.

Southlawn looks poised to be another success story for Casse and Masterson. As an assistant for his father, Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse, Norm worked closely with the sensational turf mare Tepin, who also was owned by Masterson.

The first-ballot Hall of Famer also took some time to develop, but she was ready to bust out on Kentucky Derby weekend eight years ago. A few races before American Pharoah began his Triple Crown quest, Tepin announced herself with a dazzling win in the Distaff Turf Mile (G2).

We can’t compare their young filly to Tepin just yet, but I am looking for a similar result on Friday. In the Kentucky Oaks, I like Southlawn.