Illinois Derby Preview: Californian Invasion
It may not be part of the road to the 2015 Kentucky Derby but the $400,000 Illinois Derby is nonetheless an important race around these parts. On Saturday afternoon, nine three-year-olds will travel 1 1/8 miles over the main track at Hawthorne Race Course in hopes of taking home the top prize in the state’s premier race for three-year-olds on the dirt. While winning the Illinois Derby will not lead to the first Saturday in May, the winners of the last few editions have gone straight to the Preakness. Here’s my rundown of the field from the rail out ...
1. Kantune 6-1 - Throw out the sloppy track, and this son of Kantharos has been right there every time. Unfortunately, that one race on the off track, was also his only try in stakes company. He looked to be on the improve this winter for trainer Mark Casse, with a good 3rd to Prospect Park, and then a stylish maiden win, but his last two are not as strong. Popular local rider, Chris Emigh will be in the irons, and will need to find that winter form in his new mount, to make serious noise in this one.
2. Verraco 5-1 - The lightly raced gray son of Old Fashioned needed to drop down into high-priced maiden claiming to break through with a win at Santa Anita in his third career start. Since then, though, he accounted for himself quite well in a pair of allowance/optional claimers at the same track, with a second on turf and a win on dirt. Now two-for-two on dirt, any further improvement for trainer Jim Cassidy makes this one a very interesting off the pace candidate to take the top prize.
3. Cross The Line 3-1 - The clear class of the field, this Jerry Hollendorfer charge is already proven in stakes company. The winner of the California Derby three starts back, he came back to be second in the El Camino Real Derby despite a tough trip, before testing the big boys in the Santa Anita Derby. He could only manage a fifth place finish that day, also his debut on dirt, but finishing within 6 ¾-lengths of Dortmund should fit well here. It should also be noted that he wasn’t far behind a couple of other likely Kentucky Derby runners in One Lucky Dane and Bolo that day. If he brings his ‘A’ game to Chicago, he looms the one to beat as the favorite.
4. A. Rod Again 10-1 - It seems like his connections were hoping for another General A Rod with this one, but he has not got it done so far this year after a nice maiden win last fall at Churchill Downs. Still, at double digit odds, picking up blinkers for the first time, and with Miguel Mena in the irons, there are worse options in here if you are looking for an upset possibility.
5. Conquest Curlinate 8-1 - The Canadian-bred son of Curlin will carry the familiar silks of local owners Conquest Stables in his stakes debut. A winner of 1-of-3 lifetime, he’s flashed an ability to kick it in late, and should appreciate the nine furlongs of the Illinois Derby. He will need to improve on his last, a third in an allowance at Oaklawn, but considering his lack of experience, taking a step up would be no surprise. I like others better, but I would not talk anyone off giving this one a shot in here.
6. Whiskey Ticket 7-2 - What to make of Whiskey Ticket? He’s undefeated, but he’s only run once. The good news is the Kentucky-bred son of Ghostzapper should have gotten plenty out of his game debut win in a one-mile maiden special weight at Santa Anita. The race was fast all the way around, and both him and the runner-up were clear of the rest of the field. He continues to train well for “Big Time” Bob Baffert, and Martin Pedroza follows him to Chicago for the return mount. I don’t usually pick second-timers in a race like this, but if he can get a good stalking trip behind the horse just to his outside, he has a great shot to remain undefeated.
7. Lewys Vaporizer 15-1 - The local horse should be out there winging on the lead off his romping maiden win over the track three weeks ago. Speed is always dangerous, but unfortunately for this Illinois-bred, jumping up from six furlongs to nine, and against this bunch, just seems like too much, too soon. 8. Phenomenal Phoenix 6-1 - The Summer Bird colt ran his best race yet when surprising them all in an Oaklawn Park allowance heat, which included Kantune, last time. Considering his breeding, it is certainly possible that he is now developing for trainer Donnie Von Hemel, but he still gives me the impression that he is a cut below the best in here. 9. Private Prospect 12-1 - A two-time stakes winner in Iowa as a two-year-old, he performed well last time he visited Chicago, finishing a close-up second in the Arlington Washington Futurity. They threw him to the wolves next out in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and he hasn’t finished in the money since. Closer evaluation, though, of his three losses this year at Oaklawn Park, reveal that easily the best performance of the three, was also the only one on a fast track. If you can excuse the off-track races, he merits a longshot chance here on back class alone.