Zipse: I expect Burnham Square to run strong Kentucky Derby

When I first saw Burnham Square, he was motoring down the lane at Gulfstream Park on his way to a 1 3/4-length victory over talented Tappan Street on Feb. 1 in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes. I said to myself this is a horse who could win the Kentucky Derby.

The gelded son of Liam’s Map has run two races since, first showing late interest but beaten three lengths by Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) before finishing with a burst to get up for the win in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland.

He may not be the most impressive of the 20 horses entered in this year’s run for the roses, but he is moving forward in a steady progression that could have him ready to run his best race yet for trainer Ian Wilkes.

A homebred of Janis Whitham, the gelding could give his owner her first victory in the Kentucky Derby. This will be her second attempt, having finished eighth with McCraken in the 2017 edition.

Whitham has had some fantastic horses over the years with her late husband Frank and their son Clay. Most notably she won twice at the Breeders’ Cup with Bayakoa and once with Fort Larned. Still, there is nothing like winning the Kentucky Derby. Perhaps Burnham Square can make for a fairy tale story for his 93-year-old owner.

With the Kentucky Derby draw complete and the morning-line odds set, I am pleased where Burnham Square is sitting six days from the big race.

After watching him win 2 of 3 in graded stakes this year at Gulfstream Park and Keeneland, I looked forward to seeing what he could do in a race and on a track that should be more friendly to a horse who likes to come from back in the pack.

The first part of the equation would be serious work over the Churchill Downs main track, and I got exactly that Saturday morning. Burnham Square worked a strong five furlongs on his own in 59.4 seconds. He galloped out with good energy and looked ready for more coming off the track.

I am convinced now that Wilkes has his charge in sensational shape for what will be the most important race of his career. Wilkes was the right-hand man back in 1990 when trainer Carl Nafzger had Unbridled in tip-top condition on his way to Kentucky Derby glory.

Like Burnham Square, the race record of Unbridled was not squeaky clean. He was not a favorite for that year’s Kentucky Derby, but by using steppingstones to get there and having built in some real toughness and fitness, Nafzger and Wilkes had their horse ready to roll on the first Saturday in May.

I see similar traits in Burnham Square and his preparation for this Kentucky Derby 35 years later.

Wilkes is an old-school trainer who knows how to get a horse truly prepared for a big race. They might not always be good enough when the gates spring open, but the Australia-born trainer has them ready.

A 12-1 shot on the morning line, the son of Liam’s Map should offer solid value in the field of 20. Not only do I like those odds in the win spot, but he may offer even better value in filling out the exotics.

If I could have picked a post position for the athletic, late runner, the 9 hole would be just about ideal. It would seem things are aligning quite nicely for Burnham Square and team.

Certainly, rider Brian Hernandez, Jr will be the second-most important member of the team after Burnham Square exits the paddock and makes the celebrated march to the Kentucky Derby starting gate. The horse will do the heavy lifting, but it will be up to his jockey to make all the right moves.

A Churchill Downs veteran, few riders know the track better than the 39-year-old Louisiana native. A consistent winner under the twin spires for many years, he rode Wilkes-trained and Whitham-owned Fort Larned to a Breeders’ Cup Classic victory back in 2012. He also comes into this year’s Kentucky Derby with more confidence than ever.

Not only is Hernandez winning big races left and right with 2024 horse of the year Thorpedo Anna, but he has the extra belief in himself having a Kentucky Derby victory under his belt. And he did it with a masterful ride on long shot Mystik Dan.

For all these reasons, I expect Burnham Square to run his race Saturday. We will have to wait and see if that is good enough to win it, but he will be one of my top choices in the most exciting two minutes in sports.