How the 2015 Eclipse Awards Will be Won

Champion Two-Year-Old Colt – This division will likely be decided by the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Nyquist, with his three graded stakes wins, two of which were grade 1, is unquestionably the current leader, but it may be tough for him to hold the top spot if anyone of his closest competition upsets him in the Juvenile. Certainly Brody’s Cause, Greenpointcrusader, Cocked and Loaded, and my pick for the Breeders’ Cup, Exaggerator, are only a Juvenile win away from surpassing Nyquist for the Eclipse Award. If none of them win, and the most important juvenile race in the country instead goes to a longshot, then Nyquist should have enough on his resume to become a champion.

Champion Two-Year-Old Filly – Unlike her male counterpart, I see this division leader, Songbird, as also a very likely winner of the Breeders’ Cup. If she does win her third grade 1 in the Juvenile Fillies, Songbird will be a runaway winner of the Eclipse Award. Having said that, with only two stakes wins, a loss in the Breeders’ Cup would likely knock her off the top spot. Stakes winners like Rachel’s Valentina, Gomo, Nickname, and Dothraki Queen, plus other promising fillies such as Tap to It and Land Over Sea will all be ready to move into the championship driver’s seat with a BC victory.

Champion Three-Year-Old Male – American Pharoah will win the award regardless of what happens in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Champion Three-Year-Old Filly – The first of two categories in which Lady Eli may hold a very tenuous lead. No doubt that the undefeated daughter of Divine Park would be a worthy champion, but with the opportunity for only three races in 2015, including one grade 1, the door is wide open for one of her dirt counterparts to carry the day. You could argue that I’m A Chatterbox already merits strong consideration considering the consistent year she has had, beginning in January. The four-time stakes winner might only need a strong performance in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff to win a championship, and a win in that race, would surely clinch the award. If she does not win, and another 3yo does, such as Stellar Wind, Curalina, or Include Betty, that should be enough for any of them to surpass both Lady Eli and I’m A Chatterbox. Kentucky Oaks winner, Lovely Maria, will bypass the Distaff, and therefore looks to be out of the race.

Champion Older Male Horse – A wide open division to be sure. Honor Code, with his three graded stakes wins, including a pair of Grade 1 wins in the Met Mile and the Whitney, is probably holding a slight advantage for the championship now, but the Breeders’ Cup Classic will undoubtedly answer whether or not he wins an Eclipse Award. Tonalist, the Jockey Club Gold Cup winner, and Liam’s Map, the Woodward winner, are both nipping at his heels, and will have their own Breeders’ Cup chances, albeit in different races. In the Classic, either Honor Code, Tonalist, or even Effinex would clinch the award with a victory. If none wins, Liam’s Map would move into the top spot with a Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile victory. If all are beaten, Honor Code, could hold on to the award, but if he is not close in the Classic, consideration should also be given to Shared Belief, who was so impressive in the San Antonio and Santa Anita Handicap wins, before getting hurt in his third race of the year.  

Champion Older Female Horse – As good as the respective seasons of Wedding Toast and Sheer Drama have been, not even a Breeders’ Cup Distaff win by either, coupled with a Beholder disappointment in the Classic, would be enough to unseat Beholder, currently 5-for-5 this year, as the deserving Older Female Champion of 2015.

Champion Sprinter – Private Zone, and his year-long consistency, is the leader, but Runhappy is making an impressive late-season surge to grab the championship. A win by either in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint would put this Eclipse Award to bed. If neither of the two favorites win, they would probably both lose out to the horse who ends up in the winner’s circle on Breeders’ Cup day, or possibly the ill-fated Rock Fall.

Champion Female Sprinter – Another division that is up for grabs. I could mention several fillies that have enjoyed very good seasons, but the truth of the matter is that whomever wins the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, will also win this year’s Eclipse Award.

Champion Male Turf Horse – The Pizza Man, the Arlington Million winner, and just one jump short of being a perfect 4-for-4 this year, is the current leader, but he might need to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf to secure a championship. In fact, that race will probably be the key to the Eclipse Award.  Big Blue Kitten has had an excellent all-around season, while Flintshire was dominant in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer. A win in the Turf would certainly be enough for that pair, and in fact, it could be even enough for another horse who steps up to win the huge race on October 31.

Champion Female Turf Horse - Here is another award that the 3-for-3 in 2015 Lady Eli has an opportunity to win, but her chances will go out the window if Tepin runs another big race in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Tepin has been remarkably consistent this year, and she already boasts a pair of grade 1 wins in 2015. A win in the Mile would clinch it, or even a very good performance in defeat, should be enough for her to earn the championship. If she is well beaten, though, the door becomes open for either Lady Eli, or an impressive winner of the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf.

Horse of the Year – As much as we’d like to say that an undefeated season culminating with a win in the Breeders’ Cup Classic over American Pharoah, would be enough for Beholder to make it a real horse race, in the end, I believe that becoming the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years has already locked up the Horse of the Year for American Pharoah.