Zipse: Why Hot Rod Charlie is my Breeders' Cup Classic pick

What a difference a year has made for Hot Rod Charlie.

When the Doug O’Neill-trained son on Oxbow arrived at Keeneland last fall for the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he seemed to be a hopeless long shot. One year removed from his anonymous week before the World Championships, this time around, things are far different for Hot Rod Charlie. This year he is a leading contender for the $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic.

All systems were pronounced go Saturday at Del Mar as the Grade 1 winner turned in his final serious preparations for the centerpiece of the Breeders’ Cup extravaganza. Working in company with an overmatched stablemate, he sat back early before inhaling his workmate. Turning in splits of :47.8 for the half-mile, 1:00.2 for five furlongs, 1:13 for six furlongs and 1:26.8 for seven-eighths, Hot Rod Charlie looked primed and ready for his difficult assignment on Saturday.

Difficult assignments are nothing new for the $110,000 yearling purchase. Ever since entering the starting gate in the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at odds of 94-1, he has been thrown to the wolves, and the handsome dark bay has yet to fail to respond.

You will recall how well he ran at those astronomical odds last November in Kentucky. Breaking from an outer post in the 12 hole, he worked out a great trip from the outside and rallied strongly to take over the lead from Jackie’s Warrior. Only a relentless rally by the soon-to-be champion, Essential Quality, denied him victory.

It says something about the quality of that edition of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile when the three primary participants have all come back to be even better at 3. One year after their first meeting at Keeneland, Jackie’s Warrior (the horse to beat in the Sprint), and Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie (two of the big players in the Classic) are three of the most anticipated runners in this year’s World Championships.

Although Jackie’s Warrior has become a supreme one-turn specialist, Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie have been route headliners all year long. First on the Kentucky Derby trail, then through the Triple Crown series, and finally in major races bridging the gap between the classics and the Breeders’ Cup.

The two will meet for the fourth time in the Classic, with Essential Quality proving to be Hot Rod Charlie’s biggest stumbling block to superstardom. Hot Rod Charlie did finish ahead of his champion rival in the Kentucky Derby, but both horses were narrowly beaten by Medina Spirit.

And, of course, Essential Quality denied Hot Rod Charlie not only in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but also in this year’s Belmont Stakes.

On a personal note, I have been a big fan of Hot Rod Charlie ever since he did what he did at 94-1 on Nov. 6 of last year. Everybody loves a long shot, right? I’ve bet him in every race this year, and although he is no longer a long shot, I have enjoyed watching him perform in every race.

His record may read only two wins from six starts in 2021, but he has been far better than that. Clearly best in winning a pair of million-dollar races in the Louisiana Derby (G2) and the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) last time out, he also turned in big performances in his four losing efforts while proving himself among the best of a strong 3-year-old crop.

In each of those losses – the Robert B. Lewis (G3), Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes and the Haskell Stakes (G1) - it’s hard not to like how Hot Rod Charlie ran. In the first two, he had less than perfect trips and fought hard all the way to the wire. In the last one, he was a game winner but was denied by the stewards. And in the Belmont … Well, the Belmont was where I most appreciated the horse that he is.

You don’t see many horses anymore that can sprint out in 22 seconds and change for the first quarter, get pressured all the way and stick around to give it all through the stretch of a 12-furlong race. Just like the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Essential Quality had to run huge to beat him. In defeat, Hot Rod Charlie had proven himself to be a special horse.

In many ways, I see the Belmont as a microcosm of his stakes career. He has been pressured throughout, but he just keeps going. 

On Saturday at Del Mar, my money once again will be on Hot Rod Charlie. Call me sentimental if you will, but I honestly believe this horse has a big shot and offers value as the likely fourth choice.

The three I expect to be bet ahead of him, (Knicks Go, Essential Quality and Medina Spirit) all are excellent horses who would be no surprise if they won, but I’m sticking with Charlie.

Based in Southern California, we know he can handle the distance of 10 furlongs. Working well over the Del Mar strip, he also has good tactical speed with the ability to pass horses. And despite the tough campaign, he seems to be coming up to the race better than ever. It’s a tough race, but he really does figure to be a major factor.

Yes, I will be rooting for the horse who fires every time and has more than proven himself as a fighter, but it is more than just a rooting interest. In Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, I believe Hot Rod Charlie might be ready to break though with a career-defining victory.