Handicapping the Louisiana Derby

Brian Zipse

Matt Shifman

1 - Stanford (Malibu Moon - Rosy Humor, by Distorted Humor) Looks like a typical talented horse from his famous group of connections. Having said that, he was no match for Materiality in the stretchout last time, and with a good deal of speed in here, I think Saturday only gets tougher. He should improve, but I see that only making him a threat to fill out the exotics, rather than a true win contender.

1 – Stanford [5-1] – His first three races were sprints and in those starts he ran from off the pace, closing to earn two victories. In his most recent start around two turns, the Todd Pletcher runner held the lead early on, only to fade in the stretch and veer out. Stanford ended up being disqualified and was placed 6^th behind Materiality. The nine furlong distance of the LA Derby would seem to be a challenge. In a race that has plenty of horses that want the front end, I would prefer to see him come from behind under new rider Florent Geroux.

2 - Mr. Z (Malibu Moon - Stormy Bear, by Storm Cat) The wildcard of this year's Louisiana Derby. Yes I know he has already had a plethora of chances to win a stakes race, but on the other hand, he has also run a number of nice races. If Lukas can wield his magic one more time, and he can avoid getting used up early in here, I believe Mr. Z could get very brave down the long Fair Grounds' stretch. He is one of the major dangers to my top pick in this one.

2 – Mr. Z [4-1] – Mr. Z has an experience edge on the rest of the field. This Zayat runner has shown determination down the stretch while also having a significant problem with bearing out. Since his third place finish in the Southwest, he has been training without blinkers to try and correct his erratic running style. He is always a threat to complete the trifecta.

3 - Defondo (El Corredor - Blue Hills, by Cure the Blues) Could be an improving sort for West Point and Dallas Stewart, but this $750,000 spot looks to be a little too much, too soon.

3 – Defondo [12-1] – This Dallas Stewart runner has been stabled at Fair Grounds all winter. He has only a maiden win to his credit and seems overmatched in this grade two event.

4 - Fusaichi Flame (Fusaichi Pegasus - Merry Mary, by Magic Ring) Coming off a nice slop win over the track, but of the two sons of Fusaichi Pegasus, this is not the one to fear, in my opinion.

4 – Fusaichi Flame [20-1] – His recent races were on the turf or on wet racetracks. His two wins were on the lead. He will need a downpour to have a chance.

5 - A Day in Paradise (Yes It's True - Tiz Paula, by Tiznow) I had the sincere pleasure of handing his connections the trophy last time in the Sam Houston winner's circle, after an impressive win in the Texas Heritage. Unfortunately, and as much as I respect his trainer, Larry Jones, this field is significantly tougher, so I am going to have to take a pass this time.

5 – A Day in Paradise [12-1] – This New York-bred is trained by Larry Jones and at Fair Grounds that is normally all you need to know as Jones is sending out 25% winners. The son of Yes It’s True made his only 2015 start a win in a listed stakes race at Sam Houston. He likes to be on the early pace where he will find plenty of competition. Jones will have to get this one ready to make another setup in class.

6 – War Story (Northern Afleet - Belle Watling, by Pulpit) I saw everything I wanted in the Lecomte when he got off to a bad start, before making a prolonged run to get to the lead, despite a wide trip. He flattened late, but it was the classic run of a horse ready to really improve. He did improve in the Risen Star, but was checked by the winner going into the first turn. He lost both position and ground. This time he waited a little longer to finish up a very strong second. Considering the trip, I have no doubt that he was the best horse that day. His recent workout points out his continued improvement, and I consider him strictly the one to beat in the Louisiana Derby.

6 – War Story [4-1] – This is where, Brian, you and I have a difference of opinion. I know you like War Story a lot because he did not have a very good trip in both LeComte and the Risen Star. I just watched the replays again and I saw War Story’s slow starts and I saw his wide moves around the final turn. What I did see was a horse that was soundly beaten in both of those races and that his trip did not cost him a victory. He had two different jockeys in those two stakes and ran identical races in both. Now War Story gets Joe Talamo who is a rider who is quite adept at hustling horses out of the gate. Can Talamo make the difference? War Story is my solid second choice here.

7 - Keen Ice (Curlin - Medomak, by Awesome Again) Bred to run all day, this late runner has flashed enough ability in previous stakes races to believe he my break through at some point. He should benefit from some pace to run at on Saturday. My feeling is he does not win this, but is a major threat to rally into the exotics, and could also be a threat to do the same in Louisville.

7 – Keen Ice [5-1] – He ran the best race of his career when he came running late to get third place in the Risen Star behind International Star and War Story. There should be plenty of pace up front to set up his closing move. He has a big chance to pick up the 20 Derby qualifying points available for third place to go with the 12 points previously earned.

8 - St. Joe Bay (Saint Anddan - Dream Ride, by Honor Glide) A nice enough speed horse for trainer Peter Miller, but he hasn't been able to get the job done against top horses. He will be involved early, but I cannot recommend him as a potential winner.

8 – St. Joe Bay [10-1] – He is another runner that likes to run on the lead and he should help to ensure a quick early pace in the race. The nine furlong distance seems to be too far for him.

9 - International Star (Fusaichi Pegasus - Parlez, by French Deputy) He made his own luck in the Risen Star by checking War Story heading into the first turn, helping him win his second straight stakes win at Fair Grounds. In the Louisiana Derby, I suspect his luck to run out ... nobody beats War Story three straight times! Having said that, the son of a Kentucky Derby winner is obviously a classy horse who has improved over the winter, and is one of the main contenders in here.

9 – International Star [3-1] – Since turning three-years-old, hitting the Fair Grounds track, and getting jockey Miguel Mena; International Star has become a leading contender to win the Kentucky Derby. In the Risen Star and the LeComte, this Mike Maker trainee has shown a strong closing move once along the rail and once down the middle of the track. Of course both times he soundly defeated War Story and I don’t see that changing in the Louisiana Derby.