Zipse: My picks for Santa Anita's opening day graded stakes

Temporarily washed away by winter rains in Southern California, the highly anticipated opening day card at Santa Anita Park will finally commence on Saturday -- now with six graded races in all.

The Malibu Stakes (G1) led by Omaha Beach will be the headliner, but each of the half-dozen graded stakes offers high quality fields and handicapping puzzles to sort. With that in mind, let's get down to business and pick some winners.

Race 5: San Antonio Stakes (G2)

Older dirt males will kick off the day's graded stakes in an event which features Gift Box's return. Once a well-regarded 3-year-old in the Chad Brown in New York, the now 6-year-old son of Twirling Candy finally put together all the pieces in this same race last year for his new trainer, John Sadler, when he bested Battle of Midway after a spirited battle. It should be noted that the performance came following a nine-month layoff. On Saturday he will once again return from layoff, this time away for more than seven months. Gift Box has proven he can run well off the bench and over Santa Anita's main track. He'll vie for favoritism with the streaking Midcourt, but I see him as strictly the one to beat.

For a little value, I will try to beat Midcourt for the second spot, using a couple of hard knocking horses who enter the San Antonio in good form. Gray Magician, the 3-year-old, has finished first or second in 8-of-13 career starts. Save for a sloppy Kentucky Derby, he's strung together nothing but strong races dating back to Dubai in March. I'll also use Peter Eurton-trained Draft Pick. A graded stakes winner at 3 at Santa Anita, he's come back as a consistent performer in 2019. This might be his easiest assignment since winning an allowance race in his seasonal debut.

Race 6: American Oaks (G1)

Many of the best young turf fillies in the nation are done for the year, but the afternoon's first Grade 1 may offer a fine betting opportunity. On paper, Lady Prancealot looks to be the class of the race and should go off as a pretty heavy favorite. I see her as a vulnerable betting choice, though, as she seems like the type to do her best rallying at shorter distances than the 10-furlong American Oaks trips. Also playing against her is the lack of much speed in the race.

Because of that, my top pick is Giza Goddess. A talented juvenile filly late last year, she was off for 10 months before her return two starts back. Her first two races were strong enough to show she fits with these, and she is still eligible to improve in her third start off the layoff. Finally, she has the kind of early foot to lead me to believe that she can control this classic distance race from the outset.

Race 7: La Brea Stakes (G1)

Bellafina has been the class of the lot among 3-year-old fillies based in Southern California since her stakes debut nearly a year and a half ago. Despite some less-than-stellar efforts outside her home base, she reaffirmed her status with an excellent performance in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint eight weeks ago. A repeat of that race, or any of her other stakes efforts in Southern California for that matter, would seem to have this field over the proverbial barrel. I always like to try to beat the heavy favorite, but there are a couple of races on Saturday where I just don't see them, and this is one. Bellafina's also a filly that particularly appreciates the La Brea's surface and the distance. 

Of the rest, the contender that interests me breaks from the rail for trainer Ron Ellis. First Star has only run three times, but each progressive race makes me believe that she has a real future. It also appears that this seven-furlong trip might be where the stalking filly is best suited.

Race 8: Robert J. Frankel Stakes (G3)

Older females will be highlighted in this nine-furlong affair on the lawn. It looks as if Mirth, the filly who made all the pace in last month's Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf, will go off as the favorite. The race before that, she impressively wired the Rodeo Drive (G1) at Santa Anita, so off of her last two, she is a deserving favorite. There is other speed in here, though, that will make things tough on Mirth's running style and has me wanting to take a shot against the favorite.

Curlin's Journey is the one I've landed on. She's been knocking on the door in stakes company of late, and it might now be time for the improving 4-year-old to break through with a signature victory. The daughter of Curlin broke her maiden at this same trip in May and has continued to improve since. If the pace is indeed sharp, this distance, over a turf course she seems to like, should be perfect for her late rally.

Race 9 Malibu Stakes (G1)

Omaha Beach is coming in off his first loss in five starts having finished second in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, but I do not expect it to be the start of a losing streak. With two more starts scheduled before retirement to the breeding shed, Saturday's feature looks like a perfect spot for him to record his third Grade 1 score of the year. Proven at both sprints and around two turns, the classy son of War Front should relish the seven-furlong distance. He should also be at his best in a third start of the layoff.

Despite his defeat at the Breeders' Cup, in which he fell victim to being too far off the pace of a strong front-running performance by Spun to Run, I consider Omaha Beach to be one of the two most talented 3-year-olds in the nation along with Maximum Security. I look for him to show why as the favorite on Saturday.

As for his competition, Complexity figures to be the heavy second choice off a big return win for trainer Chad Brown. A Grade 1 winner, he'll get another chance to prove he belongs with top competition, but Omaha Beach will likely prove a bit more than he can handle. It's a quality, little five-horse field in here, but perhaps the biggest threat to Omaha Beach could come from Much Better from the Bob Baffert barn. He's got speed to burn and should be out there winging on the lead.

Race 10 Mathis Brothers Mile (G2)

The string of six graded stakes will come to an end with this turf event at a flat mile. It features round three in the new rivalry between Mo Forza and Neptune's Storm. Both are graded stakes winners, and do hold a class edge over the rest of the field. In their first two encounters, Neptune's Storm was unable to run with Mo Forza in the late stages. Having said that, he's an ultra-consistent sort who is an absolute must-use in the exacta. As for the streaking winner of both previous meetings, Mo Forza has put it together of late after needing several maiden attempts to finally break through. Now a winner of three straight, he has the talent and running style to win his third straight in graded stakes company.

The top two in here seem to be the top two for very good reason, and it would come to no surprise if they fill out the exacta once again, but there are some value alternatives. One that I will throw in on my tickets is Originaire. The Irish-bred late runner should appreciate a contested early pace with many in this field liking to be on or near the lead. He was beaten by the Mo Forza and Neptune's Storm in both of the last two, but with the right pace and trip, he's my pick to ponder at long odds.