Governor Malibu led Empire Classic Odds and Analysis

While a few of the very best New York-breds in training will be making the trip west in search of Breeders’ Cup glory, most of the best Empire State runners will stay at home for their own big day at Belmont Park. Saturday’s Empire Showcase Day offers up a full 11-race card starring nothing but New York-breds. Eight of the eleven will be stakes races, totaling an attractive $1.75 million in purses. None are bigger than the Empire Classic Handicap. The $300,000, nine-furlong affair brings together a field of nine, including a three-year-old who I believe will be one of the best older horses in the nation next year. Without further ado, let’s take a look at the field in order of preference, with my projected odds…

2) Governor Malibu (2-1) – As you probably guessed, Governor Malibu is the one in which I have very high hopes for moving forward. Second in a pair of Grade 2 races, the Peter Pan and Jim Dandy, the two-time stakes winner was a very unlucky fourth between them for trainer Christophe Clement in the Belmont Stakes. He came up a little short, as many did in Arrogate’s Travers, but what I really like is what he did after that. On the verge of a breakthrough victory all summer, the son of Malibu Moon was dropped into allowance company last time to regain his confidence moving forward. With that romping win fresh in his memory bank, look for Governor Malibu to begin again and prove that he is one of the best horses in his foal crop. While this race offers solid older horses, look for this three-year-old to dominate them. Ready to Roll

9) Empire Dreams (6-1) – The defending champion of this race has only run once this year, but his comeback race at Finger Lakes was more of the same for the West Point Thoroughbreds runner, just missing by a nose. He’s a consistent runner, and that is certainly true at Belmont, where he has finished first or second in 7-of-8 starts. He should be ready for the tougher ask in his second start in 2016, and if so, he looms the biggest danger to the top pick. Defending Champ

6) Royal Posse (3-1) – Speaking of consistent older horses, this son of Posse has not finished worse than second in well over a year. Better than that, he comes if off the strongest form of his career, scoring two strong stakes wins at Saratoga. Last year, he finished second in this race, while preferred to the winner. There certainly isn’t much to dislike here, but of the best of the older horses, I like Empire Dreams just a shade better because of the return to Belmont. If this race were at the Spa, I would like this one more. Consistent as They Come

1) Wake Up in Malibu (9-2) – Was no match for Royal Posse at Saratoga, but if you look at his Belmont form, it is easy to see him as a threat in here. A few races back, he defeated that one wire-to-wire here, and most recently, he blitzed an optional claiming field, which included Keen Ice, in a very fast mile. As one of the two confirmed speed horses in the field, much will depend on how the early fractions go for him and Hit It Once More. He must be respected, but I think he would have a better chance at a little shorter than nine furlongs. Dangerous Speed

5) Hit It Once More (6-1) – The other three-year-old in the field, is also the other speed in the field. He has looked very impressive against statebreds this year, but has failed in two attempts against open stakes horses. My guess is he finds this older group closer to the latter than the former. Like the one just above him, he becomes a whole lot tougher without the other speed horse pressuring him early. I am betting that will not happen. Pace Factor

8) Clifton Pleasure (20-1) – This strapping son of Harlington has been improved of late, with a 5-2-2-1 in his latest bunch of races. Nine furlongs, with a good amount of pace to run at, could make him an interesting longshot, but you only need to look at his last race to see where he stands against the top pick. Having said that, he does seem like a reasonable option to use underneath in the exotics. Longshot Possibility

4) Good Luck Gus (15-1) – There are some nice performances to look out as you go back in this one’s pp’s, but of late, he appears less than one of the ones to beat in here. Even a return to his best form might not be enough to get the job done, but he does look like one of those horses who could pop up and run an improved one for trainer Rudy Rodriguez. Needs Better

3) Pax in Terra (20-1) – It’s not often that I would rate a Pletcher-trained, Velazquez-ridden horse as one of the outsiders, but I do with this one. There is just not enough there in his form to be overly optimistic against this group. Hard to Recommend

7) Sea Raven (20-1) – A New Yorker in Maryland in recent races, the son of Mineshaft has not won a race since July of 2015. He does add blinkers for this one, but will likely need more than that equipment change to put a serious scare into this rich stake. Blinkers Won’t Do It