Frosted led Whitney Handicap 2016: Odds and Analysis

Saturday’s $1.25 million Whitney Handicap is a big one. Once upon a time, it was the race where Onion stung the near invincible Secretariat. Then there was the great father son team of Alydar and Easy Goer, who each had their day in the glow of the Whitney winner’s circle. Last year, it was Honor Code, who waited until the last possible second to parlay a big win in the Met Mile into victory at Saratoga; a double which propelled him to an Eclipse Award as Champion Older Male. This year’s Grade 1, nine-furlong affair has another horse trying to complete the same double. Frosted won the Met Mile in incredible style eight weeks ago, but before he races off to California to represent as the East Coast’s top hope for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, he will need to beat a good field of older males ready and willing to knock him off his pedestal. Let’s take a look at the field of six, including my analysis and projected odds …

4) Frosted (4-5) – Since his amazing run on Belmont Stakes day, there have been plenty of doubters ready to call the son of Tapit a one-turn specialist, or the winner or a weak race, or finally, a horse primed to bounce off a big effort. While I know Frosted has not yet been the most consistent horse in the world, the truth of the matter is that he has run a ton of big races. Wins in the Wood Memorial and Pennsylvania Derby, both around two-turns, were big, as was his first race of the year over in Dubai. Let’s not forget about several good ones he ran in losing efforts against American Pharoah, all of which were at a distance of ground. The two-turns is not a concern to me. He did not run his best in either the Breeders’ Cup Classic or Dubai World Cup, though, which does bring into question whether he can string big races back-to-back. After having seen his performance up close in the Met Mile, a historically good performance, I do believe that he is ready to turn the corner and put all that talent together. He doesn’t need to run as well this time; 90% of the horse that ran on June 11 wins this. I like his chances. He’s The One

2) Comfort (4-1) – We’ve been down this road before. Lightly raced four-year-olds, from the Todd Pletcher barn, who prove to be major talents, have been a common theme the last few years. Liam’s Map, Graydar, and Cross Traffic for instance; the question then becomes -- Is Comfort in that class? He certainly could be. The son of Indian Charlie has missed plenty of time over the last year, but judging from his two sharp wins recently at Belmont, it seems like Comfort has plenty of the same attributes as the aforementioned late blooming Pletcher stars. He is talented, with the speed to smoothly move right up into Grade 1 racing. In the State Dinner, he really faced very little, so this will be a huge jump up in class. Still, he is a dangerous new shooter. The Up and Comer

6) Effinex (7-2) – Last year, the son of Mineshaft won a thriller in the Suburban, before coming to Saratoga only to run a non-threatening fourth in the Woodward. He tries a similar path this year, with the one big difference of coming back sooner after a hard earned win in the Suburban to go after the riches of the Whitney. In the 2015 Woodward, he had the excuse of acting up before the race. Has he gotten over his issues? Honestly I don’t know. In his first four races of this year, he has been up and down. The good Effinex is very good, but I still question if he beats Frosted at his best. For those who want to see him pull the upset, you can turn to finishing ahead of Frosted in the Breeders’ Cup. He also seems to have found his match in rider, Mike Smith. It will be interesting to see if they try to take the race to Frosted early on. Classy Foe

3) Upstart (8-1) – He got rolling a bit too late in the Met Mile, and easily could have been second, but the problem is that the winner was a pole in front and cruising to the wire. A better trip and a bigger run this time, which seem quite likely, make him an interesting candidate in here, but in the end it may come down to the top one. He’s a horse he has beaten before, but of late the rivalry has been one-way traffic on the side of Frosted. One of a string of classy New York-breds in the field, he does seem to really like Saratoga, and out of everyone, he may be the one benefitting from a strong pace. Rally up, but for how big a piece?

5) Noble Bird (10-1) – He came into last year’s Whitney as the hot horse, after having won the Grade 1 Stephen Foster. Things did not go well for him from the beginning, though. He is better than that, but on the other hand, he seems to have had plenty of chances to beat really top horses, and I have not seen it yet. In the Met Mile, he set a fast pace, and was done before the field hit the far turn. A more reasonable early pace will happen in the Whitney, which does give him hope, but with the major players wanting to be close early, I believe it is just a matter of time before they get to him. Sets the Pace

1) El Kabeir (15-1) – The talented, multiple graded stakes winner seems to be a bit of a horse without a home. Turf, sprints, routes, it’s hard to know just what kind of horse he is right now. If he were mine, I would try to find him some confidence again, before testing the best older males on the East Coast. Maybe that will happen after this one. As for his chances in the Whitney, nothing in his recent form gives me confidence that he can win this. Up Against It