Fountain of Youth Stakes 2017: Odds and Analysis

Saturday features two graded stakes on the road to the 2017 Kentucky Derby, and for my money, the most interesting one is Gulfstream Park's Fountain of Youth Stakes. Not only does the Grade 2 affair, at 1 1/16 miles on the main track, reunite the top two from the Holy Bull Stakes, but it also includes several other talented three-year-olds who look capable of throwing their hat into the ring as a serious contender for the big one, nine weeks from now at Churchill Downs. With 50 all-important Kentucky Derby qualifying points on the line to the winner, let’s take a look at the field of 11, with my projected odds and analysis …

8) Irish War Cry (9-5) – The homebred son of Curlin stepped up wonderfully in his first taste of graded stakes competition last time. The Holy Bull win was also his initial voyage around two-turns, and not surprisingly, it suited him well. Still looking a touch green, the Graham Motion charge should only get better with maturity. Now undefeated in three starts, Saturday's race should give him the opportunity to track horses early before making his move on the far turn, which also should be a good recipe for success at Gulfstream Park. It will be another learning experience for the talented New Jersey-bred, but one in which I think he will be able to come out on top and remain perfect. Primed for Another Win

2) Gunnevera (4-1) – After a very impressive romp from way back in the Delta Downs Jackpot to close out his two-year-old season, I thought his sophomore debut, when second to the top one in the Holy Bull was an excellent start to his Derby trail. He saw little pace that day, forcing him to be closer early than usual, and even found a bit of traffic at a key juncture. I'm not saying he would have won, but it was a promising performance for a horse who probably wants fast fractions up front, as well as more distance. This race, at the same distane, may be a little short for him, but the son of Dialed In will definitely have a faster early pace to chase. He should be closing well, as usual. Gets More Pace This Time

6) Practical Joke (7-2) – One of the best juveniles in the nation last year, this son of Into Mischief makes his return to the races for the nation's top trainer of 2016, Chad Brown. That alone makes him a dangerous player on Saturday, but I also believe the 8 1/2-furlong trip of the Fountain of Youth should be right up his alley. In fact, it might be his best distance in which to beat top horses of this crop, as I have a feeling that classic trips might prove longer than he prefers. Brown usually has his horses ready to fire first time out. He should make his run at the leaders before Gunnevera, which could also help. I am expecting a solid performance from him on Saturday. Classy Returner

9) Made You Look (8-1) – This son of More Than Ready has certainly done little wrong in six lifetime starts. The problem is, all of his starts to date have come on the grass. I have little problem calling one of the best 3yo turf horses in the land, but it's hard to know how that good form will translate to the main track. He was unlucky not to earn his third graded stakes victory in his last, so the class is there, and with the number of Derby contenders Pletcher already has, you'd have to think that he believes this one will take to dirt to be trying this. Pedigree-wise, there is good reason to believe he can handle the dirt. All in all, an interesting new shooter to the Derby trail. Turf to Dirt Angle

7) Three Rules (8-1) – Once the Prince of South Florida, the son of Gone Astray enters Saturday's test on a two-race losing streak. He could not keep up when the real running began in last fall's Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and he was the beaten favorite in his local return last month. Having said that, his second-place performance in the seven-furong Swale Stakes was nothing but solid. In fact, it was a solid prep for this. He also looks to be the speed of the speed in here, which is always dangerous at Gulfstream Park. Can he take them all the way? I am not a full believer as of now, but on the other hand, I recognize him as a danger. The One to Catch

5) Beasley (15-1) – He's yet to win anything other than a maiden race, but the son of Shackleford has shown steady improvement for trainer Mark Hennig in three lifetime starts. Most recently, he ran a bang-up second to the very highly regarded Battalion Runner on February 3. While the winner awaits the Grade 1 Florida Derby, this one comes right back to test that form against some of the top Derby contenders in the nation. It was a strong front-running effort that merits respect. He'll likely want to stalk Three Rules in the early going this time around, but he has shown an ability to do that in the past. This is a tough spot, but he very well could fit with these. Exits Excellent Allowance

11) Lookin For Eight (15-1) - No match for Battalion Runner in his career debut, this son of Lookin At Lucky came back to break his maiden impressively next time out. With only two lifetime starts for trainer Mark Casse, and both at seven-furlongs, he spots the rest of the field quite a bit in experience. Still, his first two starts were promising enough, and his pedigree says he will like two-turns. He could turn out to be a serious three-year-old, but I am only willing to take a wait and see approach in this one. Nice Maiden Breaker 

4) Talk Logistics (20-1) – The fourth-place finisher in the Holy Bull really had no excuses after stalking Irish War Cry early. He does have good overall form over the Gulfstream Park track, but rather than expecting a form reversal from the last one, I believe it to be more the case of proof that he is not quite good enough to win a race like this. Takes Another Shot 

1) Huracan Americo (30-1) – The son of Belmont Stakes and Breeders' Cup Classic winner, Drosselmeyer, stepped up in a big way to become a Group 1 winner in his last start. How will that 12-furlong win in Peru translate against top American three-year-olds? You never know for sure, but my guess is that this will prove to be outside of his comfort zone from both an early speed standpoint, as well as overall class. Tough Spot for U.S. Debut

10) Takaful (20-1) – Last fall's Grade 2 Remsen Stakes is proving to be less than a key race. None of the participants have come back to run big since, and that certainly includes the first start of 2017 for this son of Bernardini. Perhaps he hated the wet track in the Jerome, but still his performance in the Remsen leaves little confidence against this bunch. Even big improvement off his poor Jerome likely leaves him short of a big prize here. Last Not Encouraging

3) Quinientos (50-1) - An experienced gelding from the barn of Enrique Sanchez, this gelding only broke his maiden in his seventh and final start of 2016. In his only race this year, he was a longshot in a restricted stakes race locally, and never seriously threatened. Overmatched