Expecting Exaggerator to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

Of the 13 excellent races of this year’s Breeders’ Cup, the one in which I am most excited from a handicapping and wagering perspective is the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. On first glance, the Juvenile may appear to be one of the more wide open events in this year’s World Championships, but among the entrants is my best bet of the two-day extravaganza. Pegged as the 6-1, fourth choice on the morning line, I believe Exaggerator is one horse sitting on a proverbial big one.

On paper, Exaggerator may only appear to be one of several likely factors in the large 14-horse field, but I see much more below the surface. Trained by Keith Desormeaux, who won last year’s Juvenile with Texas Red, the dark bay colt is coming in off a second-place finish to Brody’s Cause in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity. Despite the grade 1 nature of that race, it was not the main two-year-old goal, but rather more a means to an end. Yes, I am expecting improvement off that very good effort, but let’s start at the beginning.

Plucked out of last year’s Keeneland September Sale for $110,000 by Big Chief Racing, Exaggerator (Curlin--Dawn Raid, by Vindication) made his career debut on June 5 at Santa Anita. In what turned out to be only a learning experience, the Kentucky-bred colt raced greenly, but made up ground in the stretch to finish 5th-of-10 in a very fast five furlong maiden heat. Interestingly, that maiden was won by the current division leader, and possible BC Juvenile favorite, Nyquist. While Exaggerator never looked the winner that day, it would not take long for him to get his picture taken in the winner’s circle.

Exaggerator returned for his second career start seven weeks later at Del Mar. Perhaps tipping off my belief that this horse is by no means destined to be a sprinter, he again looked to be a loser in mid-stretch of the six furlong maiden race, but that is when Exaggerator began to show his real ability, by turning it on, flying home late to just get up for the win. The maiden breaking performance gave his connections enough for them to send him East, and into graded stakes racing.

From that maiden victory, Exaggerator was sent off at 9-2 in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special. In the replay watch how determined the shipper from California was to get the win. I came away from this race both impressed, and thinking that he would appreciate more distance. The Grade 1 Hopeful, also at Saratoga, could have been next for the son of the two-time Horse of the Year, but a brief illness kept him out of that test, which was ultimately won by Railis. Over the sickness quickly, Desormeaux pointed the stakes winner for one of the most important preps for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

At the same track, and at the same distance as this year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Keeneland’s Breeders’ Futurity attracted a strong field of eleven, all of which were hoping to prove they belong in the World Championships. Despite the sickness, and a sporadic training schedule since winning the Saratoga Special, Exaggerator was the 2-1 favorite for the Grade 1 race, and frankly, he ran big.

Much like Street Sense of 2006, I see this effort as the ideal prep for the bigger test on Saturday. You’ll remember that the 2006 Juvenile Eclipse Award winner made a big move to take command of the Breeders’ Futurity before weakening just a bit late. This set him up perfectly to dismantle the Breeders' Cup field a few weeks later at Churchill Downs. I see the same pattern developing here for Exaggerator, or perhaps even more so, considering the sickness, missed training, and tackling a distance more than 6 ½ furlongs for the first time. The trainer's Hall of Fame brother, Kent Desormeaux, has chosen to retain the mount, over another solid contender trained by his brother, Swipe.

My handicapping has identified the late running Brody’s Cause as the most dangerous contender, and as close as he was to that one in losing the Breeders’ Futurity, and as much as I expect him to take a step forward this time, you can see why I am so excited to get my bet down on Exaggerator on Saturday. He is proven to have an explosive turn of foot, and to be able to overcome traffic. He looks to be thriving as a happy, healthy horse since getting to Keeneland, and one ready to make the world take notice. Without hesitation, I like Exaggerator to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.