Epicharis winning Belmont Stakes 2017? Five reasons why he can
If you think Epicharis is little more than a novelty entry into this year's Belmont Stakes, I'm here to tell you that the colt from Japan is far more than that. With a $1 million bonus offered by the NYRA on the line, this grandson of Sunday Silence is not only a legitimate player, but he could gallop away with the whole thing. Here's five reasons why I believe Epicharis could win the Test of a Champion.
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#1 - High Cruising Speed - Despite the distance, the Belmont Stakes is a race often won by horses who have enough natural speed to stay within striking distance early, and then have enough stamina to bring it home down the stretch. Secretariat's unreal performance of 1973 is the best example of this, but many editions have been won by mere mortal horses being close enough early. Unlike some international shippers, Epicharis has a very high cruising speed. The winner of four of five lifetime, he possesses plenty of speed to either be on the lead early, or be in great stalking position. From there, it becomes as much about stamina, as it does about class. All indications, is that Epicharis has plenty of both. Watch what he does in his final race at two, after setting the early pace.
#2 - The Foreign Effect - While an international runner has not scored in the Belmont Stakes since Go And Go ran away with the 1990 edition, foreign horses routinely come over to the United States and win races at 12 furlongs. Yes, while true the majority of those are on turf, even many of our long distance dirt races go to horses trained outside of the United States. The reason? Training and breeding. As true in Japan, as it is in much of the world, foreign racing nations put much more of an emphasis on races of 12 furlongs or more. You can see that over years of breeding, but also in the way horses are trained. Speed is king here in America, but overseas, stamina is vital. Epicharis will have been trained more for the distance than any of the other horses in the Belmont, and he has been trained that way since the beginning.
#3 - Look to Lani - Lani may have been unsuccessful in bringing the Belmont Stakes trophy back to his home country, but the truth is last year's Japanese runner ran a big race. His wide late rally was not quite good enough, but imagine if he had enough speed to be just a little more involved early. Even finishing third demonstrated to the Japanese that the Belmont is a race that they can not only compete in, but win. Only time will tell, but I believe this year, they are bringing a stronger horse than they did last year.
#4 - The Belmont was always the Goal - While Epicharis is clearly the best three-year-old dirt horse in Japan, and was his nation's automatic qualifier for the Kentucky Derby, it was not the Run for the Roses that his connections had their collective eyes on. Rather the Belmont was always the goal. Even when they went to Dubai to run in the $2 million UAE Derby, they let it be known that it was the final leg of our Triple Crown that would be next for him. Let me ask you this -- How many American horses are pointed for the Belmont? No, for U.S. horses it is all about the Derby, with the Belmont left for Triple Crown survivors and late developers. The fact that the Belmont was always targeted for by Epicharis is an advantage that should not be overlooked.
#5 - This one is Battle Tested - Often when foreign horses come over for important races, especially young ones, or horses from Japan, it's hard to know just what to expect. I feel differently about Epicharis. After a stellar three-race juvenile season in Japan, he has had two tough races this year. In his first race of his year, he was game to win the race that many others in the field wanted in order to qualify for the Derby. Then, in only his second start of 2017, he proved himself internationally by running a big race to be second at Dubai. It was his first loss, but a race that should do him a world of good moving forward. The Belmont Stakes will be his third start of the year, and he should be both fresh and fit, but also battle tested.