DWC Point-Counterpoint: California Chrome vs. Frosted

With a little over a month to go before the $10 million Dubai World Cup, American race fans are starting to get excited to see what the strongest group of horses we have sent over in years can do in the big race at Meydan. Chief among them is California Chrome. The 2014 Horse of the Year returns for another try after finishing second last year. Dead Heat Debates’ own, Laura Pugh says that he is the one to beat, but I have one l like better for the big race, in Frosted. Check out our discussion, and then tell us what you think … Who do you like in the 2016 Dubai World Cup?

Laura: The Dubai World Cup has reverted back to dirt, and after a year to watch a couple guinea pigs, American trainers are ready to send their best to contend! 

Brian: Hey now wait a minute … I think that California Chrome deserves more than to be called a guinea pig. He ran a good second in the world’s richest race last year, and as of right now, I like his chances for a similar placing on March 26 at Meydan.

Laura: Last year it was California Chrome and Lea who carried the American colors. This year, California Chrome will return for another crack at the world’s richest race while being joined by the Godolphin owned Frosted. Who will represent the United States the best? I believe the obvious answer to that question is California Chrome. 

Brian: They are not the only two for sure, and that is pretty exciting. I believe in the globalization of racing, and I am a big fan of seeing top American horses get it done in important international races. These days, it does not get much bigger than the World Cup. I believe the U.S. has a great shot to take home the top prize this year, but unlike you, I see Frosted as the horse to beat. His connections want this one, and I think they are in a great position to get it.

Laura: Frosted is a nice horse, but let’s face it, he got used to running in American Pharoah’s shadow last year. In 2015, the only races he won were when was he shipped away to avoid the top horses, like the Wood Memorial (where he went to avoid Upstart) and Pennsylvania Derby (where he went to avoid American Pharoah). In those races he beat Tencendur and Iron Fist. Both were winless in stakes company when he faced them and they have remained that way since.  

Brian: Frosted ran an extremely ambitious schedule last year, and he did it over the entire season. You have to admire a horse who dances every dance. After his throat surgery, he was clearly back to his best, and responded with two wins in million dollar races. By the way, Upstart finished well behind Frosted in all three meetings since the surgery. Frosted also ran several big races while finishing behind American Pharoah, the best American three-year-old in many years. His Kentucky Derby, Belmont, and Travers were all top notch. As for Tencendur and Iron Fist, they’ve each had some physical issues, but both are very talented horses who are capable of big things.

Laura: Frosted did win his prep race in Dubai impressively enough, but who was it against? It is easy to look good when you are beating up on lesser quality. When he faces a battle tested competitor like California Chrome, who is a proven grade one winner, he’ll slip back to what he does best, playing second fiddle.  

Brian: Yes, it was impressive – track record impressive. He made a good international field look like lesser quality. I am really surprised that you are going down the ‘who did he beat’ road here, because I do not think it helps your case. In his biggest career victories, California Chrome took measure of Commanding Curve and Ride On Curlin … not exactly the best Derby and Preakness runners-up we have seen, to be sure.

Laura: Chrome did have a “bad patch”, if you’d call it that, late in 2014 into early 2015. After the Preakness, he failed to win a grade one on dirt, but still only finished out of the top four once and losses came against horses such as Bayern and Shared Belief. One was in lifetime form, while the other was a horse of a lifetime. 

Brian: I know this is a debate, but I really do not want to get into the mud-slinging of putting the other horse down. California Chrome is a wonderful horse, who has already had an excellent career. I just worry that with only one race since last March so far, should we really expect him to beat a field better than he has ever beaten before? He will have one prep, so that should help, but I need to see it before getting too excited.

Laura: Let’s not forget that California Chrome was likely not quite to his best in those races. When he faced Bayern in the Classic, that race would serve as only his second race off a four-month layoff. When he ran against Shared Belief he was making his first start off a three-month layoff. Then in Dubai, he wasn’t given a chance to prep over the surface using a race, losing to a horse whom had previously raced on the surface. Outside of the Fountain of Youth, Frosted had no excuses for his losses. He was just simply second best. 

Brian: Second best to American Pharoah? I’ll take it! At two, Frosted was full of potential. At three, he was a Grade 1 horse. Judging by his four-year-old debut, I can only expect even better things from him as a more mature older horse. This is a hickory horse who thrives on racing – remember how he came right back from a tough Travers to dominate the Pennsylvania Derby? I have little doubt that Kiaran McLaughlin will have him properly prepared for his biggest tests this year, starting with the Dubai World Cup.

Laura: This year, the connections of California Chrome are preparing their horse right. You aren’t seeing overly long layoffs and they are giving him a prep race in Dubai, after giving him a good race here, with the San Pasqual Stakes. This year he is being given every chance to enter this race in top form, and if there is anything we know about Chrome, it’s that when he is managed correctly he is a winner. Unfortunately, the same can’t be said for Frosted.  

Brian: I hope he is at his best, because that will make the race all the more interesting. I think a lot of this argument for you boils down to winning percentage, and that’s fine, as it is a valuable stat. I, on the other hand, look at this more as a story of two different crops. I believe that the crop of sophomores of 2015 was significantly stronger than that of 2014. Put Frosted into the 2014 Triple Crown, and I believe he wins at least one of the three legs. That competition level, in combination with the fact that I think Frosted is still getting better, gives me a strong feeling that he can win the big one next month.

Laura: The last point everyone likes to bring up against California Chrome is his lack of success at 10 furlongs. Firstly, I wouldn’t call a win, a placing, and a showing, in three tries a lack of success. Secondly, Frosted’s success rate in races at 10 furlongs is 0%. In fact, in three tries he has only managed to come in the top three once. For a horse who is supposedly better bred to get the distance, he sure isn’t showing it on the track. 

Brian: Actually, I think both horses are pretty well proven at classic distances. Chrome in the Derby and the Preakness, and Frosted in the Kentucky Derby, Belmont, and Travers. Again, for a horse to give American Pharoah a run for his money on several instances, at ten furlongs or farther, is nothing but a feather in his cap. Ten furlongs at a track where we already know he is doing well? Bring it on!

Laura: None of this is to say Frosted is a bad racehorse. In fact, many would kill to have a horse like him in their barn. He is as hard trying and as consistent as they come, and like California Chrome, he has come back seemingly bigger and stronger with the donning of the new year. To be honest, I even think he’ll do quite well in Dubai, he may even finish second. But when all is said and done it will be California Chrome finding the wire first, not Frosted. 

Brian: Of course Frosted is not a bad horse; neither is California Chrome. In fact, they are two of the best dirt horses in the world, and I think they will prove it next month. Whether you are right, or I am right, isn’t it nice to go into the $10 million race knowing that the American contingent has a great chance for the win? I do like Frosted best in this spot, but a win by California Chrome, or by another one of the fine horses we are sending over, would be a big win for U.S. racing. This is one race that I cannot wait to see!