Dubai World Cup – Full Card Analysis

Race 2 - $1,000,000 Godolphin Mile About 1 Mile Dirt (Grade 2)

As much as I’ve believed in the potential of Marking over the past six months, I cannot get excited about betting him in this spot at 2-1 on the morning line -- there are simply too many good horses and potential winners in here. The one I ultimately landed on is Maftool. The second best three-year-old in Dubai last year, we already know that he likes both the track and the trip. He looked sharp in his return to the dirt of Dubai last month, and should sit a good trip off a solid pace in the evening’s first big race. Having said that, if you like any one of about seven others, I would not try to talk you off your top pick.

Race 3 - $1,000,000 Dubai Gold Cup About 2 Miles Turf (Grade 2)

The evening’s marathon has attracted some of the very best long-distance runners in the world. Chief among them is Vazirabad. The French four-year-old was a dominant runner in his native land, winning five consecutive turf marathons, while continually stepping up on class. He simply cannot be looked past if he runs his best at Meydan. Away since last fall, it’s possible he shows a chink in the armor, though. If you try to beat him, Manatee, Big Orange, and Haafaguinea all look to have the ability to take advantage.

Race 4 - $2,000,000 UAE Derby About 1 3/16 Miles Dirt (Grade 2)

The biggest sophomore race in Dubai, which carries mucho Kentucky Derby points for the winner, lost a little bit of luster at the beginning of the week, when we learned Market Rally was out with a stone bruise. He was going to be my selection, but now I am left with the fillies. The undefeated star, Polar River was getting short late last time and the South American filly, Vale Dori was getting to her at this same trip. I could see a similar scenario playing out in this one. Reported to be over a tooth issue, the connections of Polar River believe she will be 100% on Saturday, but at the odds, I think a shot on Vale Dori is worth the risk. She is also classy, and her sire Asiatic Boy was a big winner in this race. The American, Frank Conversation, certainly merits respect, but I worry dirt is not his best surface.

Race 5 - $1,000,000 Al Quoz Sprint About 5 Furlongs Turf (Grade 1)

I have big respect for a number of the old international pros in here, but once again, I find myself drawn to the filly. Americans know just how special a turf sprinter that Lady Shipman is, and the long straight trip should be no problem for the daughter of Midshipman. I think she is unlucky not to be riding a huge winning streak into Dubai, and I have no problem calling her our best turf sprinter. Time to show the world, in a very contentious spot – just don’t look for her to be anywhere near her 15-1 morning line odds.

Race 6 - $2,000,000 Dubai Golden Shaheen About 6 Furlongs Dirt (Grade 1)

The dash for the cash at six furlongs on the Meydan main track has attracted a salty field of ten. The morning line choice is X Y Jet from the U.S., and if he carries over his Gulfstream form, he is assuredly a big threat to win. At the odds, though, I consider the long trip to Dubai enough reason to believe that this year’s early season revelation, may not fire his best on Saturday. Take your pick among the internationals, but the one I like the best is Muarrab. The seven-year-old English-bred is 10-of-14 lifetime on the dirt, and his last is simply too good to be ignored.

Race 7 - $6,000,000 Dubai Turf About 1 1/8 Miles Turf (Grade 1)

Tryster is the hot favorite for this off his recent form, but this should prove to be his toughest test yet. Several longshots in here have the class to pull off the upset, including the South African Forries Waltz, who loves to win for trainer, Mike de Kock. Even better than him, though, I like Real Steel in this. He ran against the best in Japan last year and was always competitive. He seems to prefer the shorter trip of the Dubai Turf, after stretching out for much of 2015. After a solid prep race in Japan, back at a preferred distance, and with Ryan Moore in the saddle, I believe he can get the job done in a difficult and large field.

Race 8- $6,000,000 Dubai Sheema Classic About 1 1/2 Miles Turf (Grade 1)

Three of the best turf horses in the world are set to clash in this rich 12-furlong affair. Highland Reel has proven to be a fantastic globetrotter, but I only like the Secretariat winner third best here. Postponed was monstrous in winning the local prep, running away with the Dubai City of Gold for his third straight win, but this is tougher, and only my second pick on Saturday. Duramente is a true champion in Japan, and like other recent Japanese stars, I fully expect his class to carryover on the big international stage. His three-year-old season was fantastic, winning at a variety of distances, and he likes his turf firm. Look for him to stake his claim as the world’s best turf horse with a mild upset.

Race 9 - $10,000,000 Dubai World Cup About 1 1/4 Miles Dirt (Grade 1)

The world’s richest race has drawn a world class group of international stars, but make no mistake, this year is about the Americans. Frosted, as a Godolphin runner, has been pointed for this race from the beginning. He’s been flourishing in Dubai for the past few months, and his lone prep points out his affinity for the track, as well as what kind of older horse he is going to be. He may have been denied Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes glory by American Pharoah, but look for him to power on by in mid-stretch on the way to the biggest win of his career. California Chrome has earned favoritism, but much like last year, look for him to show just a little bit of vulnerability late from a wide trip. Any of the other horses who have competed in big races in America have a shot to make noise, but both the American-bred Teletext and the returning Candy Boy will have the kind of odds to spice up the exotics if they run their very best.