Dubai Live Longshots from ZATT
Dubai Word Cup evening has arrived. Handicapping the world’s richest card in racing can be daunting a task, especially for us nearly half a world away, but I’m willing to take a shot with a few (hopefully) very live long shots.
Race 4 – UAE Derby – Group 2, $2,000,000, 1 3/16 miles (Tapeta) – 10:25pm Eastern
OK, so I’ve touted this as a live long shot column, and my top selection in the Derby is one of the favorites, Long John, but wait … there’s more in here than just the favorites. While Long John probably only needs to run back to his run in the 2,000 Guineas to win this, I am looking at another Australian capable of running big. At 15-1 on the morning line, Paximadia has won 4-of-9 back in his native Austrailia, including a smart score in the Sandown Guineas. He disappointed in his lone race in Dubai, but that’s why we are going to see some odds today. I think the good looking Godolphin runner needed that race, and should appreciate the extra distance today. Watch out for him at big odds.
Race 7 – Dubai Duty Free – Group 1, $5,000,000, 1 1/8 miles (Turf) – 12:39pm Eastern
While American bettors might well gravitate to the fantastic mares, The Fugue and Dank, I see the South African horse, Vercingetorix as strictly the one to beat in here. He’s a perfect six from six, and has been absolutely toying with his competition since arriving to Dubai. His trainer, Mike de Kock always wins on World Cup evening, and this star looks to be his best runner this year. Getting him as the third choice might feel a little like stealing.
Race 8 – Dubai Sheema Classic – Group 1, $5,000,000, 1 ½ miles (Turf) – 1:17am Eastern
Plenty of classy horses in here, including the likes of Gentildonna, Cirrus Des Aigles, and Magician, and certainly any of the favorites could win, but I think each has enough going against them to look elsewhere. While Gentildonna is the proven Japanese commodity, I believe Denim And Ruby to be the next big thing. The young granddaughter of Sunday Silence announced herself all class with a brilliant performance in last falls’s Japan Cup, and has been turning many a head since her arrival in the Middle East. She’s only 8-1 on the morning line, but I think she is the one with a huge upside, and has a big shot to take first money today.
Race 9 – Dubai World Cup – Group 1 – $10,000,000 – 1 ¼ miles (Tapeta) – 2:05pm Eastern
This may be the most wide open edition of the World Cup that I’ve ever seen. Having said that, it’s seems like a natural fit to take a shot at horse with some odds. As much as I’d love to see my old friend Ron The Greek win big, he simply will not be worth the odds coming from the #16 post. The one I’ve landed on is Belshazzar. 12-1 on the morning line, and I’m hoping for even higher, the Japanese veteran was really hitting his best form last fall when he won the Group 1 Japan Cup Dirt. He has one prep in the books this year, and is reported to be doing well at Meydan.