Zipse: Cody’s Wish or White Abarrio? Take your pick

Predicting last year’s horse of the year was a walk in the park. A monster in horse’s clothing, Flightline reigned supreme as the best of American racing in 2022. This year’s decision is quite a bit stickier.

Flightline's tour de force in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic was one for the ages, and despite a terribly light schedule, which also included impressive wins in the Met Mile (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Classic, his dominance could not be denied. The latter two races could once again have a big say in this year’s title.

The results of the Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita created at least three candidates who would be deserving of horse of the year honors.

Ladies first. Idiomatic would be a worthy choice. Her cover-to-cover dance card of eight wins in nine starts is seldom seen these days. Hers was the anti-Flightline schedule. A brave win in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff and a flashy score in the Spinster Stakes (G1) rightfully put her in the discussion. Fair or not, however, many voters will pass her by for never having faced males.

Instead, I have a strong feeling that the choice of horse of the year will come down to the race for older dirt male champion honors. Cody’s Wish, the two-time winner of the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, and White Abarrio, the decisive winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, both bring legitimate arguments to the dinner table.

Not that it should matter in any way, but Cody’s Wish was the more logical contender coming into the season. He had an impressive 4-year-old season, which culminated with a win in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile.

White Abarrio, on the other hand, was an on-again, off-again runner as a 3-year-old. His victory early in the 2022 season of the Florida Derby (G1) was his day in the sun.

As the ball dropped to begin 2023, Cody’s Wish already was a horse of the year candidate. White Abarrio was not.

Crunching the numbers from this season would give the edge to the older contender. Both horses ran five times, with Cody’s Wish winning four times and White Abarrio three.

The 5-year-old also had the Grade 1 advantage, winning three this season, compared with two top-level victories for his younger rival.

Of course, White Abarrio won more cold hard cash this year thanks to his Breeders’ Cup Classic score. His total of nearly $3.9 million more than doubled the 2023 earnings of Cody’s Wish, who was just shy of $1.8 million.

Head-to-head competition often can be a differentiator, but in this case, it is pretty close. In fact, both horses have a win and a third in their two meetings.

I will say, however, that White Abarrio should get credit for his good third behind Cody’s Wish in the Met Mile. He stumbled at the start, rushed up into a contested pace, dropped back and then rallied down the lane to just miss second.

Conversely, Cody’s Wish never was a factor in the Whitney (G1). While White Abarrio ran away with Saratoga’s prestigious race, Cody’s Wish looked like a horse who wanted no part of 1 1/8 miles on that afternoon. The 10-length loss was his only bad race of the season, and his career for that matter.

White Abarrio also had one bad race, and it was even worse. It came at the very beginning of the season when he finished eighth in the rich Pegasus World Cup (G1) at Gulfstream Park.

Cody’s Wish rebounded from his Whitney disappointment by winning the Vosburgh (G2) and his second Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, and White Abarrio validated his romp in the Whitney by taking the $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic on the opposite coast.

Voters are only human, and although the horse of the year title should not come down to sentimentality, it would be no surprise if it did this year.

Many may like the story of trainer Rick Dutrow Jr. coming back from a harsh 10-year suspension to turn around the career of White Abarrio in a hugely positive way. But Cody’s Wish wins the feel-good competition by open lengths.

His connection with the young Cody Dorman was a special one that tugged on the heartstrings of anyone with at least a normal-sized ticker. And when his namesake passed away the day after the final win of Cody’s Wish, the story became that much more poignant. The bond between Cody’s Wish and Cody Dorman was the stuff of a Hollywood script.

It’s a tough decision to be sure, but my opinion would lean ever so slightly to White Abarrio. He won the nation’s most telling race, and I felt that he was the world’s best dirt horse.

I would have no argument with Cody’s Wish winning the horse of the year title, however, and that is probably the more likely outcome.