Classic Empire led Holy Bull 2017: Odds and Analysis

Holy Bull was a special racehorse. Having seen him run in person on several occasions, I know this to be true. The Horse of the Year of 1994, and winner of 13-of-16 lifetime starts, was one to remember. The son of Great Above is extremely deserving of having a stakes race named in his honor. Bred in Florida, he won three stakes races at Gulfstream Park, including the Hutcheson and Florida Derby during Derby prep season. Flash Forward to present day, and despite its early place on the calendar, Saturday’s feature could be one of the more important preps on the road to the 2017 Kentucky Derby. This year’s Holy Bull Stakes has attracted an excellent field which includes the 2016 Juvenile Champion, as well as a trio of other highly rated contenders. Without further ado, let’s take a look at the field, with my projected odds and analysis …

3) Classic Empire (1-1) – He’ll be the horse everyone is trying to beat in the early stages of the Kentucky Derby trail, and if he looks as good as he did in his two-year-old season, that statement will ring true all the way to Louisville. In his early races, he demonstrated tremendous turn of foot to run down the speed. In later races, the son of Pioneerof the Nile utilized that same explosive move to take over races at the head of the lane. Of course, those last two came against Grade 1 competition, and around two-turns. Everything seems to be right on schedule for the Casse barn on his return. You never know for sure after a layoff, and how horses will mature from two to three, but this one seems like an awfully good bet to be a really nice three-year-old as well. Clearly the One to Beat

5) Irish War Cry (6-1) – The son of Curlin from the barn of Graham Motion has several things going for him as he looks to transition from a minor stakes race at Laurel to running against a top field of Derby contenders. Coming out of a pair wins sprinting, there is every reason to believe that he can be forwardly placed early, and unlike the two likely favorites, he does not come in off a layoff. Improvement is expected off a tough race last time which should have done him plenty of good as far as experience. He is obviously stepping way up, but I believe he rates the best chance to knock off the champ. Should Be Sharp

1) Gunnevera (4-1) – Anyone who watched the Delta Downs Jackpot knows this one has a turn of foot, as well. The son of Dialed In did what can only be described as inhaling his competition in the rich race at Delta Downs, in his most recent start. While his one previous try against Classic Empire did not end well for him, there is enough showing in his wins to give him another chance against the champ. Gulfstream Park, combined with a field without too much speed, is probably not the ideal spot for him, so this race more than likely becomes one to set him up for the next. Having said that, he is working very well. Possesses Big Late Run

6) Fact Finding (6-1) – Beware Todd Pletcher at Gulfstream Park, or beware the unbeaten horse. Take your pick with this son of The Factor. Still you have to wonder if the level of competition he will face on Saturday will be his undoing. He must be respected off his three solid wins with improvement each time, but I wonder if he will appreciate two-turns enough to beat Classic Empire, and the rest in this 1 1/16-mile affair. Clearly one of the top four, but I like him least of the four. Gets Acid Test

4) Talk Logistics (15-1) – Of the three horses in here coming out of the recent Mucho Man Stakes, this son of High Cotton fared much the best, finishing well to be third. He also sports three good efforts in three lifetime races, as well as two solid performances over the track for trainer Eddie Plesa. Unfortunately, this test looks quite a bit tougher than what he has been facing, and probably a bit too much for him from a class perspective. Good Local Form

9) Fire For Effect (20-1) – Trainer Dale Romans brings us this son of Smart Strike for the West Point Thoroughbreds partnership. As with many young horses from the Romans barn, he showed marked improvement in his second lifetime start when breaking his maiden at Gulfstream Park on January 7. The track was wet and sealed that afternoon, and he made up nice ground to get up in the final furlong. The time and competition make me believe that this might be a little too much too soon, but he is certainly one that could improve quickly this winter. Determined Maiden Winner

7) Shamsaan (15-1) – A Shadwell Stable homebred, he really turned it around on a sloppy and sealed track in his first run at Gulfstream last time. It was also his first try on dirt, having previously run three times on turf or mud in New York. Never having run on a fast dirt track, it's hard to know what will happen on Saturday, but one thing is for sure, this competition will be a big step up for him. Romped in the Slop

8) Cavil (20-1) – Another with only a maiden in the win column, this Godolphin runner was made the favorite in the listed Mucho Macho Man Stakes last time, but could only manage a middle of the pack finish in the race won by Sonic Mule. He may improve, and he may be part of the early pace, but it's hard to like his chances overall. Last Not Encouraging

2) Perro Rojo (30-1) – Another who contested the recent Mucho Macho Man Stakes, and could only pass tiring horses on his way to a seventh-place finish. He was a big longshot that day, and this one is only that much tougher. Up Against It