Can Texas Red follow in the footsteps of Shared Belief?
It seems odd to compare a horse who has only won 2-of-6 lifetime, to the consistent excellence of a champion such as Shared Belief, but only days away from the return of Texas Red in Saturday’s Grade 3 Dwyer Stakes at Belmont Park, I do see plenty of similarities between the two horses at similar stages in their three-year-old seasons. The question then becomes -- can Texas Red become the next big thing?
The Keith Desormeaux-trained charge developed a foot abcess at a crucial time this spring. Much like Shared Belief last year, dreams of a Triple Crown pursuit were put aside, and a solid summer/fall campaign became the goal. Other than an unlucky trip in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, we know how well Shared Belief did in his first year back to the races starting with an impressive victory over the July 4 holiday weekend in the Los Alamitos Derby. Similar success for Texas Red is a distinct possibility.
Before the setback, I had Texas Red right up there with anyone on the Kentucky Derby trail. And why not. His victory in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was a powerful stretch-running masterpiece, coming from last to inhale the field on the Santa Anita far turn, before running off to a 6 ½-length coming out party.
Though he’s never been farther than 8 ½ furlongs before, I share the opinion of most who think Texas Red only has all the potential in the world to excel at classic distances. That coupled with his obvious talent, is why I considered him a major threat for the Kentucky Derby this winter, and why I now believe he is a legitimate horse to watch in huge races like the Travers and Breeders’ Cup Classic in the coming months.
I had the opportunity to talk with Erich Brehm, Jr., a member of the Texas Red ownership team, about their stable star’s current readiness, and some plans for the rest of the season.
“Our team is really excited,” said Brehm. “Texas Red looks and feels great. The somewhat long-term plan is obviously to run in the [Breeders’ Cup] Classic but [we] feel the eight furlong Dwyer is the perfect first race back. If all goes well, he will continue training at Belmont for a few weeks before shipping to Saratoga; Jim Dandy and then Travers [being the plan.]”
Despite his connection's confidence and my belief in his ability, Saturday’s Dwyer is no easy spot for the return of the BC Juvenile winner.
Despite Blofeld losing his only start of the year so far, I still see good things in the future for the handsome son of Quality Road. From the same Todd Pletcher barn, Tommy Macho is getting better with every start, including an impressive allowance score on Belmont Stakes Day. Perhaps the most threatening presence of all to the prospect of Texas Red becoming a popular winner of the Dwyer, is the lightly raced, Bill Mott charge, Speightster. The WinStar colt has been sensational in each of his two lifetime starts, one at Keeneland, and one at Belmont. He is sharp and truly could be any kind. A victory by Speightster in the Dwyer should come as no surprise.
The one thing squarely in the favor of Texas Red on Saturday is the likely prospect of sharp early fractions. As we were well reminded in the recent Met Mile, give a strong late runner fast fractions to run at in the one-mile, one-turn trip at Belmont Park, and explosive things can happen. No need to say that Texas Red needs to come back with an Honor Code type of performance, but the race seems to set up pretty well for him.
Much like the San Vicente, though, this is not a race that Texas Red has to win. As long as he can uncoil his powerful stride at some point, and finish up with good energy, the Dwyer is simply a means to an end. There is still plenty of time to the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and for now, the son of Afleet Alex needs to build a solid foundation in the coming months. That formula could not have worked out better for Texas Red last fall, and this year the stakes will only be raised.