Can American Pharoah be stopped like Seattle Slew was?

When American Pharoah goes to the post for the 48th running of the Haskell Invitational, our first Triple Crown winner in nearly four decades is sure to go off an overwhelming favorite to extend his glorious winning streak to eight. He’ll go off as such a prohibitive favorite, in fact, that it got me thinking about the possibility of an upset. As excellent as he’s been this year, a defeat in the Haskell sounds like an unlikely scenario, but history shows us it’s not as far-fetched as you may think. Let’s take a look at the other three Triple Crown winners of my lifetime, and how they fared in their first race back after running to immortality in the Belmont Stakes.

First, there was the immortal Secretariat. Coming off the greatest Belmont victory of them all, Big Red absolutely toyed with an extra small field in the Arlington Invitational of 1973. No one really wanted a piece of the great horse after what he did to Sham in successive races of the Triple Crown, and when Arlington lured him to Suburban Chicago, they only could find three others to test his ability to bounce back from the Belmont showstopper. The other three had some stakes form, but nothing near that of the horse that everyone came to see. So, just 21 days after the most important win of his career, Secretariat went off at 1-20 odds, before easily wiring the overmatched trio. In another ‘Secretariat like’ performance, the Triple Crown champion won by nine-lengths in 1:47 flat, as more than 40,000 fans watched in delight at the old Arlington Park.

While the Penny Chenery (Meadow Stable) owned superstar was a big success in his first race after the Triple Crown, it should be noted that he was not so lucky in his very next race. Facing older horses for the first time, a 1-10 Secretariat was shocked in a five-horse Whitney field at Saratoga. The Graveyard of Champions lived up to its name on that afternoon of August 3, 1973, as the unheralded Onion, trained by Allen Jerkens, kept Secretariat pinned on the rail, and edged away from him late for his biggest career victory.

Four years after Secretariat, came the rags to riches story of Seattle Slew. A modest $17,500 yearling purchase, the dark colored son of Bold Reasoning achieved greatness by becoming the first undefeated horse to sweep all three legs of the Triple Crown. A juvenile champion, Seattle Slew came to Louisville a perfect 6-for-6. After breaking a step slow out of the Churchill Downs starting gate on the first Saturday in May, very little would go wrong over the next 3 15/16 miles of racing for Slew. Facile victories in each leg of the Triple Crown proved that the colt with modest beginnings was worthy of being mentioned in the same breath as Secretariat.

Perhaps a little too giddy in the excitement of Slew’s accomplishments were his ownership team of Mickey and Karen Taylor and Dr. Jim Hill. Only three weeks after the Triple Crown was over, a listless Seattle Slew was entered in the Grade 1 Swaps Stakes against his trainer’s wishes and better judgement. Between some promotional duties, quick turnaround, and a trip cross-country, Seattle Slew was clearly not on his best on July 3, 1977. Running into a buzzsaw named J.O. Tobin didn’t help either. On a Hollywood Park main track very much to his liking, the former top English juvenile set on his way in blistering fractions, and the usually speedy Slew, bet down to 1-5, could not keep up. The Triple Crown winner was done by the far turn, and J.O. Tobin, a future sprint champion, waltzed home by eight, in a dazzling 1:58 3/5 for the ten furlongs. Seattle Slew was way back in fourth, no longer undefeated, and would not race again until the following spring.

Finally, there was Affirmed in 1978. In the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont, the fantastic chestnut had to deal with another great talent in Alydar. Each leg of the series was closer than the last, and the challenge presented to Affirmed by Alydar was greater. But as you know, the heart of Affirmed was huge, and each time he was courageously able to turn back his rival. Without added hyperbole, the Belmont Stakes battle the two put on was one of the greatest races in the history of the sport. It had to take a little out of both horses. Therefore, the same mistakes made with Seattle Slew the year before would not be repeated with Affirmed. Still, what awaited for Affirmed on his first race back was far more than nearly anyone bargained for.

Much like will be the case for American Pharoah, the Harbor View star was given time off after the Belmont. Nearly two full months passed before he made the starting gate for Saratoga’s Jim Dandy Stakes. With no Alydar, the new Triple Crown hero was sent off at odds of 1-20 in a five horse field. The only other horse in the field given a prayer was a talented speed horse named Sensitive Prince. A few months before, he entered the Kentucky Derby undefeated, but a sixth-place finish there, and then a defeat in his recent at Pimlico left him with seemingly little hope against the mighty Affirmed. Of course, his trainer, Allen Jerkens did not see it that way. Furlong after furlong, Sensitive Prince led Affirmed by a sizable advantage in the Jim Dandy. In receipt of nine pounds from the champ, he looked home free in mid-stretch, and even inside the sixteenth pole it appeared Affirmed was going to be beaten. Only a monstrous, last-ditch surge in the final fifty yards carried him by his dangerous adversary to the delight of the Saratoga crowd.

So now finally, another once in a generation horse has come along. American Pharoah has earned the right to be talked about in such a revered way as we did of the stars of the golden age of the 1970’s. Can he beaten in the Haskell? We know the answer to be yes. The struggles of the three fantastic horses, who most recently won the Triple Crown before him, bear that out, as well as the simple fact that as great as these champions are, they are still only flesh and blood. They are in fact mere mortals, who on any given day are susceptible to becoming victims of circumstance.

Having said all this -- do I really think American Pharoah will lose in 11 days? No. I don’t think it will even be close. All signs point to the son of Pioneerof the Nile bouncing back from his Triple Crown journey in spectacular fashion. His workouts post-Belmont look every bit as impressive as the excellent ones which preceded the Derby. Also, I simply do not see anyone with J.O. Tobin-like ability willing to try the Pharoah on the Jersey Shore, but then again, you never know, that is why they run the race.