California’s Resurgence in the Kentucky Derby

Don’t look now, but the left coast is on a bit of a run in recent Runs for the Roses. A mere five months from the 2016 Kentucky Derby, the Golden State will be looking for their fourth winner in five years on the first Saturday in May.

I’ll Have Another got the California resurgence rolling in 2012, with a pair of strong victories at Churchill Downs and Pimlico. Two years later, California Chrome also won the first two legs of the Triple Crown in impressive style. Of course, as we all know, American Pharoah went one step further in sweeping the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes, to become the first horse since Affirmed, another horse who came from California to win racing’s holy grail, back in 1978. California runners have not always dominated in Louisville, though.

When Silver Charm defeated Captain Bodgit and Free House, among others, in the 1997 Kentucky Derby, it marked the first time in eight years that a California based horse had won the Run for the Roses. Remember back in 1989, it had been California’s finest, Sunday Silence, pulling off the upset over the mighty Easy Goer in the first two legs of the Triple Crown.

Silver Charm, also a winner of the first two legs of the Triple Crown, kicked off a real run for the West Coast three-year-olds. In fact, they won the Kentucky Derby four years in a row. Real Quiet in 1998, Charismatic in 1999, and Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, all shipped in from California to achieve immortality under the famed twin spires of Churchill Downs. As seven of the above eight names attest; if a California wins the Kentucky Derby, they are going to carry that success over to Maryland two weeks later.

That was not the case, though, during the dry years between Fusaichi Pegasus and I’ll Have Another. In that 11 year span between 2000 and 2012, only one California based horse, Giacomo, a 50-1 shot in 2005, was able to cash in at Churchill Downs. The son of Holy Bull could only manage a 3rd and a 7th in the subsequent Preakness and Belmont. In fact, Giacomo would not win another race for more than 14 months after his Derby win. Things have clearly turned around for the state of California three-year-olds in recent years, and there certainly is hope for them in 2016.

As we push forward into the final month of the historic 2015 racing season, the California contingent may not have the depth of the rest of the country, but it does possess some major talent. Chief among their Kentucky Derby hopes are the 1-2 runners from the recent Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

In fact, Nyquist and Swipe have finished in the same order and 1st and 2nd in their last four races, which also includes the Grade 2 Best Pal Stakes, the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity, and the Grade 1 FrontRunner Stakes. The former is undefeated in five starts, and will be an easy winner of the Eclipse Award voting for Champion Juvenile. While it remains to be seen whether or not the son of Uncle Mo can carry over his dominance as the crop matures, and the distances get longer, there can be no doubt that he was the best two-year-old male of 2015.

Swipe, meanwhile, is also a stakes winner, having accounted for the Summer Juvenile Championship at Los Alamitos, before his four straight second place finishes at the hands of Nyquist. As a son of the long-winded Birdstone, there is reason to believe that Swipe, only a half-length back at the wire of the Breeders’ Cup, could be right at home when this crop reaches the classic distances of the spring.

Besides the top two, California has a deep cast of interesting runners including; dazzling maiden winner, Drefong (Gio Ponti), the recent Kentucky Jockey Club runner-up, Mor Spirit (Eskendereya), and the top two from the Bob Hope Stakes, Toews On Ice (Archarcharch) and Mac Daddy Mac (Put It Back). All of which look like potential Derby contenders, or perhaps California’s best hope to join the list below has not even run yet.