California Chrome tops the 2016 San Diego Handicap

Last week may have been opening weekend at Del Mar, but this Saturday is when the fireworks really begin at the gorgeous oceanside oval. There are a few out there, but there can be no doubt that California Chrome has been as big a star as anyone in American racing this year. Winning the Dubai World Cup two years after his Triple Crown run, making him North America’s all-time richest runner, can do that for a horse. We’ve all been waiting his return to U.S. racing, and that day is finally almost upon us. Saturday’s Grade 2 San Diego Handicap will host the 2014 Horse of the Year, and his legions of loyal fans, for his first race in nearly four months. While many will be looking for the triumphant return of Chrome, this spot may not be as easy as 1-2-3, due to the presence of another talented runner also making his long awaited return. Let’s take a look at the field of seven for the $200,000 race …

6) California Chrome (3-5) – I happen to believe that out of all his excellent performances over the years, none were finer than his most recent race -- and for this horse, that’s saying a lot. The big victory at Meydan was vintage California Chrome. Tremendous tactical speed to gain the perfect position, push-button acceleration when called upon by Victor Espinoza, and a burning desire to get to the wire first; it was all there for the world’s richest race. While the return from Dubai, and the layoff, always raise a bit of uncertainty, the way he has been working, first at Los Alamitos, and then at Del Mar, should give plenty of confidence that the grand looking, chestnut son of Lucky Pulpit will be ready for the challenge set to come his way. And in his first race at Del Mar since winning the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby on the grass in late 2014, I do expect this to be a serious challenge because of the horse just below him. He will have to give five pounds, and play an early tactical game with the challenger, but Chrome, at his best, wins this.  The Champ Will Be Tough

2) Dortmund (5-2) – There is a reason why Dortmund has won 80% of his career races. He is on a short list of the best horses in the country. That alone makes him a serious challenger to the top rated horse in the United States on Saturday. I know what you are saying -- “But, Brian, he has not raced in eight months. Surely he cannot handle Chrome after such an extend layoff.” Well, that may turn out to be true, but I believe that would have more to do with the excellence of Chrome, rather than the lack of preparation for this big son of Big Brown. There is no trainer I would prefer to have to get a horse ready to fire than Bob Baffert. I have no doubt that Dortmund will show up a fit horse for the San Diego. Factor that in with the relatively friendly distance of 1 1/16 miles, as opposed to longer, and I believe we will have a real horserace on our hands.  Ready to Challenge

7) Win the Space (10-1) – Back and forth between dirt and turf as a three-year-old, this son of Pulpit seemed to be largely spinning his wheels in 2015. More mature at four, he appears to have found a home on the main track. His two races this year, a brave allowance win in May, and then a solid second behind Melatonin in the Grade 1 Gold Cup at Santa Anita, point him out as a real contender in the handicap division. Having said that, he looks to have found that rare instance when going from Grade 1 to a Grade 2 is actually a tougher spot. While I think he is a horse to watch in the future, I see him only running for third if the top two run near their ability. Ran a Big Gold Cup

1) Hard Aces (10 -1) – The Gold Cup winner of last year has not won a race since that one back in June of 2015. The good news is that he continues to keep good company, and often picks up a check. His chance in here would be if the top two really turn the screws on each other early on. He then becomes a logical horse to rally past tiring horses late. The odds of that happening here for victory? Slim to none, in my opinion. More likely, this only serves as a prep for him for the richer Pacific Classic at a ten-furlong distance that gives him slightly more hope.  Likely only a prep

5) Follow Me Crev (15-1) – With four straight wins from October through February, he was one of California’s hot horses for trainer, Vladimir Cerin. The good times ended, though, when he ran a non-threatening fifth when moved up in class for the Grade 2 Californian. He may be better than that performance suggests, but convincing me that can beat California Chrome and Dortmund is not going to happen.  Third Money Candidate

3) Soi Phet (15-1) – Eight-year-old, multiple stakes winning son of Tizbud comes into this race off solid form, including a front-running stakes score in his latest. The obvious problem is that he now tries much tougher in here, and worse yet, they also like to be on or near the lead. Nice to see the old-timer still going strong, but I'm afraid on Saturday, he will only make his presence felt during the early stages of the race. Adds to the Pace

4) Crittenden (20-1) – This is what happens when you have such excellence at the top. Seemingly decent horses become little more than an afterthought – and so it is for Crittenden. The son of Distorted Humor has run some good races, including a stakes win at Del Mar in the turfy Let It Ride Stakes, but he just does not fit with the best of the field. I feel confident saying that his first-ever win on dirt will not happen on Saturday. Swimming with Sharks