By The Moon offers betting value in the Bed O’ Roses
Installed at 6-1 on the morning line, Jay Em Ess Stable’s By the Moon will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Jose Ortiz from the inside post when a field of six line up for Saturday’s 60th running of the Grade 3 Bed O’ Roses Handicap. If she goes off anywhere near those odds at post time, I believe the four-year-old dark bay daughter of Indian Charlie offers excellent betting value.
First off, Belmont Park is a track which seems to fit By the Moon well. She has run there twice in her career, and they were both big efforts. At two, she became a Grade 1 winner by easily taking the Frizette, and then last year, she ran a bang-up race to be second by a neck to Curalina in the Grade 1 Acorn. While true, that each of those were at a mile, and the Bed O’ Roses is only seven furlongs, I believe the extended one-turn nature of both makes them a good comparison. Take note that in each of those strong performances at Belmont, she outran her odds big time, having gone off at 24-1 in the Frizette and 30-1 in the Acorn.
Next, I like the fact that she comes in second time off a layoff. There was nothing wrong with her first race back, 4th, beaten 5 ¾-lengths by Paulassilverlining in the Grade 3 Distaff. She needed that one, and is likely to improve off the effort. Also note, that in her two best races of her career, the two previous races at Belmont Park, she was coming in off somewhat disappointing efforts – hence the reason for the nice odds.
Finally, I think she sits a nice trip under Jose Ortiz, and behind plenty of early pace, but clearly ahead of the race favorite. Trained by Michelle Nevin, she should be ready to pounce as the field turns for home.
Of course, there is a reason that By the Moon is listed as the fourth choice on Saturday. Chief among her rivals in the Bed O’ Roses will be the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint winner, Wavell Avenue. Off the stylish win in the World Championships, she deserves to be favored, but giving at least six pounds to everyone in the field, and winless in two starts so far this year, her 6-5 morning line seems to be in the underlay territory.
Another who deserves serious respect in the Belmont Park feature on Saturday is the talented New York-bred filly, Bar of Gold. Last year’s Test runner-up comes in off an easy win against overmatched statebreds, and should be the second choice in here. Interestingly, she beat my top pick the last two times they met, but both were competitive, and if you look back at the Acorn, their only meeting at Belmont, you will see that By the Moon was well ahead of Bar of Gold.
The rest of the field consists of West Coast Chick, who should be on the lead early and comes in off a solid second in the Vagrancy; Mayla, who is the winner of three straight for trainer Bret Calhoun, and also offers nice value at her 10-1 morning line odds, and Pangburn, who will be cutting back in distance to one she has never attempted before.
All in all, it is by no means an easy six-horse field, but one which I think is a great spot for By the Moon -- especially at odds of 6-1 or so.