Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile 2016: The Top 10
The last two editions of the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, that were run at Santa Anita (2013/2014), were both won in convincing fashion by Goldencents. With that excellent son of Into Mischief long since retired, as well as last year’s impressive winner, Liam’s Map, who is also enjoying the duties of his second career, we are in need of a new hero for the $1-million-dollar race. With that search in mind, here is my current Top 10 for the Las Vegas Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, six weeks before the big race …
1) Runhappy – Can he return as good, or even better, then he was last year? Can he handle the two-turns of the Dirt Mile? We will get our first look at the 2015 Sprint Champion next week in the one-turn mile of the Grade 2 Ack Ack Stakes at Churchill Downs, and I suspect what we see there will go a long way in answering those two questions. Count me in as a believer. His connections have believed for a long time that he can go two-turns successfully, and one-mile at Santa Anita should be a great place to test the waters. I believe the winner of 7-of-8 lifetime is one of the most talented horses in the world.
2) Dortmund – He gave California Chrome a very good race in the San Diego, but going 3/16th’s farther in the Pacific Classic turned out to be much less of a race against the top ranked horse in the country. Those facts, coupled with a likely third straight defeat at the hands of Chrome in next week’s Grade 1 Awesome Again, should be reason enough to run the classy son of Big Brown in this spot, rather than the Classic. In here, the 2015 Santa Anita Derby hero has a real shot to win, especially if the top one falters any little bit.
3) American Freedom – The second of three from the Bob Baffert barn, the son of Pulpit did not beat too much in the Sir Barton, and Iowa Derby, but stepped up nicely when put into the fire against the big boys. His runner-up finishes in both the Haskell and Travers proved his class. Stepping back in distance should only give him a better shot to break through for his first Grade 1 victory. He sits third on the list, but he looks like a major threat at Santa Anita.
4) Gun Runner – One of the major players in Saturday’s $1.25 Pennsylvania Derby, he has already won three stakes races this year. Still, in his biggest tests, the Kentucky Derby, Haskell, and Travers, he has come up just a little short. The same thing may happen on Saturday, but regardless, it is difficult not to respect the son of Candy Ride, who fires every time. His tactical style, plus his obvious class, should fit well in this spot, and at a distance which could be his best.
5) Upstart – Has not had much luck against Frosted of late, but there was nothing wrong with his third-place finish in the Grade 1 Whitney. A mile would seem like a good distance for him, and he did run well in his only previous start at Santa Anita, when third in the 2014 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Let’s see if he can get a confidence building win in the Grade 2 Kelso.
6) Economic Model – The beaten favorite when second in the Dwyer to Fish Trappe Road, this Chad Brown trainee bounced back nicely with a solid, rallying second in the Grade 1 King’s Bishop. It would seem he still has room for improvement, and the stretch out to a two-turn mile should be well within his capability.
7) Tamarkuz – Has been 0-for-America since winning the rich Godolphin Mile in 2015, but showed serious signs of life with a strong rallying second behind A.P. Indian in the Grade 1 Forego last time. He’ll look to build upon that momentum when he will likely line up as one of the favorites in the October 8 Kelso Handicap.
8) Cupid – Gets a real acid test tomorrow in the Pennsylvania Derby against the likes of Nyquist, Exaggerator, and Gun Runner. Clearly a horse with talent, I have my doubts about his chances against the best of his generation, and until he proves me wrong, I am not going to be a big believer in his chances against older horses for the first time.
9) Tom’s Ready – Second to Gun Runner in the Louisiana Derby, and a smashing winner of the Grade 2 Woody Stephens, Tom did not have the best of trips last time in the Grade 1 King’s Bishop. Look for a nice bounce back for the three-year-old at either Belmont or Churchill, as he preps for the Dirt Mile.
10) Gun Pit – The veteran globetrotter has run in big races over the world, including a disappointing 12th place finish in this year’s Dubai World Cup. Despite that finish, he’s proven strong at the mile distance, and he seems to handle dirt, like all surfaces. His international class deserves respect.