Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile 2016: Decisions to Be Made

If all the possibles for the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile ended up in the Santa Anita starting gate on Friday, November 4, the little brother of the Classic would be one of the highlights of this year’s two-day extravaganza.

Frosted should be the most significant decision of the bunch. He is the one horse that everyone wants to know where he will wind up. As one of the best dirt horses in the world, I have believed all along that the smashing winner of the Met Mile and the Whitney will end up in the Classic. California Chrome or not, it seems that is where his trainer wants to go, and I would be surprised if the ultimate sportsman, Sheikh Mohammed overrules him in favor of the lesser race. Still, it is hard to ignore his last performance at a flat mile, when he ran historically well on Belmont Stakes Day. In the field, Frosted would be the horse to beat in the Dirt Mile.

If Frosted does indeed go Classic, Tamurkuz is the likely entrant for the barn in the Dirt Mile. While he lacks the talent of Frosted, he is a former winner of the rich Godolphin Mile, and after a pair of improved runner-up performances in the Forego and the Kelso, he is not without a chance in the Breeders’ Cup.

It looks like another large Dirt Mile decision has been made, and Dortmund is in. Who can blame his connections for not wanting to try California Chrome for a fourth consecutive time, and with Baffert also training Classic contenders in Arrogate and Hoppertunity, the Dirt Mile would seem to be a good choice for the hulking son of Big Brown. Judging from his consistent form over the past three seasons, a two-turn mile, as opposed to the ten furlongs, would be preferred for Dortmund. He is perfect with two easy wins at the distance, and he is the one horse in here who would actually be getting class relief in this race. If Frosted is in the Classic, this one moves smoothly into the role of favorite.

Finishing a little farther behind the top rated horse in each of his last three races is Win The Space, who also could well be in search of an easier spot on November 4.

Runhappy also seems to be a near certainty for the Dirt Mile. Although, with his recent comeback loss at Churchill Downs, fans have jumped off his bandwagon faster than it takes Usain Bolt to collect a gold medal. I will not be one of those bandwagon jumpers. The Champion Sprinter of 2015 should get a ton out of his decent return performance, and move forward in his second start back. I know he is winless past seven furlongs, but I expect him to be just fine at a mile at Santa Anita. Dismiss the speedy son of Super Saver at your own peril.

Meanwhile, the top two out of the Ack Ack, Tom’s Ready and Iron Fist both lay in the weeds as talented and underestimated colts, who could spring a surprise on BC Friday. The former is a very capable youngster, who if he gets the right pace setup is very dangerous, while the latter is just rounding back into best form after nagging physical issues. As of now, it looks like both will be in the race.

Of the other top three-year-olds, it looks like Gun Runner is the most likely top contender. The Louisiana Derby winner has run nothing but strong performances, including his last, when a wide run second in the $1.25 million Pennsylvania Derby. With his tactical style, experience in big races, and ability to put himself in good position, a two-turn mile likely would be right up the son of Candy Ride’s alley. He should be considered a major threat no matter who runs.

Meanwhile, the horse who beat him at Parx, Connect, would also seem to be a great candidate for the Dirt Mile, but it looks like trainer Chad Brown has decided to be a little more patient with the lightly raced son of Curlin, and wait instead for the Grade 1 Cigar Mile. Another Dirt Mile candidate for Brown is the sophomore colt, Economic Model, but he too can only be classified a possibility, with no races since his good second in the King’s Bishop.

Speaking of three-year-olds, let’s not forget about Texas Chrome. Certainly the competition will be ratcheted up a few notches at Santa Anita, but the winner of the Super and Oklahoma Derbies is as game as they come, and looks BC bound.

A pair of big wins recently by Vyjack and Anchor Down would make the pair very interesting entrants in the Dirt Mile, but alas, neither are certainties. Anchor Down, who finished second to Frosted in the Met Mile, looked great in winning the Kelso Handicap, but like Connect, he looks much more likely to wind up in the Cigar Mile, rather than making a trip west. Vyjack, on the other hand, is already at Santa Anita, and it looks to be only a question as to which Breeders’ Cup race he will be in. His course record performance on the turf in the City of Hope Mile has trainer Phil D’Amato considering the Mile, but the Dirt Mile still seems a bit more likely.

What Else? The globetrotting Gun Pit still looks to be on course for this race, while Bradester remains a possibility, although the front running winner of the Grade 1 Stephen Foster has not looked great of late. The horse that beat him last time, Noble Bird, will not be heading to the Breeders’ Cup, via Norman Casse, and will instead look to the Clark Handicap at Churchill Downs. Stay tuned for more Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile doings right here on Zipse at the Track!