Breeders' Cup Classic watch: Ranking the contenders

This is the 13th installment of a weekly feature exclusive to Horse Racing Nation tracking the Breeders’ Cup Classic horses all the way through the $7 million race Nov. 1 at Del Mar.

With as many as a dozen Grade 1 winners currently pointing for the race, this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic is poised to become the strongest edition in many years. Topped by Sovereignty, the winner of the Kentucky Derby, Belmont and Grade 1 Travers, as well as the older champions Fierceness and Sierra Leone, the 1 1/4-mile race promises to be the showcase of the 14-race world championships at Del Mar. 

Now just 3 1/2 weeks from the big day, let’s take a look at the prospective field and what I believe each horse’s chances are to win America’s richest race.

Tier 1, the most likely winners

Sovereignty. You can try to look for a fault in this son of Into Mischief’s sophomore season, but I can’t find one. He has developed into a world-class runner for trainer Bill Mott and has looked only better as the months have passed. Sure, this will be his biggest test yet, but it's one that he likely will be ready for considering his trajectory over the last six months. Having said all that, he still needs to prove it against older horses, and he will find very good ones in this Breeders’ Cup Classic. 

Fierceness. Last year, this Todd Pletcher-trained champion faced a suicidal early pace in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and held very well to finish second. There does not seem to be as much speed in this year’s field. Although Fierceness does throw in some disappointments, his three previous trips to California have been nothing short of excellent. The son of City of Light showed it’s all systems go with a strong win in the Pacific Classic. With good spacing between races, I expect a big performance in the Classic.

Forever Young. In a race this strong, nearly every horse in the field is a bit of a wild card, but this Japanese runner is probably the biggest one of all. After a huge win in the $20 million Saudi Cup (G1), he disappointed in the Dubai World Cup (G1). Perhaps he was a bit tired. Given a rest, he looked very good in his return. I believe his first two tries in America were better than his third-place finishes would suggest. The big, strong 4-year-old should be ready for another big effort in his return run at Del Mar. 

Tier 2, the dangerous second wave

Sierra Leone. It was tough to leave the defending champion off the top line, but that is how strong I feel this field is. He had all kinds of trouble in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) last time and still was coming on strong for second. But the consistent late runner has won only one race in four tries this year for trainer Chad Brown and remains pace-dependent. Will he get a pace scenario similar to last year? Probably not.

Baeza. This late foal for trainer John Shirreffs is the youngest horse in the race. That could be a disadvantage, but at the same time it still offers plenty of room for improvement. He has not been able to get by Sovereignty or Journalism yet, but his breakthrough in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) should add confidence. Back home in Southern California, the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes third could be ready to run his best race yet.

Mindframe. One of the biggest wildcards in the race, we learned nothing about his ability to beat top horses going 10 furlongs in the Jockey Club Gold Cup debacle. Before that, he was a very nice winner over Sierra Leone in the Stephen Foster (G1) with a good trip at nine furlongs. Very talented, he still could prove to be the best older horse in the nation, but right now he is only no. 2 for me from the Pletcher barn.

Journalism. Michael McCarthy and Eclipse Thoroughbreds have not been shy about entering this hearty son Curlin in all the big races this year. He has responded by running first or second in all seven outings in 2025. Most years, I think he would be one of the horses to beat, but against this field he is down the list just a bit. His losses to Sovereignty and Fierceness at the distance are going to be tough to reverse.

Tier 3, a career best likely still falls short

Antiquarian. After being a bit unlucky in both the Blame Stakes (G3) and the Suburban (G2), this handsome son of Preservationist really turned things around in winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), as he was the only horse in the race who found no trouble. Still, the Pletcher charge ran very well to win against a solid field and seems like a horse to consider against anyone. But I have my doubts in a field with this depth of quality. 

Nevada Beach. The fourth Grade 1 winner in the field among the 3-year-olds, this Bob Baffert trainee is by far the least proven. But he appears to have a pretty big upside after winning a Grade 1 race against older in only his fourth lifetime start. He needed to get by only the speedy Full Serrano in that one, however. This race will be a whole new level of difficulty for the late-developing Omaha Beach colt. 

Highland Falls. The winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) in 2024, he was one of many horses bothered when he went for the repeat in his most recent race. He never really threatened after that and will need to do better at Del Mar. The beautifully bred son of Curlin can do better, but this is a very tough spot. He might be a horse to consider for underneath in the exotics at big odds.

Locked. It’s still a question whether the talented son of Gun Runner enters this or the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile instead. The winner of 6-of-11 lifetime is a bit on-again-off-again, but at his best he can be quite good. His Santa Anita Handicap (G1) romp shows his ability to get 10 furlongs in California. He is not one of Pletcher’s top hopes, but the Woodward winner is still a danger.

Tier 4, the long shots

Luxor Cafe. This well-bred 3-year-old came to America on a nice four-race winning streak, but he never fired in the Kentucky Derby and finished in mid-pack. Freshened since then, he will get his shot to prove he belongs here when he runs in the Japan Dirt Classic on Wednesday. 

Disarm. The veteran son of Gun Runner finished fourth in the 2023 Kentucky Derby and then won the Matt Winn Stakes (G3) in his next start. That remains his only stakes victory in his career. Second in the Lukas Classic (G2) last out, he has become a horse who can hit the board against good horses, but this field will be too much.

Hit Show. The winner of the $12 million Dubai World Cup this spring has never quite lived up to that type of result in the U.S. A nice horse for trainer Brad Cox, the 5-year-old son of Candy Ride has won plenty of stakes races in his career, but he falls short of the best in here. 

No Bien Ni Mal. A developing runner in Brazil, this son of Hofburg has been imported and won his first two starts in the U.S. He looked good in winning an allowance at Saratoga and the Greenwood Cup (G3) at Parx, but the jump up in class to this would almost certainly be too great. 

Track all the top contenders for the Breeders’ Cup Classic each week right here.

New to the list: Luxor Cafe, Hit Show

Dropped from the list: Goal Oriented