Breeders' Cup Classic watch: How each horse can win

This is the 16th installment of a weekly feature exclusive to Horse Racing Nation, tracking the Breeders’ Cup Classic horses all the way through the $7 million race on Nov. 1 at Del Mar. This report was written before word came that morning-line favorite Sovereignty would be scratched because of a fever.

In what could be the strongest overall field for the $7 million, Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic in many years, the 3-year-old star Sovereignty was made a clear 6-5 favorite after drawing the no. 6 post position. 

Saturday’s big race at Del Mar features nine Grade 1 winners, including the top two from last year’s edition. The champion Fierceness, who is the 4-1 second choice and drew the rail, was second last year, and his champion rival Sierra Leone, who surprisingly was made the 8-1 fourth choice on the morning line, will begin from the 7 post as the defending race champion. 

In this highly anticipated edition of America’s richest race, here is a rundown of the entire field and how I believe each contender can win. 

1. Fierceness, 4-1, John Velazquez

It’s ironic that the 2023 champion 2-year-old drew the rail after his trainer said that is the one place he didn’t want to be. The good news is that the post isn’t necessarily a bad one as long as the Grade 1 Pacific Classic winner does not repeat his antics from that race. I don’t think he would recover from another sharp duck in, but otherwise he can move right into second early behind the rabbit. With a good trip, the talented 4-year-old should have any chance as the field spins out of the turn. If he accelerates at the head of the stretch, he will be a handful to run down in the rather short stretch at Del Mar. He is one of the top contenders. 

2. Baeza, 15-1, Hector Berrios

After as many big races as this well-bred son of McKinzie and Puca has run, it’s hard to call him an up-and-comer, but I do believe we have not seen the best of Baeza. He tipped off his talent with excellent efforts in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and Kentucky Derby and more recently has shown continued development in the Jim Dandy (G2) and Pennsylvania Derby (G1). The youngest horse in the field always has looked like a horse who could be even better as he matures. With a good stalking position early, look for him to be closer to the pace than he has been in some races and ready to strike at the top of the lane. He is my top long shot in this one. 

3) Nevada Beach, 20-1, Mike Smith

Easily the least experienced horse in the field, this son of Omaha Beach will need to run the race of his life to win this edition of the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Able to run down the classy Full Serrano last time in the Goodwood Stakes (G1), I have the suspicion that he already might have done that. Still, he earned the spot here with that victory, and if he can take another big jump forward and prove to be a special talent he would have a shot to win this coming from mid-pack. I do not like his chances against this salty bunch, however. 

4) Contrary Thinking, 50-1, Florent Geroux

The lone non-Grade 1 winner in the field will be used as a rabbit for his late-running stablemate Sierra Leone. His job will be to go right to the lead and set strong early fractions in the 10-horse field. After that, look for him to quickly fall back and finish last. He would need a miracle to win this on Saturday. 

5) Forever Young, 6-1, Ryusei Sakai

The only international-based runner in the field, this son of Real Steel comes from Japan as a more mature version of the colt we saw run well in the the Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic last year. Freshened since a busy winter campaign, he looks big, strong and healthy since returning. His prep victory in Japan was good. He likes the distance and is familiar with the American style of racing. To win on Saturday, he will need a better trip than last year. He does not have the turn of foot of a few others in the field, so he will need to be within striking distance at the head of the lane. If he’s there, he has a big chance to prove himself the world’s best dirt horse. He is a top contender. 

6) Sovereignty, 6-5, Junior Alvarado

After reeling off impressive victories in the Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes, Jim Dandy and Travers (G1), this strapping son of Into Mischief has earned the right to go favored in this loaded field. He continues to thrive for his Hall of Fame conditioner Bill Mott and has looked good since arriving at Del Mar. He has become that rare horse who can put himself right into the race early and then close with an irresistible rush. The ability to stay within striking distance has been a big part of his development. It will be up to rider Junior Alvarado to keep him out of trouble and give him clear sailing when they turn for home. This will be his toughest test yet, but he appears ready for the challenge. Sovereignty is the one to beat. 

7) Sierra Leone, 8-1, Flavien Prat

There is a reason Tiznow remains the only horse to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic more than once. It is not easy. Last year’s winner certainly merits strong consideration after two good efforts at Saratoga set him up in similar fashion as last year. The difference, I believe, will be the strength of his competition. Can he run by Sovereignty and the rest in the lane? His past performances suggest he is more likely to rally for a spot underneath instead. Rather than being the fourth choice when the gates open, I expect he will be lower than his morning-line odds. Given the distance and a solid pace, he is a threat, but he is more likely to finish third than win this. 

8) Mindframe, 10-1, Irad Ortiz Jr.

Perhaps the biggest wildcard in the field, we still really don’t know how good this Maryland-bred son of Constitution is. At times, he has been a joy to watch as he effortlessly moves into contention, but he also has seemed to be a horse unwilling to live up to his massive potential in other instances. An aggressive ride from the outside to be in position right away would seem to be his best chance for success Saturday. That trip could be similar to his stablemate Fierceness. If he can spurt away as they turn for home, he might be talented enough to pull it off. But without a real prep run for this, I tend to be less than a believer against this stacked field. 

9) Journalism, 10-1, Jose Ortiz 

A highly publicized rider change might give new hope to this battle-tested sophomore. But I still wonder how the horse that has looked Sovereignty in the eye twice with no success is going to turn the tables and defeat the strongest field he will ever see. A strong early pace and a stout rally on the outside is how he would get it done, but frankly, I like others better with the same strategy. I commend this horse and connections for dancing every dance and doing it well, but I do not like his chances here. 

10) Antiquarian, 15-1, Luis Saez

An improving colt throughout his career, he comes to the Classic off the biggest win in his career in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1). Much like Nevada Beach, he would need to make another big move forward to have any hope to win back-to-back Grade 1 races. Although a very nice performance, his victory in the at Saratoga undoubtedly was aided by the trouble the rest of the field dealt with. Drawn to the outside, he will need to come from mid-pack to go after the lead on the far turn and then hold off the late runners. It is not impossible, but he will not be on my tickets in this huge race.