Breeders' Cup Classic watch: Baeza steps forward

This is the 11th installment of a weekly feature exclusive to Horse Racing Nation tracking the Breeders’ Cup Classic horses through the $7 million race on Nov. 1 at Del Mar.

In an already crowded gang of big names assembling for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Baeza stepped forward with a decisive win on Saturday at Parx in the Grade 1, $1 million Pennsylvania Derby.

Coming off a strong second to Sovereignty in Saratoga’s Jim Dandy (G2) eight weeks earlier, the well-bred son of McKinzie and Puca was made a 7-5 favorite in a solid field of 10 and rewarded his backers with a drama-free run that carried him and rider Hector Berrios to a 2 1/4-length victory.

His first stakes victory was completed in racehorse time of 1:48.02 and should send him back to California as one to watch at Del Mar. A $1.2 million yearling purchase for C R K Stable, Baeza was late to change leads in the stretch of the Pennsylvania Derby, leading me to believe there is still plenty of room for improvement for the late May 13 foal.

His veteran, Breeders’ Cup Classic-winning trainer John Shirreffs always has shown a high level of confidence in Baeza and it is becoming more apparent why. Never having finished out of the money on the dirt and already well tested for class, the handsome colt continues to be an interesting candidate in the nation’s biggest races. 

As for the remainder of the promising colts to run in the Pennsylvania Derby, it was Magnitude who performed the best. Unable to get his customary spot on the lead and finding himself in traffic for much of the race, he ran well to be a clear second. Still, avoiding a loaded edition of the Classic probably would be prudent, as it would be for everyone else in the field except Baeza. 

The second horse who potentially could come out of Saturday’s Parx card and run in the Breeders’ Cup Classic is the Greenwood Cup (G3) winner No Bien Ni Mal. The Brazil-bred clearly was best in the 1 1/2-mile race and is now 2-for-2 in the U.S. after winning his stateside debut in a Saratoga allowance race. 

Trainer Paulo Lobo has had success with Brazilian imports in the past and is high on the 4-year-old son of Hofburg, who crossed the wire first in five of his last seven starts in his native land. If he can draw into the field of 14 for the Classic, Lobo might take the shot. For what it’s worth, Next, the winner of the 2023 and 2024 editions of the Greenwood Cup, finished last of 14 in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. 

The core group of Sovereignty, Sierra Leone, Fierceness, Mindframe, Forever Young, Journalism, Baeza, Antiquarian and Highland Falls look pretty set, but a few more runners could thrust their names into the Breeders’ Cup Classic with a good performance on Saturday. 

At Aqueduct, the multiple Grade 1 winner Locked will get a chance to prove he belongs in the Classic when he headlines a field of seven in the Woodward Stakes (G2). A bit disappointing in his last two performances, the Todd Pletcher trainee will look to return to the form that carried him to a romping win in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) three starts back. Post Time and Phileas Fogg lead his challengers Saturday. 

In California, Full Serrano will continue on the comeback trail when he tops the Goodwood (G1) at Santa Anita. Trained by John Sadler, the import from Argentina looked great winning against allowance company in his first race in 10 months. A good performance here likely would send him to defense of the Dirt Mile. But if he's impressive enough, he could earn a shot in the Classic. First Mission looks like his top foe in the Goodwood. 

Finally, a competitive group of seven are entered in Saturday’s $500,000 Lukas Classic (G2) at Churchill Downs. Leading the way are 2024 Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan and 2025 Dubai World Cup (G1) winner Hit Show. Among their top challengers are Banishing, Disarm and Rattle N Roll. Several in the field are eligible to use a good performance here to springboard to either the Classic or the Dirt Mile, depending on how well they run in the nine-furlong test. 

Track all the top contenders for the Breeders’ Cup Classic each week right here.

New to the list, No Bien Ni Mal, Rattle N Roll

Dropped from the list, Chunk of Gold, Goal Oriented, Gosger, Nysos