Breeders' Cup Classic watch: 3-year-olds or older horses?

This is the ninth installment of a weekly feature exclusive to Horse Racing Nation tracking the Breeders’ Cup Classic horses all the way through the $7 million race on Nov. 1 at Del Mar.

Rolling to the Breeders’ Cup Classic on a four-race winning streak, including a demolition job most recently in the Grade 1 Travers Stakes, Sovereignty is poised to be a strong favorite when the starting gate opens at Del Mar in 7 1/2 weeks. As Journalism recently found out, however, the task of beating older horses on the big stage is far from routine. 

Sent off as an overwhelming Pacific Classic (G1) favorite at 2-5, the three-time Grade 1 winner Journalism ran his usual good race but could make no headway into the lead of his older rival. The champion Fierceness was much too strong down the Del Mar stretch. It was a testament to the advantage of tactical speed and physical maturity.

Although the nation’s second-best sophomore came up short in his first attempt against older horses, more will be expected of Sovereignty. He defeated Journalism in both their meetings, he is perfect in three starts at the 1 1/4-mile trip, and the son of Into Mischief looked visually stunning in his last victory.

That last factor might be the least important of the three, but it may be the biggest reason his odds dip below 2-1 in the nation’s richest race. With a strong group of older horses pointing for the $7 million race, the task of the Bill Mott-trained star should not be taken lightly.

History sides with the older horses in the race, but sophomores have held their own. In the 41 prior editions of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, older runners hold a 27-14 advantage over their younger counterparts.

Most recently, Sierra Leone, Fierceness and Forever Young ended a three-year drought for sophomores by running 1-2-3 in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar. All three are expected back this year as potent older runners and among the strongest competition to Sovereignty.

Some of the most highly regarded 3-year-olds in recent memory have had mixed success at the World Championships.

In 2015, the Triple Crown champion American Pharoah had no problem dispatching his older competition, but the group behind him that afternoon at Keeneland did not have much bite.

One year later, it was Arrogate who used a romping win in the Travers to springboard into the Breeders’ Cup Classic and a meeting with the older champion California Chrome. The 5-year-old was a clear favorite, but his younger rival proved too much in the closing strides, and Arrogate was a half-length winner.

In 2006, Bernardini, who is the broodmare sire of Sovereignty, came into the end-of-year Classic as a red-hot favorite off consecutive impressive wins in the Preakness, Jim Dandy, Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup. But the 11-10 choice had no answer for the strong late drive of the older Invasor that afternoon at Churchill Downs. 

Other highly anticipated 3-year-olds to go down to defeat in the Breeders’ Cup Classic include Easy Goer at 1-2 in 1989 and Fusaichi Pegasus at 6-5 in 2000. In both of those years, sophomores dominated the proceedings and came out on top anyway as Sunday Silence and Tiznow bested the favorites.

Part of a standout crop of sophomores back in 2007, Curlin emerged in the Monmouth slop with a big win. The son of Smart Strike earned his first of back-to-back horse-of-the-year awards when leading 3-year-olds to five of the top six spots in that edition of the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

In 1992, it was A.P. Indy who went out a winner in his final career start. The 3-year-old champion delivered with the biggest performance of his career when winning the Classic at Gulfstream Park over the older Pleasant Tap. 

One last noteworthy clash of 3-year-olds against older took place in 1987, when two Kentucky Derby winners hit the wire together. In the narrowest of margins, it was the favored 4-year-old Ferdinand who came out on top against his strong younger rival Alysheba in a Classic to remember. 

What does all this history teach us? Top 3-year-olds can prove themselves with a win in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and in Sovereignty we certainly have a good one. When the older horses are strong, however, the scales might tip slightly toward them. It looks like this year’s edition should be classic indeed. 

The next important race on the Classic trail will be Sept. 20 at Parx Racing. Although there will be no Sovereignty or Journalism in the field, the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) will boast a deep and talented group of 3-year-olds.

The 1 1/8-mile test should add a sophomore or two to the big one at Del Mar. Although still in search of his first stakes victory, the John Shirreffs-trained Baeza likely will be the betting favorite a week from Saturday. 

The handsome son of McKinzie and Puca has finished second or third in four consecutive graded stakes since breaking his maiden, with only Sovereignty and Journalism finishing ahead of him in the Santa Anita Derby, Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes and Jim Dandy. Baeza made Sovereignty work a bit in the Jim Dandy, and he continues to look good in morning workouts in California.

Among his top challengers at Parx, the graded-stakes winner Gosger and the lightly raced Goal Oriented both are expected to make the trip. Most recently, the pair battled down the entire stretch in the Haskell Stakes (G1) only to be passed late by Journalism. Gosger was also narrowly denied victory by that one in the Preakness. 

Adding to the strong depth of the $1 million Pennsylvania Derby, the field also is expected to include the West Virginia Derby winner Chunk of Gold, Iowa Derby winner Magnitude, Indiana Derby winner Tip Top Thomas, Ohio Derby winner Mo Plex and the Ellis Park Derby winner Big Truzz. 

Track all the top contenders for the Breeders’ Cup Classic each week right here.

New to the list: None

Dropped from the list: None