Breeders' Cup Classic watch: Sovereignty leads 10 hopefuls

This is the fifth installment of a weekly feature exclusive to Horse Racing Nation tracking the Breeders’ Cup Classic horses all the way through the $7 million race on Nov. 1 at Del Mar.

With a lull in the action of key preps, this is the perfect time to unveil my top 10 list for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. There are still 81 days to go until the first Saturday of November, so it is likely every horse on this list will have at least one more start before the big one at Del Mar.

Listed in alphabetical order, these are the 10 horses I believe most likely to come out on top in what could be the best edition of America's richest race in many years.

Baeza. Although he has won only once in seven career starts, I still see this well-bred son of McKinzie as a threat in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Plenty needs to happen for him in the coming weeks, but I believe his performance in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy behind Sovereignty was strong enough for him to crack the list of top contenders.

It was his fourth consecutive graded-stakes race where he finished just behind the current leader of the division, or Journalism, or both. Trained by John Shirreffs, the late-developing 3-year-old likely will run in the Pacific Classic (G1) or Pennsylvania Derby (G1) next. A breakthrough victory in either would give him needed confidence before the big test at Del Mar.

Fierceness. A disappointing effort in the Whitney (G1) followed a runner-up effort in the Met Mile (G1) for the 2-year-old champion of 2023. Favored in both, the son of City of Light now is on the outside looking in among top contenders for the Classic. The good news is that he has made a career of bouncing back from poor efforts during his career for trainer Todd Pletcher.

In his seven best performances, he displayed a brilliance that clearly makes him a dangerous runner in any race. He also has traveled twice to Southern California for the Breeders’ Cup and ran big, winning the Juvenile two years ago at Santa Anita and turning in a strong second in the Classic last year. He cannot be dismissed just yet.

Forever Young. Following a similar pattern to last season, Japan’s top dirt horse is getting a long freshening before a single prep race in his native land ahead of the Breeders’ Cup Classic. When last seen, he was upset in the Dubai World Cup (G1), finishing a close third. He is expected to make his first start back in the Nippon TV Hai (G2) at Funabashi Racecourse on Oct. 1.

At his best, the son of Real Steel can beat anyone on the globe, as evidenced by a huge win over Romantic Warrior in this year’s rich Saudi Cup (G1). He never has run a poor race in his career, but in his two previous trips to America he could do no better than third. Having said that, he just missed in the 2024 Kentucky Derby and was running well late when third in last season’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. He might be currently out of mind, but he should not be forgotten.

Highland Falls. One of the least accomplished horses on the list made a statement last out when a very game second behind Sierra Leone in the Whitney in  only his second start of the year for trainer Brad Cox. A good-looking winner of an allowance race before that, there is good reason to believe that this could be the best season yet for the 5-year-old.

Adding to the hope for the well-bred son of Curlin was a strong win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) last year. He will look for a repeat in that race in a few weeks but must deal with the likes of Sierra Leone and Mindframe this time around. Unfortunately, he did not do much running in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic and is 0-for-2 in trips to California.

Journalism. No horse has run in more big races in 2025 than this handsome Curlin colt. In six graded stakes this year, he won four and finished second to Sovereignty in the other two. Both losses came on tracks with some moisture, something he is unlikely to see at Del Mar. Although he was clearly second best to his rival in the Belmont, keep in mind that the winner was the fresher horse after skipping the Preakness.

The Michael McCarthy-trainee ran in all three legs of the Triple Crown and bounced back nicely last month to win the Haskell (G1) at Monmouth Park. After all of his racing, he still looks to be flourishing in his morning workouts. With the Pacific Classic (G1) being his most likely next start, he would have an opportunity to prove himself against good older horses such as Nysos and White Abarrio. There is a lot to like here, but can he ever get over the Sovereignty speed bump?

Mindframe. The second from Todd Pletcher on the list, this talented Constitution colt has swapped positions with Fierceness and is the current darling of the stable. He has done it with three straight graded-stakes victories to begin his 4-year-old campaign. In the last one, he held Sierra Leone at bay in the Stephen Foster (G1) at Churchill Downs. That result alone speaks volumes to his ability, but can he beat the very best at 1 1/4 miles?

Held out of the Whitney in favor of stablemate Fierceness, we will come closer to learning the answer at the end of the month when he is expected to take on Sierra Leone and other good horses in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He was unable to finish the job in his two major tests last year, but now more experienced and mature, he might be up to the task. After defeating Nysos and Sierra Leone in his last two starts, he is a serious threat to keep winning.

Nysos. Having never run over a mile before, it was good to see this talented son of Nyquist respond well to the 1 1/16-mile trip in winning the recent San Diego Handicap (G2) at Del Mar. But he didn’t beat much and now will be asked to stretch out quite a bit farther while facing stronger competition in the coming weeks. He should get a real test in his next outing when he runs in the 1 1/4-mile Pacific Classic on Aug. 30 at Del Mar.

A good winner in his only two starts over the track and running again there in a few weeks gives him home-field advantage over most in the field. He also has good tactical speed and a strong turn of foot. Bob Baffert’s top hope for the Classic never has run a poor race, but he still has much to prove if he is to become the trainer’s fifth winner of the $7 million race.

Sierra Leone. Last season’s Breeders’ Cup Classic winner and champion 3-year-old male earned his first victory of 2025 with a strong last-to-first move in the $1 million Whitney (G1) 10 days ago. The winning performance by the Chad Brown trainee over the top field of older horses assembled so far this year established him as a top contender to join Tiznow as only the second horse ever to win the Classic twice.

Much scrutinized after two losses to begin the season, it is now fair to believe that the son of Gun Runner was only building toward the most important assignments of the season. The Jockey Club Gold Cup at the end of the month should be his next start. Last year’s big Classic victory was aided by a strong early pace, but will he get a similar setup this time around? That remains to be seen, but with the Breeders’ Cup Classic back at Del Mar this year, he must be considered a big challenger to win it again.

Sovereignty. The current early favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Classic is on schedule to make his next start in the Travers Stakes (G1) on Aug. 23. The field for that one is still fluid, but it’s safe to say the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes hero will be a strong choice while in search of his fourth straight win. Well proven at both the distance and the track, the powerful son of Into Mischief will be hard to stop in what should be his final race before the big one at Del Mar.

Trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, nothing has gone wrong for the big horse this season as he also has tallied wins in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and Jim Dandy (G2) and finished a rallying second in the Florida Derby (G1) in his five races. If he wins the Travers as expected, he will be the one to beat on Nov. 1. But it is worth noting that he will be racing on the West Coast and facing older horses for the first time in the Classic.

Thorpedo Anna. With three local workouts under her belt, the reigning horse of the year is scheduled to make her next start at Saratoga in the Personal Ensign (G1) on Travers Day. Last year at this time, she proved herself a match for the boys in the Travers when just missing against Fierceness while beating next-out Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Sierra Leone and multiple Grade 1 winner Dornoch. That effort came after easy wins in the Acorn (G1) and Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) at the Spa.

Since the Travers, she has won five of six against the girls, including the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) at Del Mar. The six-time Grade 1 winner was slammed hard going into the first turn in her only defeat during that stretch and rebounded with an easy win in the Fleur de Lis (G2) last time. Having demonstrated that she can handle both the distance and the track, she should not be underestimated if her connections decide to run her against the males in the Classic rather than another run in the Distaff.

The next Breeders’ Cup Classic Challenge series race will be the Juddmonte International Stakes (G1) on Wednesday, Aug. 20. Run on the grass at York Racecourse, it is unclear whether any serious candidates will emerge, but last year’s winner City of Troy did come over only to finish eighth in the Classic. Tepin’s son Delacroix is one of the early favorites for this year’s edition.

Track all the top contenders for the Breeders’ Cup Classic each week right here.

New to the list: None

Dropped from the list: None