Breeders' Cup Classic watch: Baeza, Gosger get their chance

This is the 10th installment of a weekly feature exclusive to Horse Racing Nation tracking the Breeders’ Cup Classic horses all the way through the $7 million race on Nov. 1 at Del Mar. 

Overshadowed by Sovereignty and Journalism in their six most important starts combined, Baeza and Gosger will get their chance to win a big one of their own Saturday at Parx in the Grade 1, $ 1 million Pennsylvania Derby.

Baeza has been installed as the 2-1 morning-line favorite in the field of 10. The half-brother to classic winners Mage and Doornoch comes into the 1 1/8-mile test off a strong second behind the division-leading Sovereignty in Saratoga’s Jim Dandy (G2) eight weeks ago. 

The John Shirreffs-trained colt ran well in three straight Grade 1 races after breaking his maiden nicely at Santa Anita. He finished second to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), then third in both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes behind Sovereignty and Journalism before his solid run in the Jim Dandy. 

Although Baeza is still looking for his second career victory, the handsome son of McKinzie and Puca is a deserving favorite on Saturday. Since the Jim Dandy, in which he was beaten by only a length, he has continued to work well in California. Most recently he went a strong six furlongs at Santa Anita in 1:11.60 before shipping to Parx. 

Although Gosger has not faced the big boys as often as Baeza, he showed his class with a pair of strong efforts in his last two starts. The gray son of Nyquist was a convincing winner of the Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland in April. The win, in only his third career start, was enough for him to earn a spot in the Preakness. 

A long shot in the middle jewel of the Triple Crown, the Brendan Walsh-trainer runner stalked the lead before taking over early in the stretch. He appeared to be a winner but was run down late by Journalism. That classy rival did much the same to Gosger in the Haskell Stakes (G1) with a strong late rush nine weeks ago. 

Never worse than second in his career, Gosger has had plenty of time between races and has looked good in the morning at his Churchill Downs base. Like Baeza, he can move from being a fringe player for the Breeders’ Cup Classic to a serious threat by showing that he is still on the improve with a strong effort in the Pennsylvania Derby. 

Leading the opposition, and the second choice on the morning line, is Goal Oriented. The Bob Baffert charge finished behind Gosger in the Preakness and the Haskell, but with only four lifetime starts, he is also eligible to move forward. Last time at Monmouth Park, he gave his rival all he wanted in a stretch battle before being passed late by Journalism and Gosger to finish third. Irad Ortiz Jr. will replace Flavien Prat in the saddle for this one.

Several others in the Pennsylvania Derby can be considered factors. Iowa Derby winner Magnitude will look to bounce back after being dismantled by Sovereignty in the 10-furlong Travers Stakes (G1). The same could be said about Ohio Derby (G3) winner Mo Plex, who suffered the wrath of Sovereignty in the Jim Dandy last time.

The promising trio of Big Truzz, David of Athens and So Sandy all make for interesting long shots on Saturday. 

A good-looking Justify colt, Big Truzz was impressive winning the Ellis Park Derby last month. David of Athens has made only three lifetime starts but defeated Patch Adams in his debut last year and recently romped in an Ellis Park allowance race. 

Finally, the improving So Sandy used a strong allowance victory at Churchill Downs to springboard to a near miss in the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga most recently.

After the Pennsylvania Derby, graded-stakes races for older males will be run on Saturday, Sept. 27, in California, Kentucky and New York. Each could play a part in determining the field for the Breeders’ Cup Classic and the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1). Leading contenders for the three include Full Serrano, Locked and Hit Show.

Full Serrano looked great recently winning against allowance company in his first race since winning the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile last fall. Imported from Argentina, he has proven to be for real in America for trainer John Sadler. A win in the Goodwood (G1) likely would send him to defense of the Dirt Mile but could earn him a shot in the Classic if impressive enough. 

Nysos, who was thought to be a leading candidate for the Goodwood, has had no recent workouts and was not nominated to the race at Santa Anita. He seems unlikely to make the Classic at this point.

Locked will try to break a two-race losing streak when he returns in the Woodward Stakes (G2). The Gun Runner colt won the 10-furlong Santa Anita Handicap (G1) impressively and seems to like the track at Aqueduct, which will host the Woodward. A strong bounce-back race here should propel him to a try in the Classic. 

Dubai World Cup (G1) winner Hit Show could earn a spot in the Classic, but he likely will face a tough field in the Lukas Classic (G2). Mystik Dan and Banishing could be among his top competitors at Churchill Downs. Both of those millionaires would be considered as more serious contenders in the Dirt Mile than they would in the Classic, depending on the outcome next Saturday. 

Track all the top contenders for the Breeders’ Cup Classic each week here.

New to the list, First Mission, Full Serrano

Dropped from the list, Phileas Fogg