Breeders’ Cup Classic 2020: Contenders & Pretenders
This year's edition of the Breeders’ Cup Classic sets up to be the most important race run in 2020. With the Horse of the Year, Older Dirt Male and 3-Year-Old Male championships all on the line, a deep and evenly matched field of 10 are set to battle it out as the headliner of the World Championships at Keeneland on Saturday.
A big part of the story in the $6 million Classic will be older versus younger, as we see the top two sophomore males in the nation take on veteran competition for the first time. Authentic, the Kentucky Derby winner, and Tiz the Law, the Belmont winner, both have been models of consistency, but can they get it done it against the best older males in the land?
Without further ado, here is how I see the 10-furlong Breeders' Cup Classic, breaking down the field by chances to win and including my projected odds.
The top contenders
Tom's d'Etat (6/1) — He finished last year as well as any horse, with big victories at both Keeneland and Churchill Downs, and picked things right up this year with sharp scores over Improbable at Oaklawn and By My Standards at Churchill Downs. The 7-year-old son of Smart Strike was at the top of the division until he traveled to Saratoga and could do no better than third behind Improbable and By My Standards. Was it a sign of vulnerability? I don't think so. A stumble out of the gate and an extremely slow early pace left the Whitney a virtually unwinnable race for the favorite. Improbable and By My Standards are very good, and they weren't coming back, considering the circumstances. Freshened since, I expect trainer Al Stall to have the veteran runner ready to run his best, much like he did with Blame a decade ago. In a very tough heat, he is a tepid top pick.
Improbable (5/2) — Clearly trainer Bob Baffert has this son of City Zip at a lifetime best. An undefeated hotshot as a juvenile, keep in mind that he was the beaten favorite in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness last year. He wasn't good enough in 2019, but with impressive victories over horses such as Maximum Security, By My Standards, Tom’s d’Etat and Higher Power in three consecutive Grade 1 scores, he has become the favorite once again. In his latest win, he showed a new dimension by rallying off a fast pace to blow by the field and win going away. If that powerful burst of speed of his can be as potent at 10 furlongs, he will be a handful on Saturday. He is the most likely one to beat my top pick.
The top competition
Tiz the Law (7/2) — The New York-bred son of Constitution was at the top of the racing world after rousing victories in the Belmont and the Travers, but his superiority came crashing down when he could not get by Authentic at the head of the lane as the heavy favorite in the Kentucky Derby. The good news is that Churchill Downs is probably a racing surface that he just does not care for, as his only two losses have come there. Still, he was good enough to finish a clear second. He skipped the Preakness to be ready for this, and he has a running style that seems to always put him in great position as the field turns for home. All things being equal, I generally prefer older horses to 3-year-olds, even in the fall, but this is one talented sophomore. He has a big shot to beat his elders.
Maximum Security (4/1) — If you see the recent Awesome Again as the real Maximum Security, and the beginning of the end for him as America's best dirt horse, then you have no problem discounting his chances in the Classic. On the other hand, if you believe he was far from cranked up for that prep and that we will see a whole different version of him at Keeneland, then you have to consider him a major contender. I lean more to the latter. It's possible that everything he has been through in the last few years, including a successful trip to Saudi Arabia, might finally be catching up with him, but I have big respect for his toughness down the lane and all that he has accomplished. You know that he will be involved early, and from there it will take a really good effort to put him away.
Contenders for only exotics
Authentic (5/1) — The hero of the Kentucky Derby had a very tough race last month when he battled with the filly Swiss Skydiver in vain in the Preakness. It was another strong performance, but it also showed that he can be passed by a top horse. It's never wise to discount a horse that is on the lead and is full of class, but the Breeders' Cup Classic is only that much tougher than the Preakness. I have little doubt that he will be the one they all have to catch, but with six other strong horses with speed or tactical speed in here to challenge him, I do not see him being able to turn in the rare Kentucky Derby-Breeders' Cup Classic double.
By My Standards (12/1) — Paired with rider Gabriel Saez, By My Standards has been all but unbeatable of late. He will once again have his favorite rider in the saddle for the Classic. Unfortunately, in each of his four Grade 2 victories with Saez aboard, the son of Goldencents has beaten a class of horse a little below what he will have to deal with on Saturday. He did not have Saez for either the Stephen Foster or the Whitney, where he finished second behind Tom's d'Etat and Improbable, respectively. Can a rider really matter that much? I think so, as this pair clearly clicks. I love the value he should have on the oddsboard, and I expect him to be involved early and right there at the head of the stretch. I just don't like his chances to actually win at the 10 furlong distance.
Board hitters at best
Tacitus (20/1) — Although it's true that Tacitus has kept great company the last two seasons, his last two races don't match up well with what he will face at Keeneland. Having said that, in his losses in the Woodward and the Jockey Club Gold Cup, he was forced to be on or near the lead, and I don't believe that is his best running style. In the Classic, he deserves to be a longshot, but he could get a much better pace scenario to rally into. He won't win, but experienced at 10 furlongs, he could surprise with a rally that fills out the exotics at attractive odds.
Global Campaign (15/1) — This son of Curlin turned in an excellent performance last time when beating Tacitus in the Grade 1 Woodward. Relatively lightly raced, he is also a horse who likes to win, and he might still have room for improvement. Having said that, he will need to make another big step up, in my estimation, to find much success in the Classic. While the last one was an ideal setup, he will find a whole different level of early pressure, not to mention class of horse, this time around. In other years, I would have found him an interesting up and comer, but I fear this is not a spot that looks good for this talented runner.
The true pretenders
Higher Power (30/1) — Third in the race last year, and a Grade 1 winner at the 10 furlong distance, you might be tempted to throw this John Sadler into the exotics once again, but I can't recommend him this time around. He moved up last year when he moved to Southern California, so I worry that he won't be at his best coming back East. Worse than that, his races this year have been decidedly a cut below what he was able to turn in last year. Throw in the depth of competition in this year's Classic, and things do not look promising for him.
Title Ready (50/1) — Very deserving of the title as the longest shot on the board, this Dallas Stewart charge has never won a stakes race. He does have good performances at Keeneland, including his last when third in the Fayette, but against this group, he will be overmatched. A fast contested pace likely would allow him to pass a few tired horses, but not enough to hit the board.