Zipse: Separating Breeders' Cup Classic contenders, pretenders
By no measure will the 2019 running of the Breeders’ Cup Classic be remembered as one of strongest editions of the $6 million race. Instead, the wide-open event, primarily filled out by the chaotic older male and 3-year-old dirt divisions, will provide an intriguing betting opportunity.
Who will step up to lay claim to a year-end Eclipse Award in the 1 1/4-mile affair at Santa Anita Park? It's time to analyze the projected field and separate the real contenders from the pretenders. The list below is in order of overall preference, including my projected odds for the big one on Saturday, Nov. 2.
The Contenders
Vino Rosso, 9-2 [Curlin -- Todd Pletcher -- 14: 5-1-3 -- $1,503,215]: He's been knocking at the door of America's biggest races for the past two seasons, and I believe the 4-year-old closer than ever to breaking through. A horse who excels at the Classic distance of 10 furlongs, he earned his biggest win to date over this same trip in May's Gold Cup at Santa Anita (G1). Most recently, his number was taken down after gamely finishing first in the Jockey Club Cold Cup (G1) at Belmont Park. With his newfound ability to be involved early in his races, and his win over the track, I expect he will have every chance to win the signature race of the Breeders' Cup as the field turns for home.
Code of Honor, 7-2 [Noble Mission -- Shug McGaughey -- 9: 5-2-1 -- $2,298,320]: No horse in the field comes into the Classic with better recent form than this one. Wins in the Dwyer (G3), Travers (G1), and Jockey Club Gold Cup have him on the verge of an Eclipse Award for 3-year-old males. His consistent late rally has proven to be effective at the distance, and who knows? With a clean run up the rail, we may be calling him a Kentucky Derby winner as well. As the adjudged winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup, he proved he could rally into a race without much pace. He may see the same scenario next Saturday, and on a new racetrack, but all in all he's a good bet to come running.
Yoshida, 10-1 [Heart’s Cry -- Bill Mott -- 17: 5-4-1 -- $2,445,770]: Last year, this one was a sneaky-good fourth in the Classic after a wide trip. Much like 2018, when he went off at nearly 15-1, I believe he will be a forgotten horse at the betting windows once again. After a difficult early season both on the turf and in a trip to Dubai, it looks like he is finally rounding into form. Despite a winless season to date, I believe his rallying performances at two nine-furlong races at Saratoga in the Whitney (G1) and the Woodward (G1) are indication that he is ready to fire his best shot in the Classic. After the same freshening before last year's Breeders' Cup, and Mike Smith in the saddle for the first time, look for him to be full of run late at Santa Anita.
Elate, 8-1 [Medaglia d’Oro -- Bill Mott -- 18: 7-7-2 -- $2,328,725]: Perfect in three starts at the 10-furlong distance, the lone female in the field comes in off a disappointing second-place finish to her own sex in Keeneland's Spinster (G1). The loss, while not her best, was also not a bad one considering she was narrowly beaten and coming off such a tough race against Midnight Bisou in the previous race. Look for her to bounce back and grind away as she always does. The odds will be right, so the question becomes: Is the top-notch mare good enough to beat the boys? With this being a bit of an off year among the males, the answer very well could be yes.
McKinzie, 3-1 [Street Sense -- Bob Baffert -- 13: 7-5-0 -- $2,298,560]: As one of the most talented older dirt males in the nation, the likely favorite certainly is a threat to win this. Impressive wins in the Malibu (G1), Alysheba (G2), and the Whitney (G1) over the past 10 months have attracted bettors in large numbers, but they have been surrounded by four other losses at low odds. Most recently, he was upset by Mongolian Groom in the Awesome Again (G1). There is also the question of his ability to run his best at 10 furlongs, a distance in which he is currently 0-for-2. A widely publicized jockey change from Mike Smith to Joel Rosario adds to the intrigue. At his best, he can prove best, but at the odds, he is the least attractive of the contenders.
The Pretenders
Higher Power, 12-1 [Medaglia d’Oro -- John Sadler -- 14: 5-1-5 -- $836,648]: Other than one performance, it would be easy to dismiss this 4-year-old colt. That one performance, though, a front-running romp in the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar, was a doozy. Before that, he was no match for Vino Rosso in this spring's Gold Cup at Santa Anita, and was well beaten last time in the Awesome Again (G1), also at Santa Anita. He does have the excuse of a bad start last time, but still, he did not show me enough in the stretch run, nor in either of his tries over the track, to expect an upset in the Classic.
Owendale, 15-1 [Into Mischief -- Brad Cox -- 12: 5-1-2 -- $958,725]: Here's a 3-year-old that I've really liked this year, and the handsome son of Into Mischief has come through with a trifecta of Grade 3 victories in the Lexington, Ohio Derby, and most recently the Oklahoma Derby. He travels well, and I also don't believe he had the best of the running when beaten in the Preakness Stakes and the Travers (G1). Having said that, his late run looks to be just a cut below the likes of Code of Honor and Yoshida. He's consistent, but a minor award looks like his ceiling at this point of his career.
Mongolian Groom, 10-1 [Hightail -- Enebish Ganbat -- 16: 3-2-3 -- $579,141]: The longshot gelding made a name for himself by easily repelling McKinzie and the rest last time in the Awesome Again. A big win over the track always gives cause for pause, but can he really do it again? He had numerous chances before that and has never broken through. Also, the Awesome Again result was likely due to a good horse getting brave on the lead while the others were not running their best. I expect him to come back to Earth this time around.
Seeking the Soul, 20-1 [Perfect Soul -- Dallas Stewart -- 29: 7-6-7 -- $3,354,153]: On his best, he is a solid late runner who can compete with the big boys. The problem is, most of his best has come at the friendly confines of Churchill Downs. The Stephen Foster (G2) winner has certainly not looked the part since coming to California in either the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar or the Awesome Again at Santa Anita. I could see him passing tired horses next Saturday, but not enough to truly threaten.
War of Will, 15-1 [War Front -- Mark Casse -- 13: 4-1-2 -- $1,615,569]: The winner of the middle jewel of the Triple Crown has raced in eight consecutive graded stakes this season since January, and unfortunately, has not looked sharp in any of them since winning the Preakness in May. His third in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) was a bit of an improvement over the Belmont and the Jim Dandy performances, but still does not put him in the mix in what amounts to his biggest test to date.
Math Wizard, 25-1 [Algorithms -- Saffie Joseph -- 13: 3-2-3 -- $860,623]: It was a nice story when this former claimer came rolling down the lane to connect in the million-dollar Pennsylvania Derby at odds of 31-1. Much like Mongolian Groom, though, he had plenty of chances before that and was not good enough. Things came together for him at Parx, but I simply cannot see a similar scenario happening against this field in the Breeders' Cup Classic.