Entering the Breeders' Cup, who's hot – and who's not?

Photo: Eclipse Sportswire

With the major preps over, it's on to Breeders' Cup 2018. With less than four weeks to go until the Friday/Saturday extravaganza at Churchill Downs, we now know who is coming up to the championships on a high note, and who is not. Accelerate has been hot all year, but which horses have seen their stock rise in recent weeks, and which have seen their chances for Breeders' Cup glory fall?

Who's Hot?

Enable
- You win two straight editions of the Arc, and you are immediately on the Hot List, not to mention securing a place in the record books. We don't know for sure if the 4-year-old daughter of Nathaniel will make the trip over to Kentucky for the Breeders' Cup Turf, but if she does, she becomes strictly the one to beat. After an 11-month layoff, which included recovery from an injury, the classy European filly remarkably came back to smoke the high-class Crystal Ocean over Kempton's synthetic surface. Somehow that was all the prepping she needed to defend her title in the world's best turf race, holding off a spirited rally by Sea of Class. Enable is back, and the racing world is a better place.

Mind Your Biscuits - While we do know that Mind Your Biscuits is Breeders' Cup-bound, we do not yet know which race the New York-bred star will contest. Whether it is the Classic, Dirt Mile, or even the Sprint, he will be one to reckon with. A top class one-turn specialist all along, the son of Posse has proven he belongs at any distance with a pair of strong performances, running second in the Whitney before rolling over the Churchill Downs main track in the Lukas Classic.

McKinzie - On the shelf for more than six months, the sophomore son of Street Sense has suddenly become a stylish pick for the Breeders' Cup Classic after a decisive return score in the Pennsylvania Derby. With many of his crop peers falling away, he may well be the best chance for a 3-year-old Classic winner. It will also be further opportunity for his trainer, Bob Baffert, who has won the Classic in three of the last four years, to work his magic.

Roy H - After a slightly disappointing run in Dubai, last year's Sprint champ looked like he had lost a step since returning to the United States. Not so fast: In Saturday's Santa Anita Sprint Championship, we saw the old Roy H again. Churchill Downs and a loaded field will be a tough place to defend, but there can be little doubt that he is one of the main contenders.

Promises Fulfilled - So too is this streaking 3-year-old from the barn of Dale Romans. He dazzled against fellow sophomores at Saratoga, but what would he do back in Kentucky, and against older pros? We got that answer with a gritty, winning performance in the Phoenix Stakes at Keeneland. He has all the tools to beat his elders again at Churchill Downs.

Wow Cat - The older distaff division took a hit in recent months with the retirement of Unique Bella, the layoff of Elate, and the dull performance of Abel Tasman. Enter this Chilean star. She wasn't quite up to the task at the Spa, but in Belmont Park's Beldame we found out why she was such a superstar in South America. All of a sudden, she is a major threat in the Breeders' Cup Distaff.

Fourstar Crook - Anyone who continues to doubt this New York-bred filly has not been watching in 2018. All she does is run big, and with Sunday's decisive score in the Flower Bowl, she got her Grade 1. She also proved that she can rally into any pace, and handle the distance. Once thought a cut below in the loaded barn of Chad Brown, she now comes to the Filly & Mare Turf as one to beat.

Game Winner - It remains to be seen whether the 2018 Champion 2-year-old Male has emerged, but we do know who should be the favorite in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. While no horse in the East has strung together stakes victories, this son of Candy Ride has been perfect in California for, you guessed it, Baffert. As witnessed in last week's American Pharoah, he has the style, and the talent, to come to Kentucky and put a championship capper on his season.

Serengeti Empress - After a fourth-place finish in the Schuylerville, this daughter of Alternation has taken the state of Kentucky by storm with a pair of runaway stakes scores at Ellis Park and Churchill Downs. A repeat of her Pocahontas performance of two weeks ago would make her awfully tough to deny in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.

Oscar Performance - His fortune seemed on the way down in a hurry after being pulled up in the Arlington Million. But, found to be sound, he bounced right back with a smart score north of the border in the Woodbine Mile. With it looking like the strongest Euros will be pointing to other races, I believe he has a big shot to parlay his winning speed into a second career victory in the Breeders' Cup, this time in the Mile.

Who's Not?

Diversify
- On top of the world after dominating victories in the Suburban and the Whitney, this New York-bred speedster came crashing down to Earth in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Done in by early pressure, his task would seem to be only that much tougher in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Eskimo Kisses - She looked the part of a real contender in the Breeders' Cup Distaff with a rousing run up the rail to romp in the Alabama, but that came at 10 furlongs. Cut back to 1 1/8 miles for the Spinster, she never got untracked. Off that performance, it's tough to see her totally turning it around in a few weeks at Churchill Downs.

Ransom the Moon - Clearly an absolute tiger at Del Mar, this sprint veteran seems to lose a bit of punch elsewhere. While his win in the Bing Crosby made him a rallying threat for the Breeders' Cup Sprint, we now have to wonder if he can really get it done against the best anywhere outside the friendly confines of his favorite track.

Triple Crown Runners - Justify, Good Magic, Audible, Bravazo, Tenfold, Gronkowski, and Hofburg ... they all finished in the money in the Triple Crown, but where are they now? Retired, on the shelf, or looking like anything but true contenders for the Breeders' Cup Classic, of course, is the answer.

American Turf Males - With the exception of Oscar Performance, who may still yet end up on this list, our American turf males look to be a bunch of less than stellar quality. They take turns beating each other, and with the Europeans coming, it looks like a big ask to expect anything other than a loss for the home team in the Breeders' Cup Turf.

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