Belmont Stakes watch: A Kentucky Derby rematch awaits

This is the 24th installment of a weekly feature on Horse Racing Nation that tracks Triple Crown horses all the way through the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga. 

The third and final leg of the Triple Crown, the Belmont Stakes, will be contested for the 158th time on Saturday, June 6, and for the third consecutive year, it will be hosted by Saratoga and run at a distance of 1 1/4 miles. 

This year’s renewal will not feature a meeting between the winners of the first two legs, as Napoleon Solo will sit this one out after Saturday’s Preakness Stakes victory. Instead, it will be the top two from a thrilling finish in the Kentucky Derby, as Golden Tempo and Renegade will headline the $2 million affair. 

Renegade figures to be a solid favorite in this year’s Belmont despite losing out in the final strides at Churchill Downs. The son of top sire Into Mischief was a dominant winner of his first two starts of the season for trainer Todd Pletcher. 

In both the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs in February and the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn in March, Renegade rallied from near the back of the pack to swoop past the field and win going away. 

Chosen over other top contenders by rider Irad Ortiz Jr. in the Kentucky Derby, he was sent to post as the 5-1 second choice despite the less than advantageous rail post position. Crunched hard soon out of the gate, he recovered to make a big run only to fall a neck short to the fast-finishing upset winner Golden Tempo.

If Golden Tempo is to match Sovereignty’s feat last year of winning the Kentucky Derby, skipping the Preakness and winning the Belmont, he is going to have to prove that he can beat Grade 1-caliber horses without the benefit of a pace collapse. 

The well-bred son of Curlin was overlooked in the Kentucky Derby at odds of 23-1, but that proved to be a mistake as he kicked it in from last early to rally by the entire field down the middle of the Churchill Downs track under rider Jose Ortiz. 

The victory gave his trainer Cherie DeVaux the first win for a female trainer in the Kentucky Derby. It also gave Golden Tempo his third win from five career starts, with two third-place finishes. After a rallying victory in his career debut, he has run in nothing but graded stakes and will be far from a long shot in the Belmont. 

Another horse who will get plenty of support in the Belmont is the Bill Mott-trained Chief Wallabee. Well liked since an impressive debut when he defeated The Puma, the son of Constitution has looked on the verge of a breakthrough ever since. 

It will be put up or shut up time for the good-looking colt. Chief Wallabee has been close in each of the Fountain of Youth (G2), Florida Derby (G1) and Kentucky Derby but is still in search of his first stakes victory. 

In the Kentucky Derby, he was well backed at 7-1 but had a rough run of it down the stretch, bumped several times before ducking to the rail and finishing well to be fourth. With a little more tactical speed than Renegade and Golden Tempo, Chief Wallabee could get first run at the leaders this time around. 

Likely to be the top three choices for the Belmont, Golden Tempo, Renegade and Chief Wallabee all were swiftly removed from contention for a trip to Maryland and a shot at the Preakness. Their connections preferred to wait for the final leg of the Triple Crown, affording them a five-week gap between races. 

After the top three, the remainder of the Belmont Stakes field remains relatively fluid 18 days out. Florida Derby winner and Kentucky Derby seventh Commandment deserves another chance and would be a horse to consider from the barn of Brad Cox. 

Trainer Chad Brown, who is very familiar with winning graded stakes races at Saratoga, could have as many as three with Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Emerging Market, who lost a shoe when 10th in the Kentucky Derby, as well as Peter Pan (G3) winner Growth Equity, and Blue Grass (G1) runner-up Ottinho. 

As for Saturday’s Preakness, it looks like the speedy Chip Honcho, who finished third, and the late-running maiden Ocelli, who got up for fourth on a speed favoring track, are the most likely to go from Laurel to the Belmont Stakes. 

Considering his past performances in three starts this year, look for Renegade to be the one to beat at Saratoga. Keep in mind, however, the first two legs of the Triple Crown this year have produced win payouts of $48.24 and $17.80. Anything can happen in the final leg at Saratoga.