Belmont Stakes Upset Trend
For the second straight year there will be no opportunity for a Triple Crown winner this year at Belmont Park. Instead, Belmont Stakes 2017 will likely feature a large field, headed by the Juvenile Champion and Preakness runner-up, Classic Empire. Before you run to the windows, though, consider that betting the favorite in the final leg of the Triple Crown is not what it once was.
Once known as a good bet for the favorites, the Test of the Champion has increasingly become a race known for upsets. Still, of the 147 editions of the Belmont Stakes, favorites have won in 62 of them, or just over 42% of the time. While that's a very high hit rate for the betting favorites overall, recent years have been anything but kind to race favorites.
In the last eleven editions of the Belmont, only the Triple Crown winner, American Pharoah, was able to carry the day for favorites. Furthermore, of those ten losing favorites since 2006, seven of them finished out of the money.
2006 - Bob and John (9-2) - finished 8th to Jazil
2007 - Curlin (1-1) - finished 2nd to Rags to Riches
2008 - Big Brown (1-5) - Did not finish behind Da' Tara
2009 - Mine That Bird (6-5) - finished 3rd to Summer Bird
2010 - Ice Box (9-5) - finished 9th to Drosselmeyer
2011 - Animal Kingdom (5-2) - finished 6th to Ruler On Ice
2012 - Dullahan (5-2) - finished 7th to Union Rags
2013 - Orb (2-1) - finished 3rd to Palace Malice
2014 - California Chrome (4-5) - finished 4th to Tonalist
2015 - American Pharoah (3-5) - Winner
2016 - Exaggerator (7-5) - finished 11th to Creator
In that same time period, we saw some mouth watering win prices, including last year's $34.80 on Creator, $51.50 for Ruler On Ice in 2011, and the $79.00 returned for Da' Tara in 2008, not to mention other double digit winners in recent years -- Palace Malice and Drosselmeyer.
Of course the biggest payoff to win in Belmont Stakes history came outside of the last eleven years, but it has not been all that long since Sarava tilted the tote, paying $142.50 for a two-dollar win bet back in 2002.
Perhaps the trend for upsetting the favorite in the Belmont Stakes all began back in 1979, when the seemingly invincible Spectacular Bid was shocked in his quest for a Triple Crown, finishing third to Coastal at odds of 1-5. Beginning with that edition, there have been only seven favorites to win the mile-and-a-half classic, or 18% of the time.
That's a very significant trend spanning nearly four decades, where favorites have won significantly less than half as often as the first hundred years plus.
And if you are thinking that the biggest favorites of all might be less likely to fall into the upset trap in the Belmont, consider this. Much like Spectacular Bid 38 years ago, recent odds-on favorites have taken it on the chin. There have been nine horses to enter the starting gate since Affirmed won the Triple Crown in 1978. Only one of them was able to make it to the winner's circle.
1979 - Spectacular Bid (1-5) - finished 3rd to Coastal
1981 - Pleasant Colony (4-5) - finished 3rd to Summing
1987 - Alysheba (4-5) - finished 4th to Bet Twice
1989 - Sunday Silence (4-5) - finished 2nd to Easy Goer
1998 - Real Quiet (4-5) - finished 2nd to Victory Gallop
2004 - Smarty Jones (2-5) - finished 2nd to Birdstone
2008 - Big Brown (1-5) - Did not finish behind Da' Tara
2014 - California Chrome (4-5) - finished 4th to Tonalist
2015 - American Pharoah (3-5) - Winner
Of course, the one thing that all of them had in common was winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. We do not have that this year. What we do have is the potential for a pretty big favorite, in a juvenile champion who has run very well in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness.
What's it all mean for Classic Empire and this year's Belmont Stakes? Perhaps nothing, but at the very least it's a clear trend of which we should be aware.