Separating Belmont 2018 contenders from pretenders

Will he, or won't he? All eyes will be on Justify when the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner puts his perfect record on the line Saturday in the 2018 Belmont Stakes. The race is a culmination of a six-race odyssey which has seen him go from unraced maiden to the doorstep of immortality in a matter of months. This one figures to be his toughest test yet, given the 12-furlong distance and nine rivals. Without further ado, let's take a look at the field of ten, separating who I consider to be the contenders from the pretenders ...

The Contenders
 
Justify 4-5 (Scat Daddy – Baffert/Smith – 5-5-0-0)

Unbeaten and thriving, with controlling speed, it's easy to see why the son of Scat Daddy can become only the 13th Triple Crown champion in American racing history. The distance of 1 1/2 miles could be his downfall, though, as he looks to carry his tactical speed far farther than ever. Certainly a big threat to win, he'll look to work out a comfortable early pace with rider Mike Smith, so that he has plenty in the tank for the long stretch run of the Belmont Stakes. If he has to work hard at any point early in the race, however, he may fall short just like so many contenders have over the years.

Hofburg 9-2 (Tapit – Mott/I. Ortiz – 4-1-1-0)

Even more lightly raced than Justify is this son of Tapit from the barn of Bill Mott. In the Florida Derby, and then a Kentucky Derby better than it looks on paper, the colt proved that he belongs in top company. Trained by a master, and sired by the dominant Belmont stallion of recent years, there is every reason in the world to believe that he will be able to handle the trip. Rested since the Kentucky Derby, which is an advantage over the top one, Hofburg should be ready to fire his best shot on Saturday, and is one of the main threats to stop a Triple Crown.

Vino Rosso 8-1 (Curlin – Pletcher/Velazquez – 6-3-0-1)

Coming back from the Kentucky Derby, this son of Curlin was caked in the slop that covered the main track at Churchill Downs. A wide trip to boot, I believe that race was largely a throw-out performance for the impressive Wood Memorial winner. Perhaps more than any other horse in the crop, he seems to be crying out for the distance that he will find in the final leg of the Triple Crown. Like Hofburg, he rested while Justify was working hard at Pimlico. Better early position than he found in the Kentucky Derby will be key for him to have a real shot at the top of the lane.

The Pretenders
 
Bravazo 8-1 (Awesome Again – Lukas/L. Saez – 10-3-2-1)

He looked good winning the Risen Star, before throwing in a stinker in the Louisiana Derby, but that is forgotten after a good Kentucky Derby, and a very good Preakness. Closely related to Oxbow, and from the same connections, he'll look to track Justify early and make his move on the turn. Off his last one, I certainly could have placed him in the contenders list, but I just have a feeling that a demanding race schedule will catch up with him when the real running begins at Belmont.

Tenfold 12-1 (Curlin – Asmussen/Santana – 4-2-0-1)

The second talented son of Curlin in the field, he ran a bang-up race to finish a close-up third at Baltimore while making only his fourth career start. That performance came after a decent, but not great run behind Magnum Moon in the Arkansas Derby. Another move forward puts him in with a fighting chance in here, with a similar type of running style as Bravazo. But after such a big Preakness, I believe a regression is the more likely outcome at this grueling trip.

Gronkowski 12-1 (Lonhro – Brown/J. Ortiz – 6-4-1-0)

It's hard to know how his European form will translate here, as the competition looks light comparatively. Still, the European style of training as a foundation, and a transfer to the Chad Brown barn, make him at least an interesting proposition. Expecting a victory for the horse with a famous name seems a stretch, but he is eligible to run a better race than expected on Saturday.

Blended Citizen 15-1 (Proud Citizen – O’Neill/Frey – 10-3-0-2)

To tell you the truth, I wasn't a big fan of this one before his Peter Pan win, but I have to admit that he looked good rallying down the lane on the Belmont main track. Perhaps dirt is his best surface after all, but dramatic moves up in both distance and competition are a little more than I am willing to endorse. Having said that, I would not be surprised if he is one passing tiring horses to cash a check.  

Noble Indy 30-1 (Take Charge Indy – Pletcher/Castellano – 5-3-0-1)

He proved game when beating the likes of My Boy Jack, Lone Sailor, and Bravazo in the Louisiana Derby. Unfortunately, he did little running on the first Saturday of May. Going into that one, I did not like his chances, and see little reason to get on him now. Maybe if Justify was not in the field he could make a real run at it on the front end, but I can't see him beating the Derby and Preakness winner when the screws get turned on Saturday.

Free Drop Billy 30-1 (Union Rags – Romans/Albarado – 9-2-3-2)

He is a handsome son of a Belmont winner, but other than that, I cannot find too much to recommend. You can't say that he hasn't had his chances this year, and even in the Blue Grass, I do not believe the trouble hurt his ultimate result. His connections keep trying, but I think a little class relief will do him some good.

Restoring Hope 30-1 (Giant’s Causeway – Baffert/Geroux – 5-1-1-2)

Like Noble Indy, he is one that could either keep Justify company early, or perhaps even give him a target at which to run. I'm sure his owners believe he has a shot, but clearly he is not the Baffert runner to beat. Throw out the last one in the Pat Day Mile because of the track condition, but still, he looks quite likely to finish up in the bottom half of this field.