Belmont Stakes 2016 Live Longshot -- Governor Malibu

Governor Malibu is your prototypical grinder. He doesn’t possess a great deal of early speed, nor does he bring to the table a ferocious late run that blows by the field. So why should we care about this 2016 Belmont Stakes longshot? Trained and ridden by the winning Belmont connections of two years ago, this is one horse with a real chance to upset the apple cart – that’s why. Actually, the son of Malibu Moon will enter the final leg of the Triple Crown as the most talked about of the group joining the series for the first time, but that could still land him a spot as one of the five or six longest shots in the field. After all, he has never run in a Grade 1 race before, nor has he ever run farther than nine furlongs. Still, there is plenty to like about the Christophe Clement-trained New York-bred.

Owned by Jump Sucker Stable and Oak Bluff Stables, to this point, he has been both a model of consistency, as well as, an improving horse. In seven lifetime starts, Governor Malibu has never finished out of the money. In fact, he has finished first or second in all of his races, other than finishing third in his stakes debut as a two-year-old. He also shows every sign of a maturing, improving three-year-old. After breaking his maiden in his fourth and final start last year, the chestnut colt has run in nothing but stakes races this year. In each of those sophomore efforts, the level of competition has risen, and Governor Malibu has demonstrated each time that he belongs.

He has the experience, but not too much experience. That sounds like a contradiction, but two things that have proven to be a benefit going into the Belmont Stakes, are: experience over the track, and a level of freshness compared to horse that have run in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Governor Malibu checks both boxes. He has run at Belmont Park three times, including a very good effort here in his last start. If your name isn’t American Pharoah, it has been a clear advantage in recent years to have skipped one of the first two legs, if not both. He comes in as one of the fresher horses in the race. While Exaggerator was being pushed in Louisville and Baltimore, Governor Malibu was prepping for this one in the Grade 2 Peter Pan.

It is a similar plan that was used so well by Tonalist, when he won the Belmont Stakes in 2014. And don’t underestimate the fact that Clement and rider Joel Rosario have experience in this race. The Belmont is an unusual and tricky race. That winning experience can only benefit their charge this year, Governor Malibu.

Call him a grinder, but Governor Malibu's running style should suit him well. If you look back at his win in the Gander Stakes three starts back, Governor Malibu proved what he can do off a slow pace. Positioned in striking position early that day, he is a horse that can be placed where you need him depending on the pace. This is another advantage in the Belmont Stakes, where the riders need to both tactical and patient. I also like the way he leveled off late and powered home in his first start of 2016, as well as, his initial stakes victory. Finishing off his races well does fit his pedigree of Malibu Moon—Akalina, by Langfuhr, a breeding that suggests he is a horse that will be just fine as the distances increase.

His best race yet was his last race. In between the Gander and the Peter Pan, he was disqualified after just getting up in the Fedrico Tesio Stakes, another race in which he displayed the want to finish off the race well, but it was in his last one in which he demonstrated his class. I am of the belief that Unified is a Grade 1 caliber horse, so for Governor Malibu to make a race of it down the lane, is a feather in his cap. The Peter Pan also showed that he can run fast. After a few slow times, on slow tracks, it was nice to see to see the improving colt run a sub-1:48 nine-furlongs.

While Exaggerator figures to be the clear choice, with Suddenbreakingnews, Stradivari, and Destin also likely to be well backed, we are almost certain to get a square price on Governor Malibu. At odds in the neighborhood of 20-1 on Saturday, I am looking forward to including this live longshot on all of my tickets.